What the heck happened?

[R. C.]

This question applies to AMS, Facebook ADs, BookBub, and Google Ads. Taboola and WrittenWord seem to function well. (Fingers crossed it doesn’t change.)

We all know that marketing platforms change their tools (algorithms) to suit their needs. Sales are another topic. This query is focused on achieving impressions. For years, I have been able to set up and manage campaigns that generate a lot of impressions. I could present my ADs to thousands of viewers for not much money. 

However, the number of impressions on the platforms has been awful for a few months. In fact, after running for a couple of weeks, then tweaking, and running a couple of more weeks, Google and FB have nearly zero impressions.

I’ve tweaked keywords, CPC, target audience, total budget, geography, technology (desktop versus mobile), AD dimensions, and AD content, but nothing seems to improve the performance.

Does anyone have insight into what happened to cause the dramatic shift in the algorithms for AD presentation?

Thanks in advance.
RC.

[TimothyEllis]

Just guessing, but woke influence?

The censorship across social media platforms has been stepped up dramatically this year, and hidden behind terms like 'fact checking' and the like.

If your ad content even slightly deviates from the narrative wanted, it's likely the algorithms are making sure its not seen.

Cynical yes. But just the few posts I've had on Quora deleted by the bots suggests this is getting worse, and people are complaining about it a lot now across platforms.

[alhawke]

We've seen the trends of worsening sales and clicks with ads over the last ten years. The question is, where is it all going? I don't think anything's better for trad publishers. But it really makes me wonder why it's so hard to sell now. There's more people in the world, not less.
I'm not answering your question, R.C., just agreeing with it.

[Jeff Tanyard]

I don't know, but I'll add the possibility of internet or site outages resetting algorithms and whatnot.   

[Post-Crisis D]

If the issue is lowered impressions, ad blockers could be playing a role.

I never used to use ad blockers because an ad here and there never bothered me.  But, now, so many sites are just littered with ads.  It's crazy.  I mean, even on sites you'd consider reputable, sometimes they have more ads than actual content.  And that's not to mention the sites that are just set up to generate ad impressions and/or clicks.  Like sites that have a supposed news story or whatever, but then they spread the story one or two sentences at a time over ten or twenty or more pages.  I've learned that game.  I suspect others have as well.  I either ignore such links or have learned how to speed through them to minimize ads loading and all that garbage.

Again, a few ads don't bother me.  I know sites need to make money.  In the past, I've run ads on my own sites.  But, these days, the ad to content ratio is so out of whack on so many sites, it is like screw you, I'm blocking the stupid ads.  And, if I get that, oh, turn off your ad blocker because waaa waaa waaa, then it's like, screw you, I don't need to visit your site anymore.

Granted, I'm just one anecdotal case, but I suspect others do the same: use ad blockers and/or avoid sites that are laden with ads.  Also, lots of times, I just have Javascript turned off because that shuts down a bunch of ads and other garbage too.

So, that could be another reason for fewer ad impressions and, thus, fewer sales.

[R. C.]

UDPATE - UPDATE - UPDATE

After several weeks of futile attempts to generate impressions, I gave in and contacted support for FB Ads and Google Ads.

Google ADs - The short answer is targeting a geography as wide as the "US" now requires this: "recommended budget would be around $55-60 per day." Emphasis added by me. Targeting a "city could be as low a $10-12 per day."

I switched the geography to my state. I'll keep you posted.

FB ADs - This is a little more complex. I was targeting people interested in reading, a specific genre, in the US. Initially, I was told the algorthms for FB Ads do not like a well defined audience. They perfer to issue as many impressions as possible. Of course, this is counter the the market strategy of defining a target market well enough to justify a higher CPC. When I questioned the answer, the support agent switched and said I should narrow the target audience to a specific genre.

I pulled way back on the targeting, using just a couple of audiences. I'll keep you posted.


UPDATE TO THE UPDATE

While writing the response above, after weeks of ZERO results, Google Ads is issuing impressions.

R.C.

[alhawke]

Be cautious with Google Ads. I was getting impressions but lackluster to zero sales. So I stopped using it.
And... wow:

Google ADs - The short answer is targeting a geography as wide as the "US" now requires this: "recommended budget would be around $55-60 per day."

If ads keep driving up in cost, I don't see an avenue for indie writers or small businesses. I don't get it. We have more things available but we seem to be losing avenues for sales. Where's all this money coming from? $55/day is absurd for writers That's $1650 per month, $20k per year. (Unless you suddenly hit some kind of ad ceiling where your revenue jumps into the tens of thousands , I can't afford this sort of publishing ad madness). Maybe Google ads is only for big business?

[Lorri Moulton]

I saw this happen years ago with a different business.  Rates went from $20 a day to about $300 a day.  Crazy high! That's one reason I don't do paid ads.  You can't depend on rates to make a long-term business plan. 

Paid newsletters once in a while, even the occasional ad to bump sales can really work, but every week, all the time...too risky.  (Not saying this doesn't work for some, but I'm risk-averse with this one.)

[Post-Crisis D]

Yep.  I stopped using Google Ads years ago.  One reason, of course, was being banned.  But, before that, I had stopped using Google Ads for my best selling physical product because the bids on ads meant that I lost money even if I got a sale.  I guess some count on repeat business but since most buyers are one-time buyers, even if a percentage of them become repeat buyers, you're still losing money.

[writeway]

Not sure if you've been hanging around in various author circles but if so you'd see that sales, reads, ads, everything is down for many authors. Some are doing okay but many have had sales tanked.

Let me give a stab of what I think it is.

1. Wars- If you research book sales (for some reason) always drop with wars going on. I'm guessing because some people spend more time glued to reading or watching anything to do with the war. You can add me to the list. I don't know how I got into it but several times a day I am on Ukraine Reddit reading about the war and that's how I keep up with it. But, yeah, they say book sales tend to be bad during wars.

2. Inflation- Prices are creeping up again. Many readers can't afford to buy books like they used to especially if they are not in KU. People have less disposable income and when that happens, for many, books are the first things to go. They're not gonna get rid of their streaming services, sports tickets, concert tickets, food budget, cellphone, or clothes budget, heck no. But books, yep, if people need to save some money they can go without books. There are also tons of free books and libraries so for many that's more appealing than paying $5.99 each for several books.

3. Just Not Reading- Not only are sales down for many authors right now but so are KU reads. Even my KU reads have been "ewe" and I do pretty well usually. Seems like no amount of promotion or releasing does much right now. I'm betting readers just aren't reading right now. That's what it feels like. I'm an example of that. I let my KU subscription go about two months ago, not because I didn't like KU but because I have other stuff I am doing including writing my own books so I haven't had time to read in KU.

4. It's freaking springtime! I live in Houston, Texas and the rodeo's been going on for about a month. Everyone is going. People are finally out of the Covid funk and doing more things again. The weather's been nice and people wanna go out and have fun. They're going to waterparks, amusement parks, pools, the beach, the movies, the zoo, museums, on vacations, etc. The last thing some people wanna do right now is sit in the house reading a book. Doesn't mean they won't get back to that but even voracious readers don't read all the time. Just so much to do right now and people are going out more than ever. Not to mention it's March Madness, Baseball season's coming and Basketball season's getting ready for playoffs. The French Open will be starting soon, the golf tournaments, so much going on now. And let's not mention there is concert season. Seems like everyone and their momma is having a tour right now.

The world is busy right now and so many have other things to do and think about and don't have the time to read or buy books right now. Many authors have stopped pouring money into ads right now because it's been a dry spell.

My advice is to find some way to promote where you aren't spending a bunch of money so you can still have an ROI and not having to throw money away. It doesn't make sense to keep running ads if they aren't producing. You might as well flush money down the toilet.

Try other ways to promote that are low cost or free like swaps or doing promos on BookFunnel or joining multiauthor boxsets.

I stopped doing click ads years ago, BTW.

[TimothyEllis]

Not sure if you've been hanging around in various author circles but if so you'd see that sales, reads, ads, everything is down for many authors. Some are doing okay but many have had sales tanked.

Let me give a stab of what I think it is.

1. Wars- If you research book sales (for some reason) always drop with wars going on. I'm guessing because some people spend more time glued to reading or watching anything to do with the war. You can add me to the list. I don't know how I got into it but several times a day I am on Ukraine Reddit reading about the war and that's how I keep up with it. But, yeah, they say book sales tend to be bad during wars.

2. Inflation- Prices are creeping up again. Many readers can't afford to buy books like they used to especially if they are not in KU. People have less disposable income and when that happens, for many, books are the first things to go. They're not gonna get rid of their streaming services, sports tickets, concert tickets, food budget, cellphone, or clothes budget, heck no. But books, yep, if people need to save some money they can go without books. There are also tons of free books and libraries so for many that's more appealing than paying $5.99 each for several books.

3. Just Not Reading- Not only are sales down for many authors right now but so are KU reads. Even my KU reads have been "ewe" and I do pretty well usually. Seems like no amount of promotion or releasing does much right now. I'm betting readers just aren't reading right now. That's what it feels like. I'm an example of that. I let my KU subscription go about two months ago, not because I didn't like KU but because I have other stuff I am doing including writing my own books so I haven't had time to read in KU.

4. It's freaking springtime! I live in Houston, Texas and the rodeo's been going on for about a month. Everyone is going. People are finally out of the Covid funk and doing more things again. The weather's been nice and people wanna go out and have fun. They're going to waterparks, amusement parks, pools, the beach, the movies, the zoo, museums, on vacations, etc. The last thing some people wanna do right now is sit in the house reading a book. Doesn't mean they won't get back to that but even voracious readers don't read all the time. Just so much to do right now and people are going out more than ever. Not to mention it's March Madness, Baseball season's coming and Basketball season's getting ready for playoffs. The French Open will be starting soon, the golf tournaments, so much going on now. And let's not mention there is concert season. Seems like everyone and their momma is having a tour right now.

The world is busy right now and so many have other things to do and think about and don't have the time to read or buy books right now. Many authors have stopped pouring money into ads right now because it's been a dry spell.

My advice is to find some way to promote where you aren't spending a bunch of money so you can still have an ROI and not having to throw money away. It doesn't make sense to keep running ads if they aren't producing. You might as well flush money down the toilet.

Try other ways to promote that are low cost or free like swaps or doing promos on BookFunnel or joining multiauthor boxsets.

I stopped doing click ads years ago, BTW.

I stopped in 2019, when I spent a lot of money on ads, and got zero back. Not done any sort of paid ads since.

I can't disagree with any of the quote, BUT, I'm one is currently doing better than at any time since the second half of 2018. And that's after 2023 was a long slow fade out for me, although not disastrous, just belt tightening a bit.

In spite of the quotes some things have changed. And they seem to be working for me for a change.

Amazon is sending out new release emails again, and also using the reader app to notify people.

The war with Bookbub appears to be over, with ranks almost back to the time lag they used to be.

And in spite of the comment on KU, reads haven't gone down. Mine are way way up.

And in spite of the comment on the US, my US component has risen from 74% to 86% in just 3 months. My readership in the UK and Aus hasn't changed, but my readership in the US has significantly gone up.

So while I can't disagree with the quote, it's not my experience.

My guess is that those reliant on ads, are now suffering because then entire ads system seems to be floundering.

Those who baled out of ads years ago, and just concentrated on writing and keeping the fanbase happy, are now riding a wave as the fan base is now being told about new releases better.

Last time I looked, I had 6800 followers on Amazon. And yet, that seemed utterly ridiculous based on last year's sales and reads. And yet, this year, that number seems less ridiculous. It's like twice as many actually know I'm putting a book out now, and are buying in the first week. That's still well short of that 6800, but I'll take the win.

So whatever is happening, it's a lot more complicated than we can see.

There is something else though. Feb 2024 saw a change in the 20 year Feng Shui cycle. We entered the period of fire. And for some, there will be huge changes in progress. Up or down, and mainly to do with where the water is around where they live. But there's no way of generalizing that, as there are 16 different charts, and the same 'thing' can be in 16 different positions. The last time this happened was 2004, and people had their lives blown apart without knowing why. But others had wins. Same thing happening now.

[RBC]

Maybe with economy recovering the ad prices are going up, not impressions going down. If businesses are doing better, the competition is higher and that means cheaper ads don't get shown as much to the same people if FB/Big G can show expensive ads instead. It's not just competition of authors competing with authors to show ads, it's everyone else too aiming for the same people. And we're the small fish in the pond.

PPC and marketing in general has the trend to get more expensive as time goes. Also, marketing channels lose effectiveness if it's a free channel. Life just can't make it easy for us.

[Post-Crisis D]

I stopped in 2919, when I spent a lot of money on ads, and got zero back. Not done any sort of paid ads since.

Aside from ads, how were things in 2919?  Did AI take over? 

[TimothyEllis]

I stopped in 2919, when I spent a lot of money on ads, and got zero back. Not done any sort of paid ads since.

Aside from ads, how were things in 2919?  Did AI take over? 

I wish I was there now. That's 200 years after when I'm writing, but the medical facilities should be able to cure me by then.

[Post-Crisis D]

I stopped in 2919, when I spent a lot of money on ads, and got zero back. Not done any sort of paid ads since.

Aside from ads, how were things in 2919?  Did AI take over? 

I wish I was there now. That's 200 years after when I'm writing, but the medical facilities should be able to cure me by then.

Pull a Henry Starling and steal yourself a holographic doctor from the future.

[TimothyEllis]

I stopped in 2919, when I spent a lot of money on ads, and got zero back. Not done any sort of paid ads since.

Aside from ads, how were things in 2919?  Did AI take over? 

I wish I was there now. That's 200 years after when I'm writing, but the medical facilities should be able to cure me by then.

Pull a Henry Starling and steal yourself a holographic doctor from the future.

I've asked for one of my time traveling mages to bring me something like that, but alas, nothing has turned up yet.

[Crystal]

If you're not getting impressions, you're likely not bidding high enough.

The economics of PPC ads don't really support $5 books anymore.

[alhawke]

If you're not getting impressions, you're likely not bidding high enough.
The economics of PPC ads don't really support $5 books anymore.

Over past couple weeks, I'm finding impressions running down the ads, but few bites. Less sales. It's sort of the inverse problem, but it's costing me more. I'm trying to alternate to other ads. (mine are all advertised via BookBub).

A more pessimistic possibility is that authors aren't advertising as much. These ads often rely on co-marketing with other authors/books. If they're no advertising as much, you're not going to get as many bites. That's just a thought.

But judging by promos dwindling sales, maybe people are just not reading?

[PJ Post]

The pie is being divided into more and more slices. I'm afraid it's only going to get worse.

[RBC]

The pie is being divided into more and more slices. I'm afraid it's only going to get worse.

You think there is a big influx of new authors coming? Or with selfpub being harder, it's not growing as fast as it could be?

[PJ Post]

You think there is a big influx of new authors coming? Or with selfpub being harder, it's not growing as fast as it could be?

I think we're in an attention economy, so it's increasingly difficult to be heard above the noise. We're competing with social media, streaming, sports, you name it. For self-publishing, supply outpaced demand a long time ago and the imbalance is only getting worse, which is why all of the older marketing tricks aren't working as well anymore.

I think we need new ideas.

[R. C.]

You think there is a big influx of new authors coming? Or with selfpub being harder, it's not growing as fast as it could be?

I think we're in an attention economy, so it's increasingly difficult to be heard above the noise. We're competing with social media, streaming, sports, you name it. For self-publishing, supply outpaced demand a long time ago and the imbalance is only getting worse, which is why all of the older marketing tricks aren't working as well anymore.

I think we need new ideas.

PJ has provided a precise encapsulation of the overarching problem.

In a saturated market, selling discretionary products, requires either 1) a lot of marketing capital, 2) a unique proposition that can pierce the clutter, or 3) a lot of patience and hope.

Patience is a strategy. Hope is not.

An update on my efforts. 
KDP Ads – Pointless.
Facebook Ads – Pointless.
Google Ads – I can generate impressions at a reasonable CPC, but there have been no sales thus far.
Taboola – Lots of impressions at a very low CPC. There are a few sales, but the ADs quickly become “tired.” A frequent refresh is required.

R.C.

[TimothyEllis]

In a saturated market,

I wish people would stop saying that.

The market size on KDP is about 500,000 books, give or take. It's been that way for years.

That represents all books currently selling 1 book a month or more. (Or getting a KU download that month, or more.)

That's the market size. Everything else drops into the abyss, and then down into the bottomless pit.

There's 2 tricks here. The first is getting your book into that top 500k. The second is getting it onto the top 100 category lists.

If you can do the second, then most of the hard work is done.

The market is not saturated.

It's not even all that large. If more people sell more books, then the 500k will expand a bit to maybe 600k.

New books drop into that 500k, and push out the old ones not selling. That's been what's been going on since I started in 2015.

All that's changed is that 500k, I think, is a bit bigger now than originally.

The bunfight is getting visibility, and then getting more of it, or holding onto it.

I've not used AMS since 2019. I've not used FB ads since well before that. I've never done Google ads. Never been able to get a Bookbub feature, and not used their ads. And I've not done a promo since 2019 either.

[Crystal]

Tim, I'm not really following your logic. If "the market" is the top 500k and there are over 1.5 million books, then by definition, there are 3x the books the market needs, so the market is quite oversaturated.

[alhawke]

Here's just a thought about this. I was listening to music via Alexa in the US (you guys have Alexa in Australia now, right?). I chose some music via Spotify. After the song was over, Spotify chose music based on its AI algorithms of what it thought I wanted. Youtube does this too. The choice was pretty good. Actually, really good. The algos are getting better and better. But, the similar music might have been to my taste, but it was top "popular" music. I don't know about you, but I like to dabble in unpopular music from bands I like.

Youtube and social media works like this. Though there are so many more eyes and ears out there, they're all seeing and hearing the same thing now. What a crazy effect.

My point? The market is saturated by more than numbers. AI is getting very good at matching our tastes, but it tends to just showcase the top. This limits art because it perpetually shows the same thing over and over again. Even though there are more people in the world, this becomes a feedback loop of listening, or reading, the same stuff. If this trickles down to advertising, it could move readers to NYT bestsellers primarily, as an example. So, the technology's getting better. That's good news for the top writers in the world. But what of the rest of us? Anyway, just a thought. I could be completely wrong... but it would explain diminishing advertising and sales for Indie writers.

[R. C.]

Re: Market Saturation - A Counter Point

Market saturation is evident when the market growth trajectory of a specific product stagnates or reaches a zenith. In the simplest form, the supply of the product becomes much higher than the demand. Including self-published and commercially published, over 4 million new books were published in 2022. Total U.S. book sales hit 788.7 million units in 2022 across all print sales — a 4.5% decrease from 2021. Further Book gross revenue is down from the peak of 31.8b to 29.8b and continues to trend negatively. (Zippia)

More succinctly, market saturation happens when a product reaches its maximum potential with its customer base. Traditionally, this means supply significantly outruns demand. When a group of suppliers reaches a market's saturation point, they must find new revenue stream processes to incentivize buying. Self-publishing is constantly searching for ways to incentivize buying.

An overabundance of products can create both macroeconomic and microeconomic saturation. For our discussion, in the macro case, customers can access countless products (books), resulting in a saturated market affecting all suppliers (self-publishers).

BUT, it is a HUGE market! How can it be saturated?

Tens of thousands of sellers are actively uploading books, with new titles being available daily. Since 2018, the number of available KDP books has risen nearly 300%. BookBolt

How do we compete in the market where we are all trying to break the barrier and get access to our competitor's customers? The traditional principles. Creative innovations — Write a good book. Effective pricing — loss leaders, genre-specific price definitions, etc. Unique marketing — Ads that grab eyes but not any eyes. Find the eyes that want to read. Of course, fiction book consumers use a limited quantity of discretionary funds. This brings us to the protective nature of a loyal customer base versus competitors (us) trying to "pull" consumers to a new product offering.

We are all fighting for a market share in an increasingly competitive, increasingly supplied, and increasingly fickle market.

Market saturation doesn't mean giving up. To me, it means finding another path. It has taken me years to believe in my writing (oh wow, was it bad initially). I am getting decent reviews (not many, but a few good ones). Maybe I can succeed in getting my books into the top 500k and/or onto the top 100 category list of a saturated market.

R.C.

[Post-Crisis D]

Regardless of whether you want to view the market as saturated or not, the bottom line is that there are more books available than even the above average reader is ever going to be able to read in their lifetime.  Granted, that would seem to suggest the market is saturated, and has been, but the saturation issue doesn't really matter.

The issue is visibility.

There are two potential markets for books, depending on your target audience.

One is the mass market or semi-mass market.  There are voracious readers that will read every specific genre book they can find that sounds moderately interesting to them.  This could be horror, romance, fantasy, scifi, whatever.  And, those can be broken down into more specific categories, like adventure scifi or space opera or post apocalyptic urban fantasy or whatever.

In that market, there are plenty of readers but also plenty of books available.  It is going to be tough being seen.  Now, it doesn't matter if your competition is selling thirty books an hour or three books a decade.  The books are available to be found either way and your book gets lost in the vast sea of books, regardless of how well they sell.  The ones that sell get better visibility but the ones that don't sell are still out there.  And, many of the authors of those books that don't sell are trying to get boosted into the ranks of books that do sell.  So, a lot of competition out there and gaining visibility is likely to be costly.

The second market are readers specifically interested in your work.  In that market, you don't have much competition.  Your potential competitors are ones that have books that fit into "if you like books by so-and-so [that's you], then you'll like these books."  But, that is only going to be effective for that subset of readers that like your stuff but also like other books in your category and sort of fall into the first market but still like your stuff best.  Either way, your readers are going to keep buying your stuff so long as you fulfill their reading desires.

The second market is harder to find but more loyal once you do find them.  In the first market, your book is just a hamburger.  In the second market, your book is filet mignon.  Or, if you're reading this in 2030, your book is ground up crickets and mealworms in the first market and a black market hamburger in the second market.

How do we reach those latter readers?  Well, that is the multi-million dollar question.  I guess maybe hire a good PR team and then date a popular pop star or something.

[TimothyEllis]

Tim, I'm not really following your logic. If "the market" is the top 500k and there are over 1.5 million books, then by definition, there are 3x the books the market needs, so the market is quite oversaturated.

There are something well over 50 MILLION books on Amazon, and that was math from several years ago before low content began. The paid ranks go up to around 15 million, and so do the free ranks, so we know there are minimum 30 million, but that doesn't include all the never ranked books and those which stopped selling.

Total U.S. book sales hit 788.7 million units in 2022 across all print sales — a 4.5% decrease from 2021.

"all print sales." That's not total sales. Just the Trad portion of the market, and the eBook portion where the books have an ISBN, which is only a fraction of them.

You're buying into the Trad doom and gloom figures, because the Trads are declining.

They overprice, they don't understand categories and keywords on Amazon, and they DON'T represent actual sales numbers.

Amazon does not release sales numbers. So any figures out there are WRONG.

There's been nothing accurate since Dataguy disappeared. And his figures were extrapolations, not hard data. But still better than anyone else's.

[Lorri Moulton]

30 million? I'm feeling SO much better about my rankings now. 

[PJ Post]

How do we reach those latter readers?  Well, that is the multi-million dollar question.

Um...I've been posting exactly how to do this for the last three months.

[TimothyEllis]

How do we reach those latter readers?  Well, that is the multi-million dollar question.

Um...I've been posting exactly how to do this for the last three months.

Not exactly. You've been posting high level ideas without any low level 'how to do it'.

'Use social media' is not actually useful.

How do you effectively use social media for conditions today? That's what people need to know.

I do a lot on social media, and I reach my existing fans, and that's about it.

[Crystal]

Books aren't a product people sell with smart economic principles, generally. Most people who write a book do so out of love or passion, not business acumen.

You can't assume people are writing more books because it is a logical business move.

Most people who write books do so because they love books.

I mean, who here, in this very thread, only writers a book if they good mathematical proof of an expectation the book will make a certain amount of money? If so, what's that amount? What salary does that fetch you?

I know, even when I've decided to write less because it makes less financial sense, I still *want* to write. I'm still a writer in my soul. I want to write in a different way, yes, at a different rate, and sometimes different products. But my drive to write is there whether I have good reason to believe a book will make me 50k or $5.

[Bill Hiatt]

Now, it doesn't matter if your competition is selling thirty books an hour or three books a decade.  The books are available to be found either way and your book gets lost in the vast sea of books, regardless of how well they sell.

There is a big difference between available to found and likely to be found.

I think Timothy's point is that books that have sold little or nothing in recent months are really only findable in a practical sense if you search by specific author and title. In other words, to find them, you need to already know they exist. If you search a genre or even a subgenre, such books, if they get listed at all, will be so many pages in that you will never see them.

Example: Look at the Kootenai Trees. I know about this book only because it was published by another Bill Hiatt in 1976. It does show up in search results for my name if you search in books. It shows up if you search by title using the exact title. But if I just type in a word like Kootenai, which can't be that common, I get 22 pages of results, none of which is the target book. This search does produce things as obscure as leatherbound environmental impact statements related to the Kootenai National Forest in Idaho, even though they aren't currently available. But it doesn't take me to Look at the Kootenai Trees, and at the end, it says "No results for kootenai in Books.
Try checking your spelling or use more general terms." This is odd, since it found me some results. But it didn't consider that particular one worth reporting.

You can bet the book isn't going to show up spontaneously anywhere else, either. The only way it shows is by author search or be relatively accurate title search.

Another example is an author I knew well when I first started. (I won't mention the name.) She was prominent in romance. Searching for her by name shows a lot of irrelevant stuff and two advice to writers books she published. Clicking on her name takes me to an author page where some of the romances appear. (They are generally in the 2 million or so bracket because she hasn't been active recently.) The fact that they didn't show up in an author search is telling, though.

Third example: One of my old shorts, "Angel Feather," appears erratically in searches. I think it sold one and now is back, but until recently, it didn't always appear in author searches. And unlike the author in the second example, I'm still active. But that particular title was in the process of disappearing.

In other words, there are a lot of books on Amazon that will show up only if you know exactly what you're looking for. Even an author search may not always do the trick. An exact title search will do. Looking at the author page will do it, though it will be hidden at first.

Are such books in real competition with us? No. They're in the abyss. Unless you know they're there, you're likely never find them.

So yeah, technically saturated, but only a small part of the product is really accessible.

 

[Hopscotch]

Bill/Tim's comments that books that sell little are not noticeable on Amazon bc they are shunted so far down the "products related to" carousel a reader never will spot them.  So backlists are basically useless for income unless you write frequent bestsellers to spark readers to search your correctly spelled author name for another read but if you can write frequent bestsellers why care about your backlist? 

[LilyBLily]

I agree with Timothy (and Bill) about the abyss. Most of us have a book or a few books that we simply can't sell. They're listed in the online stores and on our websites, but we do nothing active to try to sell them because we know they don't sell and likely never will unless to a diehard superfan who will read anything we've written. Those superfans are very rare birds. As a reader, I won't follow an author I love to a subgenre I don't like; I can't expect other readers to cross over for my oddball books, either. 

So, effectively, I've got some books in the abyss. My first published book is at 1.5 million in the Amazon store--and that's the good news. A fellow writer I've known for years keeps publishing books that go straight to the abyss. Just checked on one and its rank is 3.5 million.

But wait! There's more! My least popular books don't show a rank at all, probably because they haven't sold a single copy in years.

Ouch. The abyss is deeper than 1.5 million and deeper than 3.5 million, too.

Oh, well. I keep writing and publishing books anyway.





 

[TimothyEllis]

So backlists are basically useless for income unless you write frequent bestsellers to spark readers to search your correctly spelled author name for another read but if you can write frequent bestsellers why care about your backlist?

Because at the end of the day, only the total really matters.

I'm currently selling across 75-90 books each day. That's a variance from .01c to $30 just after a launch, or $10 normally.

Most of those sales and KU reads are back list.

My second biggest sellers/reads at the moment are my first series. I'm not sure why, but the last series started sending people back to the beginning again.

I have a dozen non-fiction out there as well. While some of my novels reference one of them, they sell/get read periodically just on people scrolling through my back list. They all have ranks in the million range, but they get found because they're listed in my AC.

It doesn't really matter how someone finds you, but if they like what they found, they will look at your back list.