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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by TimothyEllis on April 29, 2024, 11:59:00 PM »
Indie publishing on the other hand is drowning in a mire of its own making. The "tsunami of crap" it was accused of 15 years is now very real.

I don't really agree with that.

Amazon is a bottomless pit.

The top 500,000 books sell, and the rest just sink down the abyss, and vanish.

They poured in hundreds of thousands of low content books, and they just vanished. People are still pouring them in 3 at a time, and they still vanish. Same with Bot drek. It just vanishes. Same with short books people think will make them a fortune.

The reality is now that if your book doesn't have pre-orders, doesn't sell on day 1, or doesn't get any KU downloads on day 1, it just vanishes. And after that, if the book stops selling, it is moved down to make way for one that is.

None of them impact on those selling at all.

The top 500k is pretty stable. Amazon moves things down over time, but sales keep a book there. What fails to sell is no threat to anything selling, nor does it make it harder to find them.

Over time I expect that 500k to reach 600k, but it doesn't seem to be in a hurry.

For now, the 'mire' is basically irrelevant to people who read a lot, and who hunt the top 100 lists and back catalogues of people on them.
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by The Bass Bagwhan on April 29, 2024, 11:41:50 PM »
Aside from the aside that digital publishing is a relatively new consideration in this sort of market analysis, absolutely nothing in this article isn't old news. For a hundred years, and especially in the late 20th century, trad publishers have gambled money on books and often don't win.  Blockbuster books have always subsidised midlist authors. Celebrity tell-all books and memoirs (sporting and political in particular) have always been bafflingly popular. Huge advances have sometimes failed, "sleepers" have sometimes inexplicably been best-sellers. The amounts being paid now are 21st century, but otherwise the business model in regards to curating a publishing list is exactly the same.
Even having to promote yourself as a trad author is nothing new. You had a four-week window of care-factor from the publisher after your book hit the shelves before they moved on to the next title. Savvy authors spent all year grinding through book club meetings, speaking at any sort of event where an author might be welcome ... an old trick was offering book stores that you'd sign their store copies to give them more appeal — sounds cool, but it prevented the stores from returning those copies as "Returns".
The greatest factor in success is still luck. There are so many best sellers that publishers will admit they can't explain the popularity in comparison to a dozen identical titles.
Tradpub was very, very slow in acknowledging the digital revolution, and it did look in danger of extinction. Now it dominates it with sheer money. You can be sure that when a Big Five publisher releases a new blockbuster, it sure as hell doesn't log into the KDP dashboard. Exclusive deals and agreements are reached behind closed doors.
Trad publishing has been adapting fast. It ain't going anywhere soon. Indie publishing on the other hand is drowning in a mire of its own making. The "tsunami of crap" it was accused of 15 years is now very real.
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Marketing Loft [Public] / Re: "Reading is so sexy," says Gen Z
« Last post by Hopscotch on April 28, 2024, 05:37:26 AM »
Dare we hope that Gen-Z decides books are “Newtro” enough to be cool?:

The ‘boring phone’: stressed-out gen Z ditch smartphones for dumbphones
Guardian   27 Apr 2024

“…The Boring Phone is part of a new dumbphone boom, built on the suspicion of gen Z towards the data- and attention-harvesting technologies they have grown up with. That suspicion has fuelled reinventions of retro cultural artefacts – a trend known as Newtro – and seen in the revival of vinyl records, cassettes, fanzines, 8-bit video games and old-fashioned mobile phones….”

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/apr/27/the-boring-phone-stressed-out-gen-z-ditch-smartphones-for-dumbphones
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by Hopscotch on April 28, 2024, 03:30:14 AM »
Nope, tradpub will never die.  Indie will never die.  Writers sucking up to rich "patrons of the arts" will never die.  Nor will buying their beer and sausage w/an academic salary as they write.  Relative success of each will go up and down.  But all will survive.  We've just got to ride the waves.  Or maybe mix 'em up.   
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by LilyBLily on April 28, 2024, 12:35:09 AM »
PW spotlighted Entangled recently and I was shocked that it has moved from mostly ebook to mostly hardcover with print runs as large as 850,000 copies for Rebecca Yarros's next romantasy. Entangled is feeling quite optimistic and perhaps rightly so; apparently she is a blockbuster author, an outlier who will make everyone involved a fortune.

A prior report on Entangled in March said they're planning on printing 30,000-60,000 copies of their typical hardcovers from other authors, with a $17.99 cover price. Good print numbers, but not earthshaking, and here's why:

Returns are a key measurement of how trad publishing is going. So my question is, what is the current rate of returns for hardcovers? For trade paper? Are they trending up or down? If they're trending up, then we know the trad pub business is on rocky ground--although unlikely to fall apart anytime soon. Historically, when returns trend up, profits go down, and the publisher has to seek other revenue streams to sustain it. Sub rights, usually. Ebooks. Audiobooks. Reasons why trad pub contracts now typically are big rights grabs and an author needs a tough agent to negotiate retaining their rights or getting a fair split with the publisher. Money is still being made, and publishing is still a big gamble. But what is the trend? 
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by Bill Hiatt on April 27, 2024, 11:15:10 PM »
There was quite a bit of discussion of the article and similar items over on Substack. (It may not be immediately obvious, but the article is, in fact, a Substack post. People can use their own domain name on Substack if they want.)

Anyway, I don't recall all of the give-and-take, but the gist was that the quotes in the article don't tell the full story.

Here's a sample of the response. https://countercraft.substack.com/p/yes-people-do-buy-books?

We all know that trad publishing has its issues, but keep in mind that the publishers quoted were involved in antitrust litigation and eager to make the best case they could for how terrible things are.

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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by TimothyEllis on April 27, 2024, 09:59:17 PM »
Interesting breakdown of Trad publishing, and it's worse than I thought.

I think I agree with the conclusion, the Trads are going to die, but not as fast as stated. It's going to be a long slow self strangulation. One that is already well underway.

[Moved this, as it's not really about marketing, but discussing the Trad model.]
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by LilyBLily on April 27, 2024, 01:56:39 PM »
Interesting that the bread-and butter earners for trad pubs are now franchise authors. Still genre, just less trend-driven.
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by Matthew on April 27, 2024, 12:53:33 PM »
Interesting write-up, hadn't heard of The Trial.

This confirms a few things I suspected, mainly, even the big names hardly earn out their advances, and trad pub wants to spend as little on marketing as possible. The second point is why it never interested me. If I have to do all of the work of building up the audience to begin with, what do I need trad pub for?

The rest of the doom and gloom ... I think we could have expected.

So many interesting tidbits copied into that article. Thanks for sharing, it's worth the read.
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Quill and Feather Pub [Public] / Re: Article: No one buys books
« Last post by elleoco on April 27, 2024, 07:56:39 AM »
From what I see on reader forums, there are voracious Romance readers determined not to pay anything for their books. They use Libby and other sources like that. At a guess some have no problem with piracy. However, I don't believe "no one" buys books. As a voracious reader myself I have a monthly book budget to keep it under control and do get ebooks from the library and KU, and also use up that book budget every month. There are even a few authors whose overpriced traditionally published ebooks I buy every year rather than wait until I can get them at the library. I also see a lot of posts on those forums by readers who are like me or who do buy hard copies of their books.
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