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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by PJ Post on August 20, 2025, 10:08:37 PM »
The point of the articles is to highlight that the reading and publishing world is experience meaningful change - change that will affect readership and sales. KDP and self-publishing was a massive change, so we've seen similar disruption first hand. Smartphones were a disruption. Social media is another. AI is the latest.

To remain relevant, publishing will need to change too.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by Post-Doctorate D on August 20, 2025, 01:53:41 AM »
I used to keep track of the books I read by writing down the time and date I finished reading a book in a journal.

So, I would have been able to tell you how many books I read in a year.

I found that kind of got in the way of the reading experience.  I'd have to finish reading near the journal so I could write it down.  Or, if I was sidetracked for a while then got back to reading, where'd I put that journal?

And then what I would do is not read the last paragraph or last line of a book so, technically, I didn't finish it and didn't have to bother writing it down in the journal yet.

And then, eventually, I just finished reading the book without worrying about keeping track of when I finished reading it.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by TimothyEllis on August 20, 2025, 12:23:03 AM »
Observation from a couple of the articles linked above.

They talk about reading percentages going down. But they don't correlate them with populations going up. As the population increases, the reading population as a number goes up, but the percentage could be still be going down. So the number of readers could be increasing, but the percentage doesn't show that.

They're talking about people reporting how many books they read in a year. I wouldn't have a clue how many books I read in the last year. I don't store that sort of information, and I sure as hell don't remember it.

The vast majority of those answers are most likely guesses. And probably wildly wrong. Then they're released as stats that get misinterpreted.

They're also ignoring the percentage of whale readers there are, and how they totally change the dynamic.

For every person who doesn't read a book in a year, there's someone who reads 20. Or reads 300.

As much as they try to gather stats, they're all subject to human memory, which is inherently unreliable.

The only reliable stat is gross income from sales and things like KU and the online reading sites. But we don't have more than half of that data.

So all those articles do is bang on about information that is hardly credible.

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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by Bill Hiatt on August 20, 2025, 12:06:54 AM »
We've ended up with an interesting discussion that seems to be flowing in several different directions at once.

PJ's point on diversification is certainly worth considering. It doesn't hurt to have multiple revenue streams, at the very least. We do need to be conscious of the fact that there are only 24 hours in a day, though. A writer can only do so many things, particularly if they involve separate workflows. At the risk of stating the obvious, books and YouTube videos are very different things, requiring different kinds of content and different skill sets.

As far as the audience changes are concerned, it's true that there are many more competing activities than there used to be. But even some of the articles PJ linked provide caveats, for example, the reference to the fact that people have been complaining about the decline of reading for generations (the example goes back to 1907, but I think we can find earlier ones). Also, there seems to be a disconnect between sales figures (which, if we estimate some increase from unincluded self published texts, are either stable or rising) and surveys that show people reading less. One of the linked articles suggests that buying a book doesn't mean the book gets read. But if the disconnect is caused by that, and we want to take a ruthlessly businesslike attitude toward the issue, we make the same amount of money on sales whether the books actually get read or not. That's not my preferred outcome, nor probably anyone else's. But from a strictly business standpoint, sales are what matter.

There is one other point I'd like to touch on briefly. Some of the linked articles reference students no longer being required to read full books. But as another source points out,
Quote
There is not a lot of information on how many books American students are required to read in school. But in general, students are reading less. Federal data from last year shows 14 percent of young people said they read for fun every day. In 2012, that percentage was 27 percent.
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/do-students-in-american-schools-read-long-books-anymore-/7789204.html
Notice the weird disconnect between the statement about reading in schools, which is then joined with survey data about reading for fun--two very different things. Always be on the lookout for these kinds of odd conflations. They're common.

Also, there is a tendency to blame schools for whatever is happening. I don't doubt that incoming college students said they'd never been asked to read a whole book before, but I question how often that's actually true. I just checked with my old high school, sort of a typical, middle-class institution, and every English class requires at least five books per year. (At the school where I taught, the number is higher.) Checks of several other schools didn't turn up a single one where the reading of books wasn't required.

There has been some tendency to try to introduce more contemporary titles that correspond to students' actual interest. And there seems to have been some slowdown in reading during the pandemic. But I'm having a hard time finding evidence for the kind of sweeping degradation implied by some of the linked articles.

On the issue of whether or not readers will accept AI, a quick search turns up no hard data, just a lot of people speculating. Some writers like AI, and some don't. I see no reason to assume that most readers will accept it unless a writer has worked on the books enough to make them at least sound human. But I wonder why it is that the AI companies come down so hard against labeling if they don't think it will make any difference to people.

Will AI just keep getting better? Maybe. But there are a number of barriers. And remember the recent incident with Grok, when Musk was trying to make it less "woke," and ending up having it call itself MechaHitler and recommend the immediate opening of concentration camps. To be fair, that didn't last too long, but it illustrates that recrafting Ai is not always the easiest thing in the world to do. 
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by TimothyEllis on August 19, 2025, 11:00:28 PM »

This is like arguing about cliffhangers. Writers don't like them. Readers do.

And yet, the only cliffhangers I've ended on had very definite reader declines for the next book.

The only time they don't matter is after the series is complete, and people have the next book already there to read immediately, and know the series was completed.

But while a series is in progress, cliffhangers can drop the number of pre-orders for the next book significantly, and severely drop the number of people who complete the series as it's being written. Once you lose those people, most of the time, you never get them back.

There is always a drop off with each new book, but books that end in cliffhangers have much larger drop offs after them.

So again, a generalization that isn't any part of my experience.

Readers DO care.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by TimothyEllis on August 19, 2025, 10:54:28 PM »
The average reader - not writers - is fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction.

Total BS!  :rant :evil2: :HB

Before I was a writer, I was a reader.

I was a reader for 50 years before I started writing.

And in all that time, I was very picky about what I read. I used to visit the book shops every week, sorted through what was new, and I went home with a new book maybe once a month. Sometimes longer.

When I discovered Kindle, I found a lot more books to read, but was still very picky about which ones I got far into in the samples. And getting as far as a sample was even pickier.

As a writer, my selection of what to read hasn't really changed.

So take your 'readers are fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction' bull f*****g sh** somewhere else, because you do NOT NOT NOT speak for me, now, before, or ever.

And before you say I'm not average, damn right I was.

And frankly, the average reader would be insulted by that comment. Like I am.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by PJ Post on August 19, 2025, 10:34:28 PM »
The point of bespoke generated novels is profit. The average reader - not writers - is fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction. And it's only getting better.

Rumor has it that the music streaming services are doing this as we speak, presumably to avoid paying Creatives at all. Rumor also has it that Netflix is creating movies and shows designed to be watched in the background, known as second screen or ambient tv.

This is like arguing about cliffhangers. Writers don't like them. Readers do. Writers don't like AI replacing them - readers don't care.

___

https://www.arts.gov/stories/blog/2024/federal-data-reading-pleasure-all-signs-show-slump

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/11/the-elite-college-students-who-cant-read-books/679945/

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/reading-crisis-perspective

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/whats-happening-to-reading

___

Society changes. Horses to the left and all of the outdated infrastructure necessary to support them, cars on the right and all of the emerging infrastructure to support them. And by infrastructure, I mean: jobs, businesses, processes, factories, products, logistics, technology - and the buying public.



It would be silly to assume that writing and publishing are immune from such changes.

___

If I'm right, my recommendations might save your career. If I'm wrong, my suggestions will make you way more successful.

___

For some people, the joy of reading is discovery, for many it's familiar escapism, be it Romance or Men's Adventure. And when it comes to business, we must be mindful not to project our own preferences onto the market. See cliffhanger comments above.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by Post-Doctorate D on August 19, 2025, 05:36:16 AM »
When I asked ChatGPT to write a story using my voice, it came up with a rather boring tale of witches and college. It was about 50% on target with my writing style--which is pretty darn impressive, tbh. BUT it wasn't me and the tale came across dull and uninspiring (I hope my stuff isn't dull and uninspiring to readers  Grin). In fact, some of it felt more like a comedian aping me than someone given an honest attempt at writing in my style.

If you want to have some fun with your writing, you can do what I did a number of years ago, which I had long forgotten.

The other day, I stumbled upon a chapter from one of my books with the file name indicating it was a translation.  I had had a couple of my short stories translated into other languages, but, so far, none of my novels.  So I was curious what this translation was.

I opened the file and then I remembered.  Many years ago, I had taken a chapter from that novel and copied it into an online translator.  I had it translated from English into German or something.  From there, I had it translated into another language.  Then, from that language, into another.  And, finally, back into English again.

Do that and you may get stuff more amusing than AI.  Also makes you wonder how stories actually read when translated into other languages to readers of that language.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by Post-Doctorate D on August 19, 2025, 05:31:31 AM »
Also, part of the joy of reading is discovery. You appreciate some neat thing a writer has done. You get caught by surprise by an unexpected twist. How is that possible if you're laying out in advance what you want with any specificity at all?

Star Trek: The Next Generation kind of touched on that.  There was an episode where Data played Sherlock Holmes on the Holodeck and there was no challenge because he had read and knew all the Sherlock Holmes stories, so he wasn't so much solving a mystery as remembering it and acting it out.  And that's when they screwed up and asked the computer to generate a villain capable of defeating Data (rather than Sherlock Holmes) and that's when the computer came up with a Professor Moriarty that became self-aware.  But that's not the point.  The point was that the others, especially Doctor Polaski, who participated in the holonovel with Data kind of got bored because they weren't really participating and being part of the mystery and were instead basically just re-enacting the story, which would be fine if you that's what your goal was--after all, they did perform stage plays and such--but if you want to get wrapped up in the mystery and actually have to solve it, if you're playing with someone who solves it by remembering the story, there's no fun in that.

I don't see where custom AI generated novels would be much different from that.
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Bot Discussion Public / Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Last post by alhawke on August 19, 2025, 05:29:30 AM »
I don't think we're #5. My newest theory is that science and math should be pushed up there. It's science and math that's gonna be overrun by AI and computers, not artwork. Fiction is a form of artwork. Maybe nonfiction is threatened, but even nonfiction can be put together in artful ways.

I think everyone's going batty over writing because of ChatGPT inroads in creating written composition. But, don't know about you, but I find AI writing by ChatGPT formulaic and boring.

I spent an hour last night playing around with ChatGPT. I was curious what AI thought of me as a writer as I've wanted to improve myself--you guys can try this to. Ask ChatGPT to write in your writing style. I actually learned stuff. I already knew I write in short phrases, to the point with less flowery descriptions. It works great for action but not so great for calmer scenes. ChatGPT thinks this style goes well with thrillers and suspense. Well, my witch stuff supernatural suspense.

But I also found loads of errors in ChatGPT's sources. It resourced books not written by me mixed with actual books I've written.

When I asked ChatGPT to write a story using my voice, it came up with a rather boring tale of witches and college. It was about 50% on target with my writing style--which is pretty darn impressive, tbh. BUT it wasn't me and the tale came across dull and uninspiring (I hope my stuff isn't dull and uninspiring to readers  Grin). In fact, some of it felt more like a comedian aping me than someone given an honest attempt at writing in my style.

Fiction writing is art. We're not #5, imo. I think math and science is gonna be up there. Artists and performers have a future. There's some uplifting ways for you all to think about all this.
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