Recent Posts

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I'm NOT proposing a narrative 🙄

I didn't mean "narrative" in a negative way. Your arguments seem to lean a certain direction, which I view as food for thought. Though my conclusions may vary, I do appreciate your posts. You back yourself up.

It's going to be very interesting to watch Sweden.
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Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.

I don't think that fits into the narrative Luke's proposing. Fortunately, we'll never know how many Covid-19 fatalities there would have been had we never reacted with shutdowns, etc., though those initial statistics and graphs were suggestive.

The various narratives unfolding:

1.  We've overreacted to the virus's threat and we are ruining our economy.

2.  We've underreacted to the threat, which will ruin our economy.

3.  Run for your life!

4.  This is where I land. We were slow to respond to the threat, we've taken corrective measures to
     hopefully minimize fatalities and suffering, and the economy will ultimately survive.

I'm NOT proposing a narrative 🙄 I'm citing data to assuage concerns and because most people consume media and don't spend time checking CDC and similar original sources. Yes, much of that data is at odds with the narrative being spun by the media and abetted by politicians and I'm glad that is the case as their narrative is apocalyptic gloom and doom, but I'm not actively championing a counter-narrative as much as hard data.

I've linked a video from Dr Birx with the coronavirus task force discussing the profound disparity between the models and the reality on the ground. In video she has stated that we've not seen an infection rate greater than 1 in 1000 anywhere. That is, as she said, only reconcilable with the models and assumptions on transmissibility if either the vast majority of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic (if true and even half of cases are asymptomatic and not represented then the CFR may be below that of the flu), or if our assumption on the R0 (infection rate) of the virus is grossly overstated.

We'll never know precisely what, if any, effect the social distancing and related policies have had; however, we can watch an example unfold that has done nothing more than rely on civic responsibility to mind one's own risk and be conscientious of others without shutting anything down in the example of Sweden. To date they have 180 deaths in a population of just over 10 million, a death rate of 0.0018%.
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Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.

I don't think that fits into the narrative Luke's proposing. Fortunately, we'll never know how many Covid-19 fatalities there would have been had we never reacted with shutdowns, etc., though those initial statistics and graphs were suggestive.

The various narratives unfolding:

1.  We've overreacted to the virus's threat and we are ruining our economy.

2.  We've underreacted to the threat, which will ruin our economy.

3.  Run for your life!

4.  This is where I land. We were slow to respond to the threat, we've taken corrective measures to
     hopefully minimize fatalities and suffering, and the economy will ultimately survive.

14
Just a coronavirus update that COVID19 has to kill another 535,855 people to equal the 2009 H1N1 deaths that the media largely ignored & nothing shutdown during.
Running tally:
H1N1 2009: 575,400 dead
Covid19 2020: 39,545 dead
Posted for perspective. Obviously we all hope that doesn't happen. If it doesn't there needs to be a heckuva lot of mea culpas, eating crow, and paying out lawsuits by the various government agencies and representatives.

Shamu is spinning in his watery grave btw: SeaWorld, which was forced to close all 12 of its locations due to shutdown policies, has announced they've had to fire 90% of their employees. 🐳🐋🐬☹️
Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.
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You need to do that as a Facebook style graphic.
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Just a coronavirus update that COVID19 has to kill another 535,855 people to equal the 2009 H1N1 deaths that the media largely ignored & nothing shutdown during.
Running tally:
H1N1 2009: 575,400 dead
Covid19 2020: 39,545 dead
Posted for perspective. Obviously we all hope that doesn't happen. If it doesn't there needs to be a heckuva lot of mea culpas, eating crow, and paying out lawsuits by the various government agencies and representatives.

Shamu is spinning in his watery grave btw: SeaWorld, which was forced to close all 12 of its locations due to shutdown policies, has announced they've had to fire 90% of their employees. 🐳🐋🐬☹️
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EIP: 3.P.7 @ pre-order
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Art, Covers & Designs [Public] / Premade book covers & original artwork
« Last post by engellmann on March 31, 2020, 09:10:16 PM »
Bumping this in case anyone needs a premade book cover!
19

Being an optimist, I'd love to believe your assessment of the situation. Two things keep me from immediately leaping on board:

First, why is it that so many medical professionals don't seem to agree with Dr. Birx? Dr. Fauci was just saying in the last couple of days that the worst case scenario for the US (assuming no preventive measures) was 100,000 deaths. I know models can be inaccurate, but it's interesting that we aren't seeing agreement on what the inaccuracies are. It's also important to note that we have many years of data on flu deaths and infection patterns. We have data on Covid-19 in humans for only a short period of time. So maybe the more pessimistic models were inaccurate, but who's to say the adjusted models will pan out? Maybe the 20,000 estimated deaths in the UK is an underestimate. The truth is that we don't know yet.

Second, what current data we do have on Covid-19 is doubtless influenced by measures taken to mitigate the infection rate. How do we know what would have happened if, for example, the US and the individual states had been doing a lot less? The fact that the US has a higher infection rate than China (which took much more drastic measures much earlier) is suggestive in this regard. The variations in local infection rates also suggest there may be variables we haven't isolated yet. For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

We do know one thing. When cases continue to escalate, the infection is not yet contained. NY predictions suggest the problem will get worse for the next 21 days before it peaks. By that time, California may be experiencing rates comparable to what NY has now. We just don't know yet.

We all want the current shutdown to be relaxed or eliminated as soon as possible. But there's still a lot we don't know--or at least, that's how it seems to me.

Just taking a moment to say thank you to Bill - I always appreciate your posts, and the way you always try to see both sides and find a way through. Very much needed in the current extraordinary times!

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So I logged into Coles to check something, and found I could actually get a delivery slot. So big order coming now. No idea how much I will get though.

But some sanity returning to my life now. Between both supermarket chains, I should be able to get most of what I need.

(Waiting for the other shoe to drop.)
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