Author Topic: Author's Income Survey  (Read 11886 times)

Shoe

Author's Income Survey
« on: November 18, 2019, 04:16:55 AM »
I posted this link in the "Book A Month" thread but feel it might interest more than the few following that discussion. There's lots of interesting data on earnings for both sides of the industry (self versus traditional):

https://www.authorsguild.org/industry-advocacy/six-takeaways-from-the-authors-guild-2018-authors-income-survey/
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PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2019, 04:37:13 AM »
I'm guessing we'd find similar results across all Creative industries: music, illustration/art, design, etc.
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2019, 05:17:01 AM »
These results aren't surprising. :icon_cry:

A few authors are doing well, and self-publishers in general are doing better, but still lag behind trads. However, even trads aren't able to make a living solely on writing in most cases.

People with sources of income other than writing will continue to write. Others may be increasingly driven out of publishing, or at least reduced to part-time.

None of this is really all that new, though some of the causes are. How many people made a living at writing in the past? Not that many. Some authors prior to the 20th century had to supplement their income with journalism jobs (which are now in short supply.)

I don't want to see literary fiction disappear, either, but i'll take mild exception to the concept that it is the only literary fiction books that "that teach, inspire, and make us think and empathize."


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Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #3 on: November 18, 2019, 06:08:14 AM »

How many people made a living at writing in the past? Not that many. Some authors prior to the 20th century had to supplement their income with journalism jobs (which are now in short supply.)

I believe the gist of the report was most non-bestselling authors, even well-respected mid-listers, have always depended on secondary sources of income, so nothing new there. Those with literary steam often find safety-nets in academia or journalism and thus carry on with their novel writing in a symbiotic way.

The income data in the report suggests if your indie earnings are $10,000 a year from your books, you're actually doing very well (compared to other writers, even traditionally vetted mid-listers where, if I read correctly, $3000 per year is the norm).

Quote
I don't want to see literary fiction disappear, either, but I'll take mild exception to the concept that it is the only literary fiction books that "that teach, inspire, and make us think and empathize."

I'm no longer sure where to draw the line between current "literary" fiction and all the rest (perhaps it's the books that earn canonical status, the books people will study in fifty years, that attain true literary status).

Novels from McEwan, Barnes, Amis, Banville, Frayn (a few of my favorite novelists) are all covered in the literary zines but, rather than viewing their books as literary, I view them as non-escapist reading for thinking adults. (Some might say all fiction is escapist but I would disagree.) There will always be a strong audience for their type of books and I don't see them as disappearing soon.



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Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #4 on: November 18, 2019, 06:12:37 AM »
I'd like to think you were right about that. That's one genre, however, that still depends pretty heavily on trad publishers, though its fate may be more tied to them than that of other genres.


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JRTomlin

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #5 on: November 18, 2019, 09:14:09 AM »
🤔  :icon_think: I don't think I care to comment except that what they describe is not a publishing industry that I recognise. 
 
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PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #6 on: November 18, 2019, 09:59:05 AM »
As Creatives, we provide content, not books. Books are packaging, just like CD’s used to be. And now, new cars don't even come with CD players. The world has moved on from the old ways of publishing too, including all of the self-publishing platforms we've come to know. Creatives are becoming pseudo-celebrities (medium fish in small ponds), a status they're leveraging in what has become a gig economy - many baskets of visibility - many baskets of revenue.

Sure, the top percentile of any group is doing fine, but they're not the ones driving the boat anymore, it's the next generation that's reinventing entertainment and how we access it. As I've said before, get all you can out of the current system, for as long as you can, but it's way past time to rethink our content (product) and how our fans want to enjoy it. New tech is coming. For productivity, tablets are merging into laptops, but for entertainment, they're being replaced by folding phone displays.

This report is documenting the last days of the old publishing world, and doesn't really affect where things are going to go from here, just like similar reports a few years back didn't mention how streaming would change the music business.
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2019, 11:42:54 AM »
🤔  :icon_think: I don't think I care to comment except that what they describe is not a publishing industry that I recognise.

I would be genuinely interested to learn how the industry you recognize varies from the survey.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2019, 11:43:11 AM »
As Creatives, we provide content, not books.

In the same way that video clips and movies are content, but only a book still offers freedom from tech. Even millennials prefer to read printed books.

Quote
This report is documenting the last days of the old publishing world, and doesn't really affect where things are going to go from here, just like similar reports a few years back didn't mention how streaming would change the music business.

The report offered a state of the industry review as of August 2018, or whenever the survey results were compiled. For sure, traditional publishing has endured enormous changes over the past twenty years, but it's adapting. I don't think folding phones or any other new tech on the horizon (even AI) will pose any further severe threats.

If you're a traditional or self-published author and earn in the upper percentiles (which doesn't necessarily mean a lot of money), chances are you'll continue to do so--or possibly do even better. I've read elsewhere that in ten years we'll all be hybrid authors, exceptions being for the very best of best-selling authors. (I'm not sure why being a hybrid author would make much difference unless I'd started out in traditional publishing. There are quite a few here who have taken that route, maybe they will comment).
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TimothyEllis

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2019, 09:30:14 PM »
I've read elsewhere that in ten years we'll all be hybrid authors, exceptions being for the very best of best-selling authors.

Why?

And what will the very best be doing?
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Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #10 on: November 18, 2019, 11:22:28 PM »
Hybrid as in we publish our own ebooks and publishers pick and choose paperback rights on a royalty-only basis? That would work for me, although it would have to be with a print run and distribution, not POD (which I'm doing myself anyway.)



 
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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #11 on: November 18, 2019, 11:52:41 PM »
Hybrid as in we publish our own ebooks and publishers pick and choose paperback rights on a royalty-only basis? That would work for me, although it would have to be with a print run and distribution, not POD (which I'm doing myself anyway.)

That would work for me.
Genres: Space Opera/Fantasy/Cyberpunk, with elements of LitRPG and GameLit, with a touch of the Supernatural. Also Spiritual and Games.



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notthatamanda

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2019, 12:12:56 AM »
Not that anybody's asked me, but why would you guys want to let someone else do the paperbacks?  Do you think they'd be better at promotion into stores than you can do on your own?  Lower costs for print runs?  Just curious.

I'd be more than happy to hybrid out any foreign language translations, print and ebooks, and audio, as long as I'm day dreaming here.
 

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2019, 12:41:53 AM »
Not that anybody's asked me, but why would you guys want to let someone else do the paperbacks?  Do you think they'd be better at promotion into stores than you can do on your own?  Lower costs for print runs?  Just curious.

The covers are something I cant get a grip on how to do.

I've been waiting on D2D to get their beta cover converter up, but nada.

So if a pub came along wanting to do them, I'd be happy.
Genres: Space Opera/Fantasy/Cyberpunk, with elements of LitRPG and GameLit, with a touch of the Supernatural. Also Spiritual and Games.



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notthatamanda

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2019, 01:00:28 AM »
Just FYI - my cover artist charges I think $75 to make an Ingram ready cover from an existing ebook cover.  If you are interested, I can PM you her info.  I know you have a lot of books though, so it adds up.
 

Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2019, 01:13:55 AM »
The main thing with wrap-around covers is to start with the right template, which is based on the trim size and precise page count.


Re paperbacks/hardcovers, I'm talking one of the Big 5 (4?) who could release an entire series into bookstores across a given country. That's not something I'm ever going to achieve on my own, and neither is any Indie author.

I don't mean leasing the rights to a small press who can publish the paperbacks and make them available, because I do that myself now.

 
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Hopscotch

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2019, 01:16:40 AM »
The survey seems to me pretty slapdash and shows us nothing we don't already know - most writers of all kinds earn about the same money relative to their local economies that writers have earned since the year zero.  If you're not a stunning bestseller (eg, Oprah mentioned you) then you survive on other income - job, pension, patron, teaching, bank robbery.  Pretty much as do most actors, painters, musicians, standup comedians.  We're all in the same club.  And there is no hope for better except thru hard work preparing for that lucky break that may never (and usually doesn't) come.  A more important question for even an income survey to ask is - What does a writer expect his/her books to achieve?
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2019, 01:19:19 AM »
Not that anybody's asked me, but why would you guys want to let someone else do the paperbacks?  Do you think they'd be better at promotion into stores than you can do on your own?  Lower costs for print runs?  Just curious.

I'd be more than happy to hybrid out any foreign language translations, print and ebooks, and audio, as long as I'm day dreaming here.
For me it would be bookstore placement. While it's not impossible to get that as an indie, it would be easier with a major publisher. (Small presses wouldn't make that much of a difference.


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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #18 on: November 19, 2019, 01:35:25 AM »
As Creatives, we provide content, not books. Books are packaging, just like CD’s used to be. And now, new cars don't even come with CD players. The world has moved on from the old ways of publishing too, including all of the self-publishing platforms we've come to know. Creatives are becoming pseudo-celebrities (medium fish in small ponds), a status they're leveraging in what has become a gig economy - many baskets of visibility - many baskets of revenue.

Sure, the top percentile of any group is doing fine, but they're not the ones driving the boat anymore, it's the next generation that's reinventing entertainment and how we access it. As I've said before, get all you can out of the current system, for as long as you can, but it's way past time to rethink our content (product) and how our fans want to enjoy it. New tech is coming. For productivity, tablets are merging into laptops, but for entertainment, they're being replaced by folding phone displays.

This report is documenting the last days of the old publishing world, and doesn't really affect where things are going to go from here, just like similar reports a few years back didn't mention how streaming would change the music business.
While I agree with your distinction between content and packaging, I don't see the folding phone as the future of content.

Phones are great for convenience, like for checking email on the go, but I know literally zero people whose phone is their preferred method of watching movies. Maybe if someone is trapped in a boring situation with nothing on their phone except a movie--but how often is that going to happen?  (And who's buying all those big-screen TVs that take up a huge chunk of the local Best Buy? And how well is a phone going to do with 4K video? You see where I'm going.)

Music is maybe a better fit for digital devices, but even there, vinyl records are still being manufacturing, and sales are actually increasing. Vinyl! Its death was predicted long ago, yet now it's slowly resurrecting.

Of course, books are the most relevant to us, but as Shoe points out, many people still prefer paper books. The more my friends love reading, in fact, the more likely they are to prefer paper. I prefer ebooks now only because I'm running out of space, so I only go with paper if that's the only format available.

I'm not saying these patterns will never change, but I'm not sure when or to what. Some tech prophecies have come true, but others have fallen flat. And there is value in owning a copy rather than having it somewhere in the cloud. My heirs, some of whom are readers, can inherit my paper books. But they can't inherit my Amazon account, which means unless they keep my Kindle offline forever, they lose access to all the ebooks I own. There have all been cases of people losing access to digital content when companies went out of business. If you buy a paper book, that purchase is unaffected by the book store going out of business. (A good thing, given how many I bought from Borders!) The same isn't always true for digital content. Downloaded is safer than streaming in that regard, but not completely safe.


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Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #19 on: November 19, 2019, 01:50:59 AM »
At least Amazon lets you download copies of any ebook you purchase. They can be copied onto your kindle, and my Kindle 2 hasn't seen the internet since I bought it.

 

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2019, 02:03:36 AM »
Just FYI - my cover artist charges I think $75 to make an Ingram ready cover from an existing ebook cover.  If you are interested, I can PM you her info.  I know you have a lot of books though, so it adds up.

I'm not sure I'm ready for that sort of expense, or the time to do it at the moment.

I have been thinking of doing a series specific back and spine for each series though. Which would mean I could use the D2D templates. But the whole thing daunts me too much.

I already have audiobooks with a publisher, so paperbacks in stores would do me much better. (Not holding my breath though.)
Genres: Space Opera/Fantasy/Cyberpunk, with elements of LitRPG and GameLit, with a touch of the Supernatural. Also Spiritual and Games.



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Vijaya

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #21 on: November 19, 2019, 02:05:09 AM »
Thanks Shoe. Not surprising that most midlist writers are teaching, editing, and visiting schools to make ends meet along with their writing. Only a few writers make their living solely on the writing. So it's great to know so many of you are making it.

No matter how the technology changes, the physical book is here to stay. I find it amazing that we can still read manuscripts from long ago...I don't mean reproductions but the editions in museums. Writing carved on stone, skin, cloth, paper. What a medium!


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Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #22 on: November 19, 2019, 03:46:49 AM »
I've read elsewhere that in ten years we'll all be hybrid authors, exceptions being for the very best of best-selling authors.

Why?

And what will the very best be doing?

I believe I read the bit about us all becoming hybrid authors over a year ago on Maureen Crisp's blog, not that I can find it today.

I suspect bestselling authors will continue to write their own ticket, whatever form it may be. I'm sure some would sneer at self-publishing while others would see the $ benefit.

There's an article on hybrid authors on Written Word Media (https://www.writtenwordmedia.com/hybrid-author/). An author familiar to us here is quoted in favor of hybrid publishing.

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notthatamanda

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #23 on: November 19, 2019, 04:03:59 AM »
I think it just depends on who the publisher is and what they are offering. It would be very easy to get excited about a publisher being interested in me, but I'd have to tell the ego to sit in the corner while the business end of the brain is making the decision, alone.
 
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #24 on: November 19, 2019, 04:13:56 AM »
I've read elsewhere that in ten years we'll all be hybrid authors, exceptions being for the very best of best-selling authors.

Why?

And what will the very best be doing?

I believe I read the bit about us all becoming hybrid authors over a year ago on Maureen Crisp's blog, not that I can find it today.

I suspect bestselling authors will continue to write their own ticket, whatever form it may be. I'm sure some would sneer at self-publishing while others would see the $ benefit.

There's an article on hybrid authors on Written Word Media (https://www.writtenwordmedia.com/hybrid-author/). An author familiar to us here is quoted in favor of hybrid publishing.
In a totally free situation, I can imagine trad authors supplementing their income with some indie projects, particularly things their publishers turned down. But in the current climate (license not just the book but the entire universe in which it exists, non-compete clauses) a lot of trad-pubbed authors are being blocked from that option.

For different reasons, indies are blocked from moving the other direction. If we could all have been accepted by the trads, I imagine self-publishing would never have developed into much. It's precisely because people couldn't or didn't want to wait years for a nod that self-publishing was attractive. With so many people self-publishing and so few potential spaces in trad, how do the majority of us become hybrids? I don't see it. (Unless we use hybrid in a very loose sense. Technically, I'm a hybrid in that I've had short stories published by someone other than me. But in all those cases, it was by a micro-publisher run by another indie author. If we count those instances, it would make more sense.)
« Last Edit: November 19, 2019, 04:26:46 AM by Bill Hiatt »


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Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #25 on: November 19, 2019, 04:26:08 AM »
I think it just depends on who the publisher is and what they are offering. It would be very easy to get excited about a publisher being interested in me, but I'd have to tell the ego to sit in the corner while the business end of the brain is making the decision, alone.
The same with me, except that my ego wouldn't stay in the corner unless it was chained down.

I recently found a small press that looked attractive to me (no signs of overly predatory contract, professional website, books that look good and seem to do reasonably well). They had a contact us area separate from the submission area, so I asked a quick question about whether they were open to a particular subgenre. After several days, no response. I'm sure they have a small staff, but they probably shouldn't put up a contact email if they can't handle contacts that way. It made me imagine how long it might take them to respond to a manuscript, so I quietly crossed them off my list.


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LilyBLily

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #26 on: November 19, 2019, 04:35:47 AM »
I don't expect a traditional publisher to offer me anything, ever.

At this stage in my life, considering the kinds of stories I write, the only realistic benefit of engaging with a trad pub is getting more eyeballs on my books--but by the time the trad pub was through with what I write, it wouldn't be my voice anymore and I'd want to disavow it.

If you aspire to have your stories in the movies and in the celebrity book clubs and become a worldwide bestseller, trad pub is the statistically better option than indie because the media outlets are all in bed with each other. If seeing your book in a physical bookstore means something to you, go for it. I used to work in bookstores and libraries, but somehow, along about the time I switched from editing with a pencil to using Track Changes, I lost my interest in having my books appear in those venues. There's nobody I want to impress with having my book in a physical bookstore--starting with me. I don't look for or buy books in physical bookstores anymore, and I use libraries very seldom these days.

I don't see myself as any kind of hybrid in the future. At some point, either Amazon buys Hachette, or Hachette buys Amazon, or Bertelsmann buys Rakuten, or.... Those are the hybrids of the future. Just as Amazon has swallowed up numerous cute little businesses as adjuncts to its own, one of these big fish will swallow another, and suddenly, all the indies will be publishing under the umbrella of a legitimate legacy publishing company. We won't ever get the editorial or contractual pat on the back, we'll just be in their system now. Will life be harder or easier for us? Who knows?   

 
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Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #27 on: November 19, 2019, 04:37:17 AM »
how do the majority of us become hybrids?

I know Rosalind James was solicited by Amazon's Montlake imprint (or whatever it's called), and she now goes both ways (unless she's changed her ways). Whether that presents a true hybrid situation I'm not sure (does Montlake distribute beyond Amazon?).

I doubt the hybrid path is one for most indies, suspecting a vetting process involves a hard look at the existing sales and staying power of the author's shelf. I don't hear a lot about traditional publishers hooking up with indies, but we know it sure happens (wasn't this the case with Andy Weir?). So, my guess is there are only two ways to becoming a hybrid author--you solicit a publisher, or the publisher solicits you.

I'm happy to continue self-publishing, but would not be adverse to being solicited to write a manuscript for a trad publisher, partly for security reasons, but also due to vanity.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

notthatamanda

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #28 on: November 19, 2019, 04:47:56 AM »
Well Bill, happy to help with virtual chains if you need them.

I think there will be more hybrid stuff in the other direction, eg, trad authors doing stuff with other platforms, eg, Veronica Roth's "Ark" with Amazon originals, even though she's got another full length book coming out with Houghton Mifflin Harcourt next year.
 

JRTomlin

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #29 on: November 19, 2019, 04:56:21 AM »
🤔  :icon_think: I don't think I care to comment except that what they describe is not a publishing industry that I recognise.

I would be genuinely interested to learn how the industry you recognize varies from the survey.
As a midlist indie author who makes a living at it, has for years, and knows others in the same category, I find the 'no one makes a living writing' overblown.  Of course, that doesn't change the fact that most writers don't make a living at writing. The majority of writers have never made a living at it, but that midlisters can't make a living is simply not true.
 
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Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #30 on: November 19, 2019, 06:10:23 AM »
I find the 'no one makes a living writing' overblown.

I don't think anyone here nor on the survey said that. Plenty make a living, as the survey confirmed.

Mid-listers in traditional publishing typically aren't making a lot of money.

What's a mid-listing indie? I sense I'm one based on rankings and sales, and at current royalties and KENP rates, I'm making a decent living. If the royalty dropped to 30% and KENP to $0.20, I would be okay, but only because I have other sources of income. Still, I'd probably look to widening my distribution. Maybe a move to hybrid publishing would then make sense.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

JRTomlin

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #31 on: November 19, 2019, 06:20:12 AM »
Actually that has been said or at least implied repeatedly, but I said I don't want to get into how I know so believe what you like.
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #32 on: November 19, 2019, 06:38:26 AM »
Actually that has been said or at least implied repeatedly,

I don't think it has on this thread. In other threads, forums, sure...

Quote
but I said I don't want to get into how I know so believe what you like.

Which makes me wonder why you bothered with your first post on this thread. We're just talkin' here, sharing ideas and insights, having a discussion. To drop in to say "I disagree with the survey" is fine, I suppose, but understanding why you disagree would broaden the scope of the conversation to everyone's benefit. To discredit the survey outright could steer people away who would have otherwise increased their knowledge of the industry (and formed their own opinions).
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #33 on: November 23, 2019, 02:36:35 AM »
I'd love to see an in depth survey for all of the Creative fields, because they're increasingly the same, business-wise; consumer behavior and strategies cross-over.

The point of the folding phone is that it's going to make tablets obsolete, including dedicated readers. Tech will continue to disrupt pretty much everything, not necessarily what we like, but definitely how we consume it.
 

Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #34 on: November 23, 2019, 02:49:44 AM »
I'd love to see an in depth survey for all of the Creative fields, because they're increasingly the same, business-wise; consumer behavior and strategies cross-over.

The point of the folding phone is that it's going to make tablets obsolete, including dedicated readers. Tech will continue to disrupt pretty much everything, not necessarily what we like, but definitely how we consume it.

I have a 10.1" tablet which I mostly use to read 1970s and 1980s british comics, and occasionally for non-fiction titles with images (how-to books and the like) I wish it was a 12" tablet, to be honest.  A folding phone will never replace this device for me, unless it folds down by a factor of 8.

I also have a kindle 2 with the eInk screen. No device with an LED or LCD screen will ever replace this for me either, including the tablet I already have.  4-5 years ago I ditched my gigantic collection of paperbacks because the kindle screen is like ... a sheet of paper. I spend up to 16 hours a day staring at a bank of three backlit screens. When I read, it's going to be on paper (or the equivalent.)

As for my phone itself, I buy a brand new device which is at least 5 years out of date, and keep it at least 5 years. I don't want a gigantic screen or four cameras or tons of apps, I just want a phone with gps/maps and texting.



 

PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #35 on: November 23, 2019, 03:13:21 AM »
I have a 10.1" tablet which I mostly use to read 1970s and 1980s british comics, and occasionally for non-fiction titles with images (how-to books and the like) I wish it was a 12" tablet, to be honest.  A folding phone will never replace this device for me, unless it folds down by a factor of 8.

I also have a kindle 2 with the eInk screen. No device with an LED or LCD screen will ever replace this for me either, including the tablet I already have.  4-5 years ago I ditched my gigantic collection of paperbacks because the kindle screen is like ... a sheet of paper. I spend up to 16 hours a day staring at a bank of three backlit screens. When I read, it's going to be on paper (or the equivalent.)

As for my phone itself, I buy a brand new device which is at least 5 years out of date, and keep it at least 5 years. I don't want a gigantic screen or four cameras or tons of apps, I just want a phone with gps/maps and texting.

While I appreciate what you're saying, it's important to know that you and me - WE - are not the market. All of those other people out there are way more flexible, which is why streaming is a thing and vinyl isn't.
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #36 on: November 23, 2019, 03:25:01 AM »
As someone alluded to earlier, novels are just "content". How it's delivered is irrelevant.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #37 on: November 23, 2019, 03:39:22 AM »
While I appreciate what you're saying, it's important to know that you and me - WE - are not the market. All of those other people out there are way more flexible, which is why streaming is a thing and vinyl isn't.

I agree with you in that sense.  But even now, I've seen reports that the latest and greatest phones are selling much slower than equivalent releases of a few years ago. (And the tablet market collapsed long before that.)

I just have the feeling that manufacturers are reaching for the next product which they hope we'll all want. Are 3D TV sets still a thing? 3D movies? I know VR games made a load of noise a year or two back, but I don't see too many new release VR games now. Obviously there's huge business in getting everyone to ditch perfectly good tech for the new shiny, but I don't know how many are buying into that game any more.

I guess the equivalent in the PC marketplace is the good old graphics card. Companies make 'hero' models like the GTX 2080ti (or the even faster card which I've forgotten the name of), but joe everyday (which is me), buys the superseded GTX 1660 for A$350 because it's fast enough to do everything and will last me at least 5 years.

 

Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #38 on: November 23, 2019, 03:44:01 AM »
By the way, I've been involved in tech of one sort of another since 1982. I worked as a computer salesman in the late 80's/early 90's and saw machines selling for $8k with 4mb of ram and an 80mb HD. I am definitely biased against spending money on new tech, because I've seen generation after generation of devices come through and I've been in the 'use it til it falls apart' camp from the start of this century.

(As you already guessed.)

But I do think tech companies should hire a few older folk who wear reading glasses when they're designing ultra-high rez screens with a 6" diagonal size.

 
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PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #39 on: November 23, 2019, 03:48:20 AM »
In response, I give you self-driving cars, delivery drones and avocado toast.   grint
 
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #40 on: November 23, 2019, 04:00:54 AM »
I have a 10.1" tablet which I mostly use to read 1970s and 1980s british comics, and occasionally for non-fiction titles with images (how-to books and the like) I wish it was a 12" tablet, to be honest.  A folding phone will never replace this device for me, unless it folds down by a factor of 8.

I also have a kindle 2 with the eInk screen. No device with an LED or LCD screen will ever replace this for me either, including the tablet I already have.  4-5 years ago I ditched my gigantic collection of paperbacks because the kindle screen is like ... a sheet of paper. I spend up to 16 hours a day staring at a bank of three backlit screens. When I read, it's going to be on paper (or the equivalent.)

As for my phone itself, I buy a brand new device which is at least 5 years out of date, and keep it at least 5 years. I don't want a gigantic screen or four cameras or tons of apps, I just want a phone with gps/maps and texting.

While I appreciate what you're saying, it's important to know that you and me - WE - are not the market. All of those other people out there are way more flexible, which is why streaming is a thing and vinyl isn't.
"All of those other people" is a pretty broad generalization. I don't want to belabor the points I made above, but everyone isn't moving in the same direction. And vinyl, as I said, is coming back, albeit on a small scale. It's increasingly popular for bands to produce limited edition vinyl for some of their releases. People are often nostalgic. This is the same phenomenon that leads to the proliferation of 1950s-style diners.

At its most general level, your point is sound--things will change. But the ways in which they will change may be different from what we think. There is tendency to assume that whatever the hot new technology is will become dominant, but that doesn't always happen.

The rise of the flip phone empire requires people to really, really love small screens. I don't see that happening. People do use phones and will use phones for convenience on the run. But given a choice between a decent-sized screen and a phone, who's going to watch a movie on a phone?

When laserdisk players were new, everyone thought they'd become dominant. Can you even get one now? Or remember back when OS2 was going to crush Windows?


Tickling the imagination one book at a time
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Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #41 on: November 23, 2019, 04:11:22 AM »
I worked as a computer salesman in the late 80's/early 90's and saw machines selling for $8k with 4mb of ram and an 80mb HD. I am definitely biased against spending money on new tech,


I bought my first computer in the early 80s (a TeleVideo using floppy disks that started with an MS-DOS prompt) for $3000. Later, an Apple Duo Dock (I think they called it) for $4000. Later on a Gateway for $3000, an iMac with a 27" screen for $3800 delivered (lasted two years), an Asus to replace it for $2000 (prices started coming down), and a Lenovo with Windows 10 (the horror!) to use as a back-up for $1100. After eleven years, the Asus started slipping. Two weeks ago I replaced it with an off-the-shelf HP for $369 at Staples. So far it works great and does everything I need it to do.

I've had an iPhone 6 Plus for three years. There are 30 icons on the screen (three scrolls) that I've never clicked. Generally, I hate scrolling through menus to control the volume or bass. Give me dedicated knobs!
« Last Edit: November 23, 2019, 04:13:46 AM by Shoe »
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 
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Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #42 on: November 23, 2019, 04:11:49 AM »
Now avocado toast I'll accept, as long as I can sprinkle a bit of chopped-up raw onion on top ;-)

Self-driving cars... I'm having an ongoing multi-year argument with a young friend of mine. She's 22 and hasn't bothered to get a driving license (neither have my daughters, both in their twenties.)   I keep telling her that self-driving cars will make driving licenses unnecessary by around 2025 (she has the date in her diary.)  She insists they won't, and in 2025 she's prepared to yell at me because she should have got her license... even though she doesn't want to.

Privately, I think self-driving cars will be just fine as soon as all the human-driven cars are off the road. To do that, watch insurance premiums rise to the price of a robot-built house (which will have three knobs on every door, and no power points because someone forgot to program that bit.)

And then, when we have self-driving cars, the new game will be for feral kids to walk into the middle of a road and just stand there waving at the furious passengers.

Delivery drones... sure. Except for the part where they get bigger and bigger, and there's millions of them, and they start failing (cheap-ass maintenance budget) and dropping from the sky into the middle of roads ... where all the self-driving cars will immediately come to a dead stop.


By the way, every one of my Hal Spacejock books starts could be subtitled "when technology goes wrong". Twenty years ago I had to spend days thinking up far-future mishaps and c*ck-ups. Now I just read the news.
 

Simon Haynes

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #43 on: November 23, 2019, 04:16:21 AM »
I worked as a computer salesman in the late 80's/early 90's and saw machines selling for $8k with 4mb of ram and an 80mb HD. I am definitely biased against spending money on new tech,


I bought my first computer in the early 80s (a TeleVideo using floppy disks that started with an MS-DOS prompt) for $3000. Later, an Apple Duo Dock (I think they called it) for $4000. Later on a Gateway for $3000, an iMac with a 27" screen for $3800 delivered (lasted two years), an Asus to replace it for $2000 (prices started coming down), and a Lenovo with Windows 10 (the horror!) to use as a back-up for $1100. After eleven years, the Asus started slipping. Two weeks ago I replaced it with an off-the-shelf HP for $369 at Staples. So far it works great and does everything I need it to do.

I've had an iPhone 6 Plus for three years. There are 30 icons on the screen (three scrolls) that's I've never clicked. Generally, I hate scrolling through menus to control the volume or bass. Give me dedicated knobs!


My dad was going to get my mum a fancy necklace for xmas. (They're in their late 70s).  She phoned me and suggested a new netbook instead, as her windows XP device has seen better days. So, I looked up a modern, fairly decent device, and then had my dad on the phone asking for the model number etc. When I told him it was $220 brand new he got me to repeat the price about five times.

I used to work with my parents, handling all the tech stuff for their business (100+ employees, 12 branches) and he was accustomed to $4000 for a laser printer, $4k for a basic laptop (mono screen) and second-hand PC-XTs for up to $1k each. We once paid $14k for a server and network cabling/cards. Ouch.


 

PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #44 on: November 23, 2019, 04:56:49 AM »
"All of those other people" is a pretty broad generalization. I don't want to belabor the points I made above, but everyone isn't moving in the same direction. And vinyl, as I said, is coming back, albeit on a small scale. It's increasingly popular for bands to produce limited edition vinyl for some of their releases. People are often nostalgic. This is the same phenomenon that leads to the proliferation of 1950s-style diners.

At its most general level, your point is sound--things will change. But the ways in which they will change may be different from what we think. There is tendency to assume that whatever the hot new technology is will become dominant, but that doesn't always happen.

The rise of the flip phone empire requires people to really, really love small screens. I don't see that happening. People do use phones and will use phones for convenience on the run. But given a choice between a decent-sized screen and a phone, who's going to watch a movie on a phone?

When laserdisk players were new, everyone thought they'd become dominant. Can you even get one now? Or remember back when OS2 was going to crush Windows?

All of those other people are the market at large. Sure, it's old people, but it's also the people who listen to Cardi B, think yoga pants are business casual and man-buns are, well…manly. I'm not really talking about hot new tech, just tech in general, and that it is going to be disruptive; we can only speculate as to how. But folding phones, for example, have tablet-sized displays, and the functionality of a pretty powerful laptop. That's a game changer for mobile entertainment.

You've mentioned watching movies on phones before. Personally, I don't see how anyone can watch a movie on anything less than a 65 inch HD display with, at minimum, a semi-audiophile sound system to go with it - but, not only is that just me, I'm way way way in the minority. Many people, much to my horror, listen to their television's factory speakers. Factory speakers! And they're perfectly okay with it!!! Talk about gauche. And a sound bar isn't all that much better in my book. I could go on and on about crap audio and the fall of western society, but I think you get my point.

While I'm clearly representative of a certain niche, I'm not representative of overall market demand.

As for the down-through-the-ages-power-per-dollar-per-headache-you've-got-to-be-sh*tting-me-what-do-you-mean-I-don't-have-enough-RAM-I-just bought-this-f*cking-thing computer discussion, I can't even.

 :HB
« Last Edit: November 23, 2019, 05:00:05 AM by PJ Post »
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #45 on: November 23, 2019, 05:45:43 AM »
I'm not representative of overall market demand.

It doesn't matter.

If the subject is the author's income being affected by the future of tech, we probably shouldn't worry. What do we care how consumers read our books, as long as they read them? Or listen to them on audio? We still cash in.

And the market for print isn't going anywhere, though it's size will vary. We can now reach readers via ebooks, print books, and audio, whether via direct sales or via subscription models (KU). As the tech morphs, and it will, it will probably improve our delivery options, not hinder them.

The biggest concern now and for the foreseeable future is the dominance of a single platform for marketing our books. I can't believe a true competitor hasn't stepped up. I tried to find the Apple ebook store using my PC. When I finally got to it (after landing on several sites trying to sell me Mac products) I got sort of a f*ck you welcome for having arrived on a non-Apple product. And why don't they have an iPad labeled "iPad Reader"? Seems nuts.  I'm ranting a bit. Sorry. They could have been a contender.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

Hopscotch

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #46 on: November 23, 2019, 06:18:23 AM »
If the subject is the author's income being affected by the future of tech, we probably shouldn't worry. What do we care how consumers read our books, as long as they read them? Or listen to them on audio? We still cash in.

There is an aspect of income vs or via new tech that probably should interest us all and that's how we tailor our writing for that tech.  Eg, b/c I know many people read ebooks on smartphones, I try to write shorter paragraphs and shorter dialog.  That can result in more paras and more conversation.  But (I think) it eases the reader's reading task.  Do you all find the need to do things like  that?
. .

Fiction & pizza recipes @ stevenhardesty.com + nonfiction @ forgottenwarstories.com
 

PJ Post

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #47 on: November 23, 2019, 06:34:05 AM »
Tech affects everything, because it affects lifestyles. There will always be tiny niche markets, but they'll be swept to the fringes, just like vinyl records or professional recording studios. As long as mega-platforms control both the access to markets, as well as the visibility within them, everything about our publishing future is at risk. For example, the development of CPC marketing allowed Amazon to create the pay to play system we were all predicting, which not only turned Indie marketing upside down, it hammered profitability. And, if I was taking a guess, I'd say it single-handedly ended a lot of Indie careers.

If the subject is the author's income being affected by the future of tech, we probably shouldn't worry. What do we care how consumers read our books, as long as they read them? Or listen to them on audio? We still cash in.

There is an aspect of income vs or via new tech that probably should interest us all and that's how we tailor our writing for that tech.  Eg, b/c I know many people read ebooks on smartphones, I try to write shorter paragraphs and shorter dialog.  That can result in more paras and more conversation.  But (I think) it eases the reader's reading task.  Do you all find the need to do things like  that?

Not yet, but I think it's coming. For example, instead of 300 page books, we'll probably be publishing lots of single-sitting serial-style installments that promote bingeing behavior. This will affect process because episodic writing is completely different than regular novel writing, especially when it comes to pacing.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2019, 06:36:24 AM by PJ Post »
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #48 on: November 23, 2019, 06:37:29 AM »
Do you all find the need to do things like  that?

I don't bother, but I don't write epic paragraphs either. On my iPhone 6 Plus, I get 3/4s of a normal printed page on-screen and have no problem reading the text, whether it's a solid block of text or including paragraphs.
Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."
 

Shoe

Re: Author's Income Survey
« Reply #49 on: November 23, 2019, 06:54:18 AM »
For example, the development of CPC marketing allowed Amazon to create the pay to play system we were all predicting, which not only turned Indie marketing upside down, it hammered profitability.

Before AMS (when did it start, BTW?), didn't indies just use paid promotional newsletters? My ROI using AMS is vastly superior to paid newsletters (aside from Bookbub). So wasn't it pay-to-play before AMS, at least to some degree?

As for tech and lifestyles, I've remarked before if you walked into the typical house of the 1930s, it wouldn't look much different from today's homes, aside from the computer, flat-TV, microwave, Echo dot, and smartphone (let's not speak of the frivolous tech like smart fridges or having Alexa turn the lights on. I really don't mind looking into the fridge or flicking a light switch on my own. But as you say, we're all different).



Martin Luther King: "Nothing in the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity."