Author Topic: Anybody else on lockdown in their area now? How are you surviving the pandemic?  (Read 4683 times)

Post-Crisis D

I'm a bit of a news junkie.  Not as much as I used to be, but still a bit.  And, now, I find myself avoiding news sites just to avoid the overload and subsequent stress/anxiety.  And that leads to news withdrawal or something.
 

Luke Everhart

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What I've suspected for a month...
Researchers at Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group conducted a modeling study that concludes that half of the U.K. population likely already have covid19. The same modeling applies to the U.S. generally. If correct it also implies that only one in a thousand people infected with COVID-19 require hospitalization.

Hopefully the study will be widely disseminated and discussed (it's Oxford University after all👍) and come to the attention of the U.K. government as well as President Trump.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-have-already-infected-half-of-uk-study-says/
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Luke Everhart

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What I've suspected for a month...
Researchers at Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group conducted a modeling study that concludes that half of the U.K. population likely already have covid19. The same modeling applies to the U.S. generally. If correct it also implies that only one in a thousand people infected with COVID-19 require hospitalization.

Hopefully the study will be widely disseminated and discussed (it's Oxford University after all👍) and come to the attention of the U.K. government as well as President Trump.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-may-have-already-infected-half-of-uk-study-says/

Bear in mind that up til this study the modeling and projections have been modeled on small sample sizes of the worst cases -- initially Hubei, then Italy.
With respect to some of the scarier and tragic infection/death patterns like Italy, the broad infection rate the study concludes would drastically change the relative mortality of those situations; though, a complement of other exacerbating factors in Italy have certainly contributed to a a situation that is indeed worse.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 11:49:21 AM by Luke Everhart »
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Assumed cases: 500,206
Current U.S. deaths: 606

That puts the CFR based on available data at 0.12%, roughly equivalent to that of seasonal flu

You can't calculate the CFR with any accuracy until there's an outcome.  For most recent cases, there's no outcome yet.  Let's say you have a tall building.  If an object falls off the top, it takes ten minutes before it hits the ground.  If a person jumps, then five minutes later nine more people jump, you can't claim a 10% CFR ten minutes in because only one person has hit the ground so far.

So everyone is effectively Schrodinger's Cat now?
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Shoe


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

If I'm reading correctly (above and elsewhere), threats are being downgraded as detection accelerates and general preparedness and response-time improve. Those vectors should cross pretty soon.

In some quarters, good news could derail the hopes of corporations eager for quick cash, particularly those that needed it before the crisis. Somehow, that bill in Congress went from $1 trillion to $2 trillion overnight. Let's say twenty-six million people end up needing assistance over the next couple of months, say, to the tune of $4000 each. That's $104 billion. Where's the rest of the money going?

Who has the most to gain from continued panic?

 
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DrewMcGunn

Also - if you hear me yelling at myself, don't worry, it's just a parent/teacher conference.

My little one did okay with the free math lesson from thinkwell yesterday (I'm bribing them with a $5 credit towards a lego set). I pulled up the vocab for next year, (Middle school choices were far better) and she used a word at dinner (Oaf). My older one said "That's a sixth grade word!" (How do you remember that, from three years ago, and can't remember to hang up your jacket?)

The dance school is starting virtual lessons this week, so the kids can keep learning the routines for the recital in June. I have zero to no hope the recital will happen but it is something for the little one to look forward to every week.

Wet heavy snow last night, the power went out but they got it back on. We have a standby generator but that was worrisome. Normally you go to someone's house who has a generator for a prolonged power outage, and they keep the senior center open, etc, all stuff we can't do now. Let's hope the snow just goes away already. My husband was prepared to hike up somewhere to ski but we got warnings about that as well after someone slid 700 feet down a trail and had to be rescued off a closed ski area.

I made a mask for my neighbor who was looking for one. She works in a psychiatric hospital and her son is in remission from leukemia, considered high risk. Last night the little one wanted to watch Frozen so I cut pieces while we did that. I'll make my neighbor 10 more so she can wash them, and keep making them. I can offer them to the neighborhood, if someone has to visit someone high risk, for the high risk people if they have to have someone in their home for some reason and my neighbor can give them to her co-workers. She is hands on with patients and there is literally no protection they can offer them. This project got me out of the fight or flight state I had been stuck in so I am immensely grateful for that.

I don't envy your weather.  Down here in Texas the bluebonnets are in bloom.



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notthatamanda

Oh those are so pretty.  Tulips and irises are poking through here, remains to be seen if they will survive, but we haven't had it really cold so maybe they will be okay.  We like the snow, usually, we ski a lot, but this is just adding insult to injury. The kids both freaked out when the power went out, even though the generator kicked right on. They must have deep memories of the 5 day power outages we went through.
 

VanessaC

If anyone likes flowers ... Apparently the Keukenof gardens are quite famous for the their tulips, and have some virtual tours posted on their facebook page, as no one can visit right now: https://www.facebook.com/visitkeukenhof/

Much tougher restrictions in the UK since Monday evening (it's currently Wednesday morning), and the inevitable hilarious arguments on social media about what the restrictions actually mean ... However, quite a lot of people are still having to go to work, not just emergency services and healthcare workers, so it's not a full "lockdown".

I am very, very lucky to live somewhere I can go for good walks from - don't need to travel anywhere. It really helps. Feeling so sorry for anyone in a flat or city centre with no accessible green space - that must be unbelievably tough.
     


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notthatamanda

If anyone likes flowers ... Apparently the Keukenof gardens are quite famous for the their tulips, and have some virtual tours posted on their facebook page, as no one can visit right now: https://www.facebook.com/visitkeukenhof/

Much tougher restrictions in the UK since Monday evening (it's currently Wednesday morning), and the inevitable hilarious arguments on social media about what the restrictions actually mean ... However, quite a lot of people are still having to go to work, not just emergency services and healthcare workers, so it's not a full "lockdown".

I am very, very lucky to live somewhere I can go for good walks from - don't need to travel anywhere. It really helps. Feeling so sorry for anyone in a flat or city centre with no accessible green space - that must be unbelievably tough.
I feel the same way. I can run a 10K without leaving my neighborhood. Also border woods of a couple of hundred acres with hiking trails. It is definitely way busier than usual on both but easy to keep 6 feet apart from everyone.

I grew up in a 31 story apartment building and my mom said they have two cases there. (She doesn't live there anymore.) The elevators, it's gotta be the elevators. I need to patent voice activation for elevators. I would definitely go nuts (nuttier) if I could not go outside.
 

LilyBLily

I agree cabin fever is a real issue for people in urban areas. I'm hearing that the public parks have far too many people walking the paths even in suburban areas. For us, with our own acres of woods, it's just a matter of going outside and wandering our property. Ours is small compared to what most people around here have. From the sounds I'm hearing daily, many of our neighbors are outside much of the day using power tools or shooting guns on their firing ranges. Yes, people around here really do have such, and apparently they are not thinking seriously about stockpiling ammo. Good to know.
 

notthatamanda

I can imagine the paved bike path around here would be bad, I quit doing that 20 years ago on weekends because it was just plain dangerous it was so crowded. My town put up fencing and angry signs around the play structures in the parks to keep people off them. I've seen a lot of people walking on the roads, far more than usual, we don't have a lot of sidewalks but please people, walk AGAINST the traffic flow.
 

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If anyone likes flowers ... Apparently the Keukenof gardens are quite famous for the their tulips, and have some virtual tours posted on their facebook page, as no one can visit right now: https://www.facebook.com/visitkeukenhof/

Much tougher restrictions in the UK since Monday evening (it's currently Wednesday morning), and the inevitable hilarious arguments on social media about what the restrictions actually mean ... However, quite a lot of people are still having to go to work, not just emergency services and healthcare workers, so it's not a full "lockdown".

I am very, very lucky to live somewhere I can go for good walks from - don't need to travel anywhere. It really helps. Feeling so sorry for anyone in a flat or city centre with no accessible green space - that must be unbelievably tough.
I would definitely go nuts (nuttier) if I could not go outside.

Parks and nature are essential for mental and physical health generally imo.
Was at a park yesterday with a couple friends playing a round. We kept the 6' distancing thing so that nobody would call the gestapo on us. The ducks were committing all kinds of social distancing violations though. ...I was cool about it and didn't report them, though.😏
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Talking of ducks....

The local ones have been chasing one particular duck all the time.

I wondered why until I saw its leg colour.

It's a New Zealand duck, obviously stranded here by the travel restrictions.

 :icon_mrgreen:
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Post-Crisis D

 

Post-Crisis D

There was a self-proclaimed prophet that said the coronavirus would all be over today (March 25th).  It'd just disappear and be done with or something.  He's got about twenty hours left to be correct.
 

dgcasey

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There was a self-proclaimed prophet that said the coronavirus would all be over today (March 25th).  It'd just disappear and be done with or something.  He's got about twenty hours left to be correct.

I think I would have believed him more if he said the world was going to end today.   grint
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Shoe

I notice my internet slowing down and it's not just me:

https://mashable.com/article/internet-slowing-down-eu-us/

Would this affect Kindle performance? (I don't own one.)

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notthatamanda

Our internet gets worse and then low and behold we get a call from the cable company asking if we want to upgrade to premium internet.
<middle finger emoji>
 

Lynn

My internet was really bad late last week but this week it seems to have improved a lot post-weekend.
Don't rush me.
 

Shoe

If I could figure out how to use Google Docs offline it could actually be a blessing if the internet blacked out. I might get something done.
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elleoco

My phone just went off with the kind of alarm usually reserved for dangerous conditions like fire, flooding, severe storms. This time it was an official lockdown notice for Colorado. Even so it was "you need to..." without any threat of what happens if you don't.

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And 2 nazis successfully exposed to the virus.
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I've just run out of Twisties. sh*t just got real.

Seriously though, while I've got main meals covered, and the cat covered, some of my binge stuff is either out, or about to be out.

No sign of Woolworths replying to my application for Priority status. Coles still MIA.

I may actually have to visit a supermarket soon. Haven't done that in a long time. And I'm not equipped for it. No mask, no hand sanitizer.

Oh, and the latest madness in Australia, most things are being shut down, but barbers and hairdressers get an exemption. Getting a good haircut is much more important than stopping the spread of a virus. Apparently.  :dizzy
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alhawke


I may actually have to visit a supermarket soon. Haven't done that in a long time. And I'm not equipped for it. No mask, no hand sanitizer.

Marketing has become my favorite social pastime. Yesterday my beer almost ended up being bagged for a stranger and the lady handed it to me with her bare hands. I was, like, noooooo  Grin
Can't wait for this all to be over.
 

notthatamanda

I've just run out of Twisties. sh*t just got real.

Seriously though, while I've got main meals covered, and the cat covered, some of my binge stuff is either out, or about to be out.

No sign of Woolworths replying to my application for Priority status. Coles still MIA.

I may actually have to visit a supermarket soon. Haven't done that in a long time. And I'm not equipped for it. No mask, no hand sanitizer.

Oh, and the latest madness in Australia, most things are being shut down, but barbers and hairdressers get an exemption. Getting a good haircut is much more important than stopping the spread of a virus. Apparently.  :dizzy
My kid's fifth grade teacher ordered clippers on amazon and Friday is going to let his wife cut his hair for the class to enjoy. There was a weird thing where barber shops and hair salons had to close early, but I think they are all closed all the time now.
 

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is going to let his wife cut his hair for the class to enjoy.

I've been cutting my own hair for years now.

If anyone comments, I just say it was done by a short sighted lunatic with pruning sheers.
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Anarchist

My kid's fifth grade teacher ordered clippers on amazon and Friday is going to let his wife cut his hair for the class to enjoy.

Sounds risky. Good luck to him.
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notthatamanda

It's probably better that they do it now rather than after another month of lockdown.
 

DrewMcGunn

is going to let his wife cut his hair for the class to enjoy.

I've been cutting my own hair for years now.

If anyone comments, I just say it was done by a short sighted lunatic with pruning sheers.

Going with honesty is the best policy, I see.  grint

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It's funny you mention that. This morning in my day-job inbox was an email with an attached PDF that we could show the authorities, showing that I'm part of an essential business covered under one of the exemptions listed as a “Critical Infrastructure Worker,” which is defined by the Federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (“CISA”) as part of the Department of Homeland Security operations.
Full disclosure - I work for an financial services company and more than 80% of my company's workforce are working from home. There are only a handful of people whose duties can't be done remotely.


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My sister, who still has the flu, did a supermarket run for me this morning.

Just about everything is limited to 2 items per shopper, meaning all you can buy at one time is 1 day's worth of food.

Which in an area with no noticeable virus penetration, or even mask wearage, is ridiculous.

Still no response from Woolworths on delivery. Still no facility from Coles.

We've regressed as a society back to the woman of the house has to make a food run every morning, same as they did back in WW2.

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Shoe

Some aspects of the lockdown and associated "panic" are having effects I wouldn't normally have considered. My daughter in California had eight deliveries last night (during a 16-hour shift). Three of them had begun as botched home deliveries because the parents were too afraid to go to the hospital. Two of them waited too long and lost their babies. The mother in another delivery had tested positive for coronavirus. That was a rushed c-section requiring they all wear hazmat suits. Another baby was premature and required immediate ICU. There's a special crib affair for that, but its ventilator was in another part of the hospital. And so on...

Halfway through her shift she had to sit and have a good cry, then get back to work. At the end of her shift, she had to put her already well-used n95 mask in a plastic bag to save it for the next shift. She just called me from her car on her way to it.
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Lynn

I actually wondered just a couple days ago if people would start trying to have their babies at home because of being worried about going to the hospital. I hate to see that because although home births can be okay when they're properly set up and managed they are more dangerous and I would never want to risk it.

I really feel for your daughter. That has to be terrible to see and so difficult to deal with the emotional fallout.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 12:04:13 PM by Lynn »
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notthatamanda

That's just awful.
 

LilyBLily

People on the frontlines are having a hard time, as they always do in a crisis. The only thing I can do for them is stay home and stay healthy so I won't become another on their list of burdens.

I hope the people sewing masks are actually allowed to give them to hospital workers, especially since cleaning cloth is easy enough with soap and water. I envision acres of red tape stopping these well-meant gifts from getting to where they're needed.   
 

Matthew

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My county has officially gone shelter in place. I had taken this week off as vacation. Luckily my day job allows me to work from home, so I'll be doing that for the foreseeable future.

Grocery stores have been practically empty the past two weeks. I've still been able to get some food, though definitely nothing to my preference. I was erm... "lucky" in that based on Italy's numbers I stockpiled a 3 week food supply before everyone else. But I'm still making my weekly grocery trips until I actually get sick, at which point I will self-isolate until I'm better (or hospitalized, or dead).

I'm most worried for my parents and some coworkers who are older. It's very scary to think that a handful of people I know will be dead within the year.

My writing has come more or less to a halt. Trying to ease back into it, but it's hard when you know you haven't reached the peak of the infections yet.

Hope everyone stays safe.
 

notthatamanda

People on the frontlines are having a hard time, as they always do in a crisis. The only thing I can do for them is stay home and stay healthy so I won't become another on their list of burdens.

I hope the people sewing masks are actually allowed to give them to hospital workers, especially since cleaning cloth is easy enough with soap and water. I envision acres of red tape stopping these well-meant gifts from getting to where they're needed.
I will let you know. They asked that question of the doctor at NYU Langone yesterday when I was listening to the radio. "Should we be making masks to give to hospital workers?" His answer "God I hope not."
He explained that the masks that they use in hospitals are specifically designed and tested so they KNOW that nothing is getting through them. So his answer was more "We are in really big trouble if it comes to that."
The elastic I ordered from Walmart supposedly shipped. I'll keep chugging along, though my output isn't impressive or anything. When I have the next batch done I'll email a neighbor who is a social worker at "City General" hospital, two towns away and see if they want them, if she is actually going to work. My neighbor at the psych hospital definitely wants them as they can't practice social distancing there. I was also thinking of calling the Memory Care Assisted Living in town and seeing it they wanted any, all the patients there are elderly/high risk. My thought is if people can't practice social distancing this is better than nothing.
 

notthatamanda

My county has officially gone shelter in place. I had taken this week off as vacation. Luckily my day job allows me to work from home, so I'll be doing that for the foreseeable future.

Grocery stores have been practically empty the past two weeks. I've still been able to get some food, though definitely nothing to my preference. I was erm... "lucky" in that based on Italy's numbers I stockpiled a 3 week food supply before everyone else. But I'm still making my weekly grocery trips until I actually get sick, at which point I will self-isolate until I'm better (or hospitalized, or dead).

I'm most worried for my parents and some coworkers who are older. It's very scary to think that a handful of people I know will be dead within the year.

My writing has come more or less to a halt. Trying to ease back into it, but it's hard when you know you haven't reached the peak of the infections yet.

Hope everyone stays safe.
I'm not able to write right now either. I'm cutting myself a break on that and trying to do other productive stuff. Going to seal the driveway when it gets warm enough. We are all going to have the best yards and flower gardens around here. You stay safe too.
 

Luke Everhart

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I get the impression a lot on this forum listen/read media reports and don't look at the actual CDC numbers very often or at all. Accordingly, the perception of profound doom and gloom is, as the media intends and thrives on, being fueled and a perception of events at odds with the reality is causing a lot of distress.
(Related note:  the media increasingly report new cases in the wake of increased testing and increasingly neglect to mention the exceedingly small number of fatalities.)

So, here are a few facts to ameliorate that distress:
Total U.S. fatalities since January 21st through today March 28th is 1711.
Some references for context flu deaths for 2017/2018 season were 61,099 (CDC link: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm)
The next reference is qualitatively different, being a lifestyle syndrome, and no comparison is being made with the reference; rather, I'm citing it to demonstrate the relatively small fatalities from covid in the landscape of modern life. Diabetes killed 83,564 in 2017 per CDC.
And finally, while of course no comparison is being made between accidents and a viral infection, I'm listing deaths by falls to emphasize the spontaneous fragility of life that simply comes with the journey. Fatalities by falls in the US in 2017 36,338 per CDC.

California, a state of 40 million, has 83 fatalities as of this morning.
Texas, a state of 29 million, has 23 fatalities as of this morning.
Yeah, New York has been hit by almost 1/3 of the U.S.'s 1711 fatalities; but, for perspective, the normal all cause mortality rate in New York is 419 deaths/day and covid has killed 519 in 9 weeks. (obviously the clusterfork living arrangements must have some bearing on it's fatalities as California with twice the population had its 1st confirmed case a week before NY but is still at only 83 deaths).

The point is perspective. Of course cases are rising. Both because we're testing more and because being a virus with flu-like transmissibility it'll likely infect 10-20 million in the US (Flu infected over 30 million this year per CDC & H1N1 had infected 60.8 million in 2009). Fatalities aren't remotely in the ballpark of cases and are increasingly almost absent from reporting because it might mitigate the riveting panic that is a boon to the media.
At this point, covid19 is like the hurricane that the media was sure was going to be a class 5 and hammered endlessly and hysterically for weeks; then, much to their disappointment, it fades to a tropical storm upon landfall and they get caught out like this:

https://youtu.be/tocuyJ1Fu7U?t=13
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 12:50:22 AM by Luke Everhart »
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LilyBLily

Actually, this site is as close as I get to the media reports other than a Lancet site that has tallies and some news alerts that come to my inbox, most of which I do not read. Stay home, remain calm, carry on. I get it.
 

notthatamanda

I feel bad for the various hospital workers that are risking infection and don't have adequate protection. Given the stress they are under and probably suffering from a lack of sleep, adequate nutrition and exercise, the virus will hit them harder than it would have. I'm not worried we are all going to die and my immediate family is all low risk. It doesn't have to be a complete destruction, or near destruction of the human race, for it to be upsetting. What we are seeing is upsetting enough to me.
 
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Shoe


At this point, covid19 is like the hurricane that the media was sure was going to be a class 5 and hammered endlessly and hysterically for weeks; then, much to their disappointment, it fades to a tropical storm upon landfall

Outside China, the actual virus has landed like a Category 5 hurricane in New York (and Italy, Spain). Here in Idaho, it's more like a thunderstorm with some gale-force winds in the south (Boise). No one is infected in my town. There's no question this is an "urban disease", which is stating the obvious, but also a touchy-feely disease (culturally significant in Italy and Spain). In New York it's both, really. When I lived there, I spent forty minutes a day riding in crowded elevators and subways.

What's significantly true is the numbers you're suggesting don't warrant a global economic meltdown. Blame who you will for that, but on a national and global economic scale, this is a Category 5 event. We'll all bear the brunt of this storm no matter where we live.

We're now in a "The worse is yet to come" mode, which doesn't inspire confidence. The media will no doubt suck this nipple dry.

Has the evidence mounted that a warm spring might deliver a lethal blow to the virus? Imagine if, in the end, it's climate change that saves us.




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notthatamanda


At this point, covid19 is like the hurricane that the media was sure was going to be a class 5 and hammered endlessly and hysterically for weeks; then, much to their disappointment, it fades to a tropical storm upon landfall

Outside China, the actual virus has landed like a Category 5 hurricane in New York (and Italy, Spain). Here in Idaho, it's more like a thunderstorm with some gale-force winds in the south (Boise). No one is infected in my town. There's no question this is an "urban disease", which is stating the obvious, but also a touchy-feely disease (culturally significant in Italy and Spain). In New York it's both, really. When I lived there, I spent forty minutes a day riding in crowded elevators and subways.

What's significantly true is the numbers you're suggesting don't warrant a global economic meltdown. Blame who you will for that, but on a national and global economic scale, this is a Category 5 event. We'll all bear the brunt of this storm no matter where we live.

We're now in a "The worse is yet to come" mode, which doesn't inspire confidence. The media will no doubt suck this nipple dry.

Has the evidence mounted that a warm spring might deliver a lethal blow to the virus? Imagine if, in the end, it's climate change that saves us.
The latest I've heard is that they just don't know yet.
 

TimothyEllis

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Has the evidence mounted that a warm spring might deliver a lethal blow to the virus? Imagine if, in the end, it's climate change that saves us.

Not really. Look at Iran. What I would call a hot country.

Australia is still in the end of summer.

I think it's wishful thinking of people in cold climates.

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notthatamanda

Anecdotally, it is really easier to get over a virus when it's 65F outside, versus 9. I'm not sure it will matter with this bug.
 

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Anecdotally, it is really easier to get over a virus when it's 65F outside, versus 9. I'm not sure it will matter with this bug.

65F is bloody cold!
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Lorri Moulton [Lavender Lass Books]

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Anecdotally, it is really easier to get over a virus when it's 65F outside, versus 9. I'm not sure it will matter with this bug.

65F is bloody cold!

Not for us in March.  It would be a heat wave! LOL
 
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Shoe


Not really. Look at Iran. What I would call a hot country.

It has a mild (not hot) winter. It's 58 there right now (night). February/early March highs in the 40s/50s.

In North Idaho 55 is shorts weather, 65 is shirtless--at 80 I stay inside with the A/C.
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Lorri Moulton [Lavender Lass Books]

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We must be further north.  We're five miles from Idaho and it's in the 30s to 40s most days.
 
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