Author Topic: Anybody else on lockdown in their area now? How are you surviving the pandemic?  (Read 14647 times)

Shoe

We must be further north.  We're five miles from Idaho and it's in the 30s to 40s most days.

I meant in general. Right now it's 45 in Moscow (ID) with a high of 51 expected. Low tonight 40.
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Hopscotch

I get the impression a lot on this forum listen/read media reports and don't look at the actual CDC numbers very often or at all. Accordingly, the perception of profound doom and gloom is, as the media intends and thrives on, being fueled and a perception of events at odds with the reality is causing a lot of distress....The point is perspective.

Really good to have Luke's continuing statstical analysis but have to say that people have put things in proper perspective:  they see that this flu spreads and kills at a rate current statistics based on limited reporting cannot measure well, there is no broadly effective cure and/or vaccine, and gov'ts so far have mishandled the response.  All that points people to recall the Spanish flu that infected a third of the world's population and killed 10% of those infected, including 600K deaths in the U.S.  So, until we have a vaccine, overreacting ain't overreacting.     
 

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https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

If I'm reading correctly (above and elsewhere), threats are being downgraded as detection accelerates and general preparedness and response-time improve. Those vectors should cross pretty soon.

In some quarters, good news could derail the hopes of corporations eager for quick cash, particularly those that needed it before the crisis. Somehow, that bill in Congress went from $1 trillion to $2 trillion overnight. Let's say twenty-six million people end up needing assistance over the next couple of months, say, to the tune of $4000 each. That's $104 billion. Where's the rest of the money going?

Who has the most to gain from continued panic?
Oddly enough, no one seems to have answered the questions you posed. This seems to be a good breakdown of where the bulk of the money is going: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trillion-stimulus-package/story?id=69791823

Basically, the plan seems to be four-pronged:
Keep businesses afloat
Provide immediate cash for low to mid-income people, as well as beefed up unemployment insurance for the jobless
Give aid to state and local governments which face unprecedented expenditures and declining revenues
Give aid to hospitals, many of which have already exhausted their own resources

There's other stuff in there as well, but that's the gist of it.

Earlier, I was one of the people urging others not to panic, so I like Luke's posts. That said, I'm not sure anyone is conspiring to make the news worse. Remember the old adage, "If it bleeds, it leads." The media has a natural tendency to play up disasters. While some businesses already in trouble might conceivably want to get hold of stimulus cash, creating a sense of impending doom is unlikely to be beneficial to most in the long run. Nor is it clearly beneficial to either party politically. In truth, the political impact of this kind of situation is unpredictable. The short-term, rally-around-the-flag response normally benefits the party in power, but it also puts that party under heightened scrutiny. Any mistakes made will come back to haunt that party in spades. And it's also pulling down the economic stats, a key Republican selling point. On the other hand, the pandemic tends to put all other political news on the back burner, something a challenger in an election never wants to see. So really, either party would be foolish to take a big gamble with public panic.

All of that said, I'm concerned some people aren't taking the situation seriously enough. We shouldn't panic, but she should take reasonable precautions, and many people still aren't. Sure, we aren't headed for the apocalypse, but some people may suffer needless injury and death because others didn't observe social distancing and other protocols.


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notthatamanda

Anecdotally, it is really easier to get over a virus when it's 65F outside, versus 9. I'm not sure it will matter with this bug.

65F is bloody cold!
That reminds me of the time we were in LA for my husband's cousin's wedding and the meteorologist said "Low of 65 tonight but don't forget the windchill makes it feel more like 58." Just about fell off the couch laughing.

 
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notthatamanda

We managed some productiveness to feel good about, even if we are tired and quite filthy we finished Cleaning Out Various Inconsequential Debris from under the deck. I have some stuff to take to the scrap metal dumpster (still open) and Best Buy (when they open) but it is much better. There is room under there for stuff we need (lawn mover, snowblower, etc) so the portable shelter will have more room for wood as my husband chops it, which he is sure to be doing a lot of over the next month.  He even hung up the clothes line so I should be able to save some money on electricity by running the dryer less.  So we feel somewhat good about that but still wish we were skiing.
 

Post-Crisis D

Has the evidence mounted that a warm spring might deliver a lethal blow to the virus? Imagine if, in the end, it's climate change that saves us.

Not really. Look at Iran. What I would call a hot country.

How high is the humidity in Iran?  The reason other viruses tend to become less of a problem in the summer months is that heat and humidity combined is what tends to do them in.  Heat dries them out and humidity in the air reduces how far they can travel when people cough.
 

RiverRun


https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid

In some quarters, good news could derail the hopes of corporations eager for quick cash, particularly those that needed it before the crisis. Somehow, that bill in Congress went from $1 trillion to $2 trillion overnight. Let's say twenty-six million people end up needing assistance over the next couple of months, say, to the tune of $4000 each. That's $104 billion. Where's the rest of the money going?

Who has the most to gain from continued panic?
Oddly enough, no one seems to have answered the questions you posed. This seems to be a good breakdown of where the bulk of the money is going: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trillion-stimulus-package/story?id=69791823

Basically, the plan seems to be four-pronged:
Keep businesses afloat
Provide immediate cash for low to mid-income people, as well as beefed up unemployment insurance for the jobless
Give aid to state and local governments which face unprecedented expenditures and declining revenues
Give aid to hospitals, many of which have already exhausted their own resources

There's other stuff in there as well, but that's the gist of it.


Like Nasa. And the National Endowment for the Arts.
 

shrouded1

I've been sick for about a month, got the test 8 days ago in Washington state, expecting results in a day or two. Although I hope I'm over most of the symptoms now, I developed terrible anxiety and insomnia during this time that hasn't gone away. And every time I cough, I have a panic attack. I've got a phone appointment tomorrow night with a therapist, but I'm starting to wonder if I'll ever sleep more than 2 to 3 hours a night.
So that's how it is for me.
 
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notthatamanda

I'm sorry. Insomnia is terrible. Hope you can straighten it out and get some sleep soon.
 

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I've been sick for about a month, got the test 8 days ago in Washington state, expecting results in a day or two. Although I hope I'm over most of the symptoms now, I developed terrible anxiety and insomnia during this time that hasn't gone away. And every time I cough, I have a panic attack. I've got a phone appointment tomorrow night with a therapist, but I'm starting to wonder if I'll ever sleep more than 2 to 3 hours a night.
So that's how it is for me.

Local author here has been going through the same thing. Her test came back negative yesterday.

Interestingly, she looks far sicker than someone who did a series of podcasts from the hospital who actually had the virus.
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shrouded1

I'm sorry. Insomnia is terrible. Hope you can straighten it out and get some sleep soon.

Thank you - I hope so too.
 

shrouded1

Local author here has been going through the same thing. Her test came back negative yesterday.

Interestingly, she looks far sicker than someone who did a series of podcasts from the hospital who actually had the virus.

The problem with being a writer is you often have too much imagination. Anxiety takes a hard toll. I'm glad she tested negative.
 

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The problem with being a writer is you often have too much imagination.

That's true.

I'm sitting here with most of the symptoms, but not an active flu. Hard not to assume you have it and are in incubation time. Sister has the flu, but can't get a test. So we cant be sure she doesn't have it. Which preys on the imagination again. But then, I am high risk. And high imagination.
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shrouded1

I'm sitting here with most of the symptoms, but not an active flu. Hard not to assume you have it and are in incubation time. Sister has the flu, but can't get a test. So we cant be sure she doesn't have it. Which preys on the imagination again. But then, I am high risk. And high imagination.

I know exactly what you're going through, Timothy. I hope you both get better soon.
 

LilyBLily

I've been sick for about a month, got the test 8 days ago in Washington state, expecting results in a day or two. Although I hope I'm over most of the symptoms now, I developed terrible anxiety and insomnia during this time that hasn't gone away. And every time I cough, I have a panic attack. I've got a phone appointment tomorrow night with a therapist, but I'm starting to wonder if I'll ever sleep more than 2 to 3 hours a night.
So that's how it is for me.

Sorry to hear this. I hope the test comes back negative--and the cough goes away.
 
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notthatamanda

The problem with being a writer is you often have too much imagination.

That's true.

I'm sitting here with most of the symptoms, but not an active flu. Hard not to assume you have it and are in incubation time. Sister has the flu, but can't get a test. So we cant be sure she doesn't have it. Which preys on the imagination again. But then, I am high risk. And high imagination.
I hope you both get better really quick.
 
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notthatamanda

So the thread topic - lockdown - how are you surviving - mental health addition

Now that we have another month in lock down, at least, it's hard to get motivated. But today is crappy weather so I am going to take a stab at the guestroom which got junked up when we moved everything in there to carpet our bedroom. I have extra bags from the market (can't use your own bags anymore) so I'll bag up the giant pile in the basement for donation so it will be ready whenever Savers reopened.

Yesterday I planted seeds (veggies) and I have more of that to do. I want to lift today because I only did it once this week. I kept saying I'll do it tomorrow.

This site has free craft classes till 4/7, if anyone is interested.

https://www.mybluprint.com/?cr_source=Bing&cr_medium=SEM&cr_maid=120229&cr_linkid=382274632-1216060252289640-76003867950122&msclkid=0cf4bad117e015829f37e4518d2fb1d8

The younger one and I watched a cake decorating video yesterday. I'm going to look for one on felting too. Mom brag - they each won the special department award the past two years (Alice in Wonderland Cake and Unicorn Cake) and the little one was top exhibitor two years in a row as well.

I hope everyone feels good today, physically and mentally, but if you're not say so. Anyway you look at it this sucks. Making the best of it doesn't mean pretending it doesn't.
 

Shoe

I'd been hearing more sirens recently, especially at night, and assumed it was due to EMS and cops responding to possible infections (there are none so far in my town). Last night they were especially frequent, so I looked at the published police logs over the past few days. About half of the calls related to domestic violence situations, husbands calling cops on wives and vice-versa, with alcohol a common feature.

I hadn't thought of it before, but our lockdown must be especially challenging to couples in fragile marriages.

Someone somewhere mentioned there will be a post-pandemic baby boom around New Years. It's easy to connect those dots. I wonder if there will also a dramatic uptick in divorces. 
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I hadn't thought of it before, but our lockdown must be especially challenging to couples in fragile marriages.

Our PM today actually allocated extra money to exactly that.

The one thing I've been wondering though, is if alcohol has the same restrictions and same hoarding as other stuff has been. Idle speculation.
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Anarchist

I hadn't thought of it before, but our lockdown must be especially challenging to couples in fragile marriages.

Someone somewhere mentioned there will be a post-pandemic baby boom around New Years. It's easy to connect those dots. I wonder if there will also a dramatic uptick in divorces.

https://pagesix.com/2020/03/24/divorce-rates-jumping-in-corona-quarantined-couples/

Not the best source, but seems about right.

Being quarantined and irritable is a terrible combo.
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A terrific article from a retired Professor of Pathology and NHS consultant pathologist on interpreting the data and evaluating the passing scene of covid19 and the responses to it. Essential reading

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think



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A terrific article from a retired Professor of Pathology and NHS consultant pathologist on interpreting the data and evaluating the passing scene of covid19 and the responses to it. Essential reading

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-evidence-on-Covid-19-is-not-as-clear-as-we-think

 :goodpost:

Damned good article which backs up what I've been thinking since the beginning.

Just the whole idea that stats are not the same in each country makes comparing them totally useless.

The example of one country counting deaths where covid-19 is found in the body after death, while another is counting only those deaths known to be caused by the virus, means the 2 death rates cannot even be compared in any meaningful way. And yet it appears they have been, and that's where all the panic is coming from, because projections are being based on the wrong stats.
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notthatamanda

I hadn't thought of it before, but our lockdown must be especially challenging to couples in fragile marriages.

Our PM today actually allocated extra money to exactly that.

The one thing I've been wondering though, is if alcohol has the same restrictions and same hoarding as other stuff has been. Idle speculation.
What does that mean exactly?  Free marriage counseling? I'm genuinely curious.
 

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I hadn't thought of it before, but our lockdown must be especially challenging to couples in fragile marriages.

Our PM today actually allocated extra money to exactly that.

The one thing I've been wondering though, is if alcohol has the same restrictions and same hoarding as other stuff has been. Idle speculation.
What does that mean exactly?  Free marriage counseling? I'm genuinely curious.

No, police response, lifeline and other call services, and women's shelters. That sort of thing. Not limited to women either.
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Quote

How high is the humidity in Iran?  The reason other viruses tend to become less of a problem in the summer months is that heat and humidity combined is what tends to do them in.  Heat dries them out and humidity in the air reduces how far they can travel when people cough.

Durban, South Africa

We are coming to the end of our hot and humid summer. A famous Durban saying, as you mop your sweating brow and neck, is: 'it's not the heat, it's the humidity'. It's hard to tell if you've got a fever as you are hot and sweaty most of the time. But we haven't escaped the virus. Although SA has 1176 cases and one death, we've just heard of two elderly ladies in a retirement home not too far away from where I live who have contracted the virus. As we enter the autumn and winter flu season we are likely to get a real spike.
In our retirement village they've padlocked the gate to make sure that residents don't let in any visitors and we have to go through management to leave and enter. The carers in our frail-care section have been given an empty cottage to live in during our 21 day lockdown so that they don't leave the premises. We are all vulnerable as the over 60s probably won't be given a ventilator should it get to the stage of running out of them.  :icon_sad:
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 12:17:06 PM by TimothyEllis »

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Jeff Tanyard

It's hard to tell if you've got a fever as you are hot and sweaty most of the time.


If you're sweating, then you probably don't have a fever.  Sweating is what happens when the fever breaks.

Sweating is good and healthy.  It keeps the pores flushed out.  Embrace the sweat.   :ices_angel_g:
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Shoe

Idaho's state shutdown was supposed to end on the eleventh of April, which seemed manageable. With the federal guidelines now continuing to April thirtieth, with Idaho likely to follow, it sounds a little more daunting. My life hasn't exactly been turned upside down by the pandemic, but the enforced isolation is becoming weary nonetheless. I wonder how parents will manage, especially those with moody teenagers.

The day we get the "all clear" will likely be one to remember.
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Please everyone needs to watch/listen to this. It's essential info

It's from an official briefing by Dr Birx

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Shoe

Please everyone needs to watch/listen to this. It's essential info

We're in a phase now of normalizing the horror statistics and to such a degree that 100,000 deaths could be viewed as dodging the bullet (I don't personally feel we'll get anywhere near that number). It's important to keep in mind 20,000 possibly avoidable deaths is an extraordinarily high number to take lightly.

But I think the real story here will be told in the aftermath. It's clear millions of Americans face another month of uncertainties and the emotional damages may be severe.
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Luke Everhart

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Please everyone needs to watch/listen to this. It's essential info

We're in a phase now of normalizing the horror statistics and to such a degree that 100,000 deaths could be viewed as dodging the bullet (I don't personally feel we'll get anywhere near that number). It's important to keep in mind 20,000 possibly avoidable deaths is an extraordinarily high number to take lightly.

But I think the real story here will be told in the aftermath. It's clear millions of Americans face another month of uncertainties and the emotional damages may be severe.

Not to take lightly but to understand that it is not exceptional; in fact, the 20,000 cited in the revised United Kingdom numbers is very close to the annual deaths in the United Kingdom from flu which average 17,000 per year, with a range in recent years of 15,000 to 28,000. (U.S. flu deaths average 46,000 with recent years as low as 32,000 and as high as 61,000.)

And it's certainly not grounds for policies that are destroying not only the economy but lives. We live with far greater numbers of daily tragedies. Annual worldwide flu deaths are 300,000 to 600,000 per CDC, annual traffic fatalities worldwide are 1,350,000 per CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html ), annual worldwide deaths from malaria 450,000 to 550,000, etc.

The early, woefully inaccurate models have precipitated policy reactions that will reap far more lives in suicides, broken marriages, homelessness, lack of medical care from loss of jobs leading to preventable deaths from any number of causes, and so on.
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Shoe


The early, woefully inaccurate models have precipitated policy reactions that will reap far more lives in suicides, broken marriages, homelessness, lack of medical care from loss of jobs leading to preventable deaths from any number of causes, and so on.

I can't disagree. We're about to slip into a boiling stew of misery. Hopefully, next time we'll be better prepared.
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Some good news at last.

I submitted my Mum for priority deliveries with Woolworths yesterday, and they approved it this morning.

Next delivery slot is thursday. Anyone's guess as to what I actually get, but ordered most of what we need.

The worrying thing is, all sorts of 'normal' brands come back with search inclusions, but not found, which suggests suppliers are shutting down, and supermarkets are not getting whole product lines anymore.

Something of a relief to get back on deliveries with someone. Coles have still not launched their version of priority deliveries yet.
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Some good news at last.

I submitted my Mum for priority deliveries with Woolworths yesterday, and they approved it this morning.

Next delivery slot is thursday. Anyone's guess as to what I actually get, but ordered most of what we need.

The worrying thing is, all sorts of 'normal' brands come back with search inclusions, but not found, which suggests suppliers are shutting down, and supermarkets are not getting whole product lines anymore.

Something of a relief to get back on deliveries with someone. Coles have still not launched their version of priority deliveries yet.

A nice reminder of a general need out there.
The petty tyrant county judge Clay Jenkins, a man who likely gets tumescent exercising undue authority on others, closed down Dallas County last week. My workplace was a casualty. I can't do the stay at home thing. I'll probably look into volunteering for meals on wheels or a similar service this week to deliver stuff to the elderly and homebound in lieu of sheltering in place now that Trump's disappointed the hell out of me and extended the guidelines until the end of April.
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Bill Hiatt

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Please everyone needs to watch/listen to this. It's essential info

We're in a phase now of normalizing the horror statistics and to such a degree that 100,000 deaths could be viewed as dodging the bullet (I don't personally feel we'll get anywhere near that number). It's important to keep in mind 20,000 possibly avoidable deaths is an extraordinarily high number to take lightly.

But I think the real story here will be told in the aftermath. It's clear millions of Americans face another month of uncertainties and the emotional damages may be severe.

Not to take lightly but to understand that it is not exceptional; in fact, the 20,000 cited in the revised United Kingdom numbers is very close to the annual deaths in the United Kingdom from flu which average 17,000 per year, with a range in recent years of 15,000 to 28,000. (U.S. flu deaths average 46,000 with recent years as low as 32,000 and as high as 61,000.)

And it's certainly not grounds for policies that are destroying not only the economy but lives. We live with far greater numbers of daily tragedies. Annual worldwide flu deaths are 300,000 to 600,000 per CDC, annual traffic fatalities worldwide are 1,350,000 per CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html ), annual worldwide deaths from malaria 450,000 to 550,000, etc.

The early, woefully inaccurate models have precipitated policy reactions that will reap far more lives in suicides, broken marriages, homelessness, lack of medical care from loss of jobs leading to preventable deaths from any number of causes, and so on.
Being an optimist, I'd love to believe your assessment of the situation. Two things keep me from immediately leaping on board:

First, why is it that so many medical professionals don't seem to agree with Dr. Birx? Dr. Fauci was just saying in the last couple of days that the worst case scenario for the US (assuming no preventive measures) was 100,000 deaths. I know models can be inaccurate, but it's interesting that we aren't seeing agreement on what the inaccuracies are. It's also important to note that we have many years of data on flu deaths and infection patterns. We have data on Covid-19 in humans for only a short period of time. So maybe the more pessimistic models were inaccurate, but who's to say the adjusted models will pan out? Maybe the 20,000 estimated deaths in the UK is an underestimate. The truth is that we don't know yet.

Second, what current data we do have on Covid-19 is doubtless influenced by measures taken to mitigate the infection rate. How do we know what would have happened if, for example, the US and the individual states had been doing a lot less? The fact that the US has a higher infection rate than China (which took much more drastic measures much earlier) is suggestive in this regard. The variations in local infection rates also suggest there may be variables we haven't isolated yet. For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

We do know one thing. When cases continue to escalate, the infection is not yet contained. NY predictions suggest the problem will get worse for the next 21 days before it peaks. By that time, California may be experiencing rates comparable to what NY has now. We just don't know yet.

We all want the current shutdown to be relaxed or eliminated as soon as possible. But there's still a lot we don't know--or at least, that's how it seems to me.


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notthatamanda

Please everyone needs to watch/listen to this. It's essential info

We're in a phase now of normalizing the horror statistics and to such a degree that 100,000 deaths could be viewed as dodging the bullet (I don't personally feel we'll get anywhere near that number). It's important to keep in mind 20,000 possibly avoidable deaths is an extraordinarily high number to take lightly.

But I think the real story here will be told in the aftermath. It's clear millions of Americans face another month of uncertainties and the emotional damages may be severe.

Not to take lightly but to understand that it is not exceptional; in fact, the 20,000 cited in the revised United Kingdom numbers is very close to the annual deaths in the United Kingdom from flu which average 17,000 per year, with a range in recent years of 15,000 to 28,000. (U.S. flu deaths average 46,000 with recent years as low as 32,000 and as high as 61,000.)

And it's certainly not grounds for policies that are destroying not only the economy but lives. We live with far greater numbers of daily tragedies. Annual worldwide flu deaths are 300,000 to 600,000 per CDC, annual traffic fatalities worldwide are 1,350,000 per CDC (https://www.cdc.gov/injury/features/global-road-safety/index.html ), annual worldwide deaths from malaria 450,000 to 550,000, etc.

The early, woefully inaccurate models have precipitated policy reactions that will reap far more lives in suicides, broken marriages, homelessness, lack of medical care from loss of jobs leading to preventable deaths from any number of causes, and so on.
Being an optimist, I'd love to believe your assessment of the situation. Two things keep me from immediately leaping on board:

First, why is it that so many medical professionals don't seem to agree with Dr. Birx? Dr. Fauci was just saying in the last couple of days that the worst case scenario for the US (assuming no preventive measures) was 100,000 deaths. I know models can be inaccurate, but it's interesting that we aren't seeing agreement on what the inaccuracies are. It's also important to note that we have many years of data on flu deaths and infection patterns. We have data on Covid-19 in humans for only a short period of time. So maybe the more pessimistic models were inaccurate, but who's to say the adjusted models will pan out? Maybe the 20,000 estimated deaths in the UK is an underestimate. The truth is that we don't know yet.

Second, what current data we do have on Covid-19 is doubtless influenced by measures taken to mitigate the infection rate. How do we know what would have happened if, for example, the US and the individual states had been doing a lot less? The fact that the US has a higher infection rate than China (which took much more drastic measures much earlier) is suggestive in this regard. The variations in local infection rates also suggest there may be variables we haven't isolated yet. For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

We do know one thing. When cases continue to escalate, the infection is not yet contained. NY predictions suggest the problem will get worse for the next 21 days before it peaks. By that time, California may be experiencing rates comparable to what NY has now. We just don't know yet.

We all want the current shutdown to be relaxed or eliminated as soon as possible. But there's still a lot we don't know--or at least, that's how it seems to me.
Everything about lockdown stinks but I am willing to continue doing it until we have a handle on this thing.  Until we are really sure we have a handle on it.
 
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TimothyEllis

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For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

Cultural issues.

As I've said before, Italians are kissers and huggers. They greet people by kissing them on both cheeks. That's an immediate transfer of body fluids, where the virus is ejected from the body through the mouth. Hugging places the mouth alongside the neck, and transmission could be through the ears.

Large parts of Europe have the same sort of greetings.

As I've also suggested, New York, which is heavily high-rise in nature, has elevator buttons and stair rails to transfer from person to person via. The hands touch, and go to the face.

Australians on the other hand are mainly hand shakers, and that stopped pretty quickly. As did hugging greetings.
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notthatamanda

I commuted on the NYC subway system for high school and when I worked summers into Manhattan. My family only owned a car for about 3 months when I was 7. (I'm fifty-one). We went everywhere on the subway. The phrase packed in like sardines in a can is not an understatement. On a given commute during rush hour I probably shared respiratory vapors with a hundred people in each direction. 
 

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From Dr. Mike Ryan, World Health Organization, just now:

Quote
The question is how do you go down [flatten the curve]? And going down, isnít just about a lockdown and let go. To get down from the numbers, not just stabilize, requires a re-doubling of public health efforts, to push down. It won't go down by itself, it will be pushed down.


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I've read a few mentions of high amount of smokers in some European countries and that northern Italy had a lot of air pollution from factories. 

It has been suggested that air quality and smoking, etc. might have an impact since this virus attacks the lungs, but I don't know if any official statement has been made.

Also, very sad how many people who survived cancer are dying from the virus.  I'm willing to stay home for another month if it will make a difference.
 
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notthatamanda

I would think if your breathing is impaired, anything that affects your breathing negatively is going to be more severe. I did some research on carbon monoxide poisoning for my last book. Smokers always have CO bonding to their red blood cells. The more you smoke, the worse it is. Now add a disease that prevents oxygen from getting into the blood stream and combine that with the decreased ability of red blood cells to carry oxygen...not good.
 
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Shoe


Cultural issues.

I ditto that and would suggest it's the primary cause of Italy's devastating experiences (and perhaps Spain's as well). Smoking habits and age likely sealed the deal.

Population density is certainly a factor elsewhere, but I do wonder about some of the variances out there. New York streets and subways are crowded, but nothing like I've seen in Tokyo, where the virus has been contained (more or less, I think). Some pedestrian crosswalks there have more people crossing every five minutes than are living in my town. Still, people remain at respectful distances. In New York, it always bump and, occasionally, grind. Culturally speaking, New Yorkers aren't big kissers unless people are putting on airs, which makes me wonder if basic hygiene is also a factor.

If you enjoy going down rabbit holes, Google "Personal Hygiene Around The World". In India, people bathe twice a day (if we're including buckets poured over the head), whereas in America we get by with 6.5 showers a week, meaning we reek compared to the average Aussie, who bathes an average of eight times a week and prefers shower gels over soap.*

I was surprised to learn Brazilians and Columbians are the cleanest people in the world.

Anyway, layering the coronavirus gisanddata maps with hygiene statistics doesn't yet offer any firm correlations, but I suspect someday when all the data is collected we will see a pattern.


*https://www.soakology.co.uk/blog/bathing-habits-of-the-world/
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Jeff Tanyard

For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

Cultural issues.

As I've said before, Italians are kissers and huggers. They greet people by kissing them on both cheeks. That's an immediate transfer of body fluids, where the virus is ejected from the body through the mouth. Hugging places the mouth alongside the neck, and transmission could be through the ears.


Another bit of food for thought:


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So I logged into Coles to check something, and found I could actually get a delivery slot. So big order coming now. No idea how much I will get though.

But some sanity returning to my life now. Between both supermarket chains, I should be able to get most of what I need.

(Waiting for the other shoe to drop.)
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VanessaC


Being an optimist, I'd love to believe your assessment of the situation. Two things keep me from immediately leaping on board:

First, why is it that so many medical professionals don't seem to agree with Dr. Birx? Dr. Fauci was just saying in the last couple of days that the worst case scenario for the US (assuming no preventive measures) was 100,000 deaths. I know models can be inaccurate, but it's interesting that we aren't seeing agreement on what the inaccuracies are. It's also important to note that we have many years of data on flu deaths and infection patterns. We have data on Covid-19 in humans for only a short period of time. So maybe the more pessimistic models were inaccurate, but who's to say the adjusted models will pan out? Maybe the 20,000 estimated deaths in the UK is an underestimate. The truth is that we don't know yet.

Second, what current data we do have on Covid-19 is doubtless influenced by measures taken to mitigate the infection rate. How do we know what would have happened if, for example, the US and the individual states had been doing a lot less? The fact that the US has a higher infection rate than China (which took much more drastic measures much earlier) is suggestive in this regard. The variations in local infection rates also suggest there may be variables we haven't isolated yet. For example, I can't see a good explanation for why infection rates and death rates are higher in Italy than in adjacent countries. If we don't know what causes accelerated contagion, how do we really know that any model will be accurate.

We do know one thing. When cases continue to escalate, the infection is not yet contained. NY predictions suggest the problem will get worse for the next 21 days before it peaks. By that time, California may be experiencing rates comparable to what NY has now. We just don't know yet.

We all want the current shutdown to be relaxed or eliminated as soon as possible. But there's still a lot we don't know--or at least, that's how it seems to me.

Just taking a moment to say thank you to Bill - I always appreciate your posts, and the way you always try to see both sides and find a way through. Very much needed in the current extraordinary times!

     



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Just a coronavirus update that COVID19 has to kill another 535,855 people to equal the 2009 H1N1 deaths that the media largely ignored & nothing shutdown during.
Running tally:
H1N1 2009: 575,400 dead
Covid19 2020: 39,545 dead
Posted for perspective. Obviously we all hope that doesn't happen. If it doesn't there needs to be a heckuva lot of mea culpas, eating crow, and paying out lawsuits by the various government agencies and representatives.

Shamu is spinning in his watery grave btw: SeaWorld, which was forced to close all 12 of its locations due to shutdown policies, has announced they've had to fire 90% of their employees. 🐳🐋🐬☹️
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You need to do that as a Facebook style graphic.
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notthatamanda

Just a coronavirus update that COVID19 has to kill another 535,855 people to equal the 2009 H1N1 deaths that the media largely ignored & nothing shutdown during.
Running tally:
H1N1 2009: 575,400 dead
Covid19 2020: 39,545 dead
Posted for perspective. Obviously we all hope that doesn't happen. If it doesn't there needs to be a heckuva lot of mea culpas, eating crow, and paying out lawsuits by the various government agencies and representatives.

Shamu is spinning in his watery grave btw: SeaWorld, which was forced to close all 12 of its locations due to shutdown policies, has announced they've had to fire 90% of their employees. 🐳🐋🐬☹️
Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.
 

Shoe


Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.

I don't think that fits into the narrative Luke's proposing. Fortunately, we'll never know how many Covid-19 fatalities there would have been had we never reacted with shutdowns, etc., though those initial statistics and graphs were suggestive.

The various narratives unfolding:

1.  We've overreacted to the virus's threat and we are ruining our economy.

2.  We've underreacted to the threat, which will ruin our economy.

3.  Run for your life!

4.  This is where I land. We were slow to respond to the threat, we've taken corrective measures to
     hopefully minimize fatalities and suffering, and the economy will ultimately survive.

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Luke Everhart

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Or it could be that the social distancing measures worked and less people got sick.

I don't think that fits into the narrative Luke's proposing. Fortunately, we'll never know how many Covid-19 fatalities there would have been had we never reacted with shutdowns, etc., though those initial statistics and graphs were suggestive.

The various narratives unfolding:

1.  We've overreacted to the virus's threat and we are ruining our economy.

2.  We've underreacted to the threat, which will ruin our economy.

3.  Run for your life!

4.  This is where I land. We were slow to respond to the threat, we've taken corrective measures to
     hopefully minimize fatalities and suffering, and the economy will ultimately survive.

I'm NOT proposing a narrative 🙄 I'm citing data to assuage concerns and because most people consume media and don't spend time checking CDC and similar original sources. Yes, much of that data is at odds with the narrative being spun by the media and abetted by politicians and I'm glad that is the case as their narrative is apocalyptic gloom and doom, but I'm not actively championing a counter-narrative as much as hard data.

I've linked a video from Dr Birx with the coronavirus task force discussing the profound disparity between the models and the reality on the ground. In video she has stated that we've not seen an infection rate greater than 1 in 1000 anywhere. That is, as she said, only reconcilable with the models and assumptions on transmissibility if either the vast majority of coronavirus cases are asymptomatic (if true and even half of cases are asymptomatic and not represented then the CFR may be below that of the flu), or if our assumption on the R0 (infection rate) of the virus is grossly overstated.

We'll never know precisely what, if any, effect the social distancing and related policies have had; however, we can watch an example unfold that has done nothing more than rely on civic responsibility to mind one's own risk and be conscientious of others without shutting anything down in the example of Sweden. To date they have 180 deaths in a population of just over 10 million, a death rate of 0.0018%.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 05:02:01 AM by Luke Everhart »
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I'm NOT proposing a narrative 🙄

I didn't mean "narrative" in a negative way. Your arguments seem to lean a certain direction, which I view as food for thought. Though my conclusions may vary, I do appreciate your posts. You back yourself up.

It's going to be very interesting to watch Sweden.
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