Author Topic: Anybody else on lockdown in their area now? How are you surviving the pandemic?  (Read 15293 times)

Luke Everhart

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Yep, water/liquid cooled. For high-end gaming PCs it's pretty standard. You can get a pretty good liquid cooling kit for mainstream demands (as opposed to competitive gaming which is a while different price tier) for about $150

My gaming computer uses liquid cooling. Or did. I don't game anymore but I used to be a world of warcrafter (gnome mage 😁) among others. I do plan on getting back into MMORPGs when the new superhero mmorpgs in development (3 in the works by competing companies) finally hit the market though. (I don't do the beta test opt in stuff anymore).

I definitely need to look for one of those. My problem is that I never know which new part will work with my PC--or sometimes even what parts I need to replace. I just upgraded a lot of the components a year or so ago, but I don't think I touched the fan.

I haven't played an MMO in years, but my favorite was SWTOR because of the great and elaborate story content. I did play WoW a bit before that (male worgen warrior, though I had many alts), and I found that the story content was entirely nonexistent, so once I level capped, I was bored and gave up.

I do find the term "more affluent Wal-Mart" to be a bit of contradiction in terms. Not sure that comparing it to the "less affluent Wal-Mart" actually tells us anything about income levels and mask wearing.

I agree that in game there isn't a lot of story content. What I did for that aspect was read all the WoW books (there's a bunch of novels set in the world).
In the game, I did some PVE level capped but mostly I did PVP. I was pretty good 😁 I actually got on the international leaderboard in both arena and rated battlegrounds (high 2700s in arena, 2500s in RBGs). Also loved zapping (I was a mage, we zap) hordes outside Orgrimmar and dueling (I had a 111 to 1 win-loss ratio on duels which is kinda insane but, you know, I was a gnome and we are a wicked smart people 😉). And collecting mounts and pets. I had a TON of cool mounts and pets.

I'm not sure the Walmart thing says anything about mask habits and income either; or, if it does, whether it's something good or bad or meaningful. I just found the difference really striking. But there are "more affluent Walmarts". The store isn't particularly different but the neighborhood and the Mercedes Benz S-Class (and similar) parked outside it sure are.
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LilyBLily


<snip>

I do find the term "more affluent Wal-Mart" to be a bit of contradiction in terms. Not sure that comparing it to the "less affluent Wal-Mart" actually tells us anything about income levels and mask wearing.

The language may not be precise, but when I had a job involving visiting all the Walmarts in a given area, some were definitely being patronized by an upper-class clientele and others by working class. This is because in general people will not go very far to shop. A long time ago, I worked in a mall bookstore, and if we did not have a book, we would always recommend that the customer seek it at Borders, which was about 12 miles away from our store and a straight shot down the main road. (We were not affiliated with Borders, but we were nice people.) We could see by the look in their eyes that they weren't going, even for this book they said they really, really wanted.   

People will travel long distances to go to an Ikea, I hear. Not me.
 

Shawna


I agree that in game there isn't a lot of story content. What I did for that aspect was read all the WoW books (there's a bunch of novels set in the world).
In the game, I did some PVE level capped but mostly I did PVP. I was pretty good 😁 I actually got on the international leaderboard in both arena and rated battlegrounds (high 2700s in arena, 2500s in RBGs). Also loved zapping (I was a mage, we zap) hordes outside Orgrimmar and dueling (I had a 111 to 1 win-loss ratio on duels which is kinda insane but, you know, I was a gnome and we are a wicked smart people 😉). And collecting mounts and pets. I had a TON of cool mounts and pets.

I'm not sure the Walmart thing says anything about mask habits and income either; or, if it does, whether it's something good or bad or meaningful. I just found the difference really striking. But there are "more affluent Walmarts". The store isn't particularly different but the neighborhood and the Mercedes Benz S-Class (and similar) parked outside it sure are.

Yeah, I think the main reason WoW doesn't resonate with me all that much is because I'm not particularly competitive, so games that focus on competitive play get boring for me very quickly. I also really don't care for the character design (especially after they "updated" the graphics a few years ago).

I guess I may just not live in a place that has Walmarts in the nice areas of town.
 

Luke Everhart

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How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008
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idontknowyet

How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008

Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.
 

notthatamanda

How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008

Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.
Oh no, crossing my fingers that it's just a bad summer cold with allergies and a side of psychosomatic symptoms. (No offense, I convince myself at least once every couple of weeks I have it.) My kid's teacher who cancelled the meet up meetings on Tuesday with a fever was back on Wednesday. I hope your brother recovers as quickly.
 

Luke Everhart

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How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008

Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.

Deaths and hospitalizations are doing great in Florida and are an objective measure unaffected by the availability of testing.
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idontknowyet

How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008

Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.

Deaths and hospitalizations are doing great in Florida and are an objective measure unaffected by the availability of testing.
2k deaths is great???? um i'm sure my brother will find that comforting.
And of course the spread in florida is slower. We live outside in single family homes. The only places we can get it is in stores and restaurants even the majority of space in theme parks is outdoors which slows the spread The indoor spaces are heavily air conditioned forcing the aerosolized particles down to the ground which slows spread even more. Denying people that work in close quarters in essential jobs is a great way to do business. Two thumbs up for that.
 

Luke Everhart

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How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008

Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.

Deaths and hospitalizations are doing great in Florida and are an objective measure unaffected by the availability of testing.
2k deaths is great???? um i'm sure my brother will find that comforting.
And of course the spread in florida is slower. We live outside in single family homes. The only places we can get it is in stores and restaurants even the majority of space in theme parks is outdoors which slows the spread The indoor spaces are heavily air conditioned forcing the aerosolized particles down to the ground which slows spread even more. Denying people that work in close quarters in essential jobs is a great way to do business. Two thumbs up for that.

It is comforting statistically. It means the odds of dying from covid19 in Florida are infinitesimal.
In a state with a population of 21,480,000, yeah, it's very good. It actually puts it below the majority of causes of death the CDC tracks for that state.
Florida deaths are at 2145 which puts Florida covid19 deaths at almost exactly 0.0001 of the population.

You'll be happy to know the trend has been downward in Florida for both hospitalizations and deaths since it began reopening. In fact, per ABC news on This Week with George Stephanopoulos this past Sunday, all 21 states that are in reopening stages have not had any spike in deaths or hospitalizations and the majority have shown declines since opening.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 07:30:51 AM by Luke Everhart »
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idontknowyet

How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008
Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.

Deaths and hospitalizations are doing great in Florida and are an objective measure unaffected by the availability of testing.
2k deaths is great???? um i'm sure my brother will find that comforting.
And of course the spread in florida is slower. We live outside in single family homes. The only places we can get it is in stores and restaurants even the majority of space in theme parks is outdoors which slows the spread The indoor spaces are heavily air conditioned forcing the aerosolized particles down to the ground which slows spread even more. Denying people that work in close quarters in essential jobs is a great way to do business. Two thumbs up for that.

It is comforting statistically. It means the odds of dying from covid19 in Florida are infinitesimal.
In a state with a population of 21,480,000, yeah, it's very good. It actually puts it below the majority of causes of death the CDC tracks for that state.
Florida deaths are at 2145 which puts Florida covid19 deaths at almost exactly 0.0001 of the population.

You'll be happy to know the trend has been downward in Florida for both hospitalizations and deaths since it began reopening. In fact, per ABC news on This Week with George Stephanopoulos this past Sunday, all 21 states that are in reopening stages have not had any spike in deaths or hospitalizations and the majority have shown declines since opening.
In the last 5 days of the lockdown there were less than 3k new cases in florida. In the last 5 days there were 6.5k new cases in florida. That is a decline in the number of reported cases??!?!??! :icon_think:  :icon_think:.

From 4/26-5/1 there were 9.8k deaths in the usa. from 5/16-5/21 there were over 12.2k deaths in the usa. That is a decline in death rate?



 

Luke Everhart

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How Florida is surviving the pandemic:
(a 1m20s clip of Gov DeSantis on the current state)

https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1263437616202027008
Yup florida is doing great. That's why my brother who got sent home with suspected covid was told he could get a test next week with symptoms or in jan without symptoms. Don't test and people cant be sick.

Deaths and hospitalizations are doing great in Florida and are an objective measure unaffected by the availability of testing.
2k deaths is great???? um i'm sure my brother will find that comforting.
And of course the spread in florida is slower. We live outside in single family homes. The only places we can get it is in stores and restaurants even the majority of space in theme parks is outdoors which slows the spread The indoor spaces are heavily air conditioned forcing the aerosolized particles down to the ground which slows spread even more. Denying people that work in close quarters in essential jobs is a great way to do business. Two thumbs up for that.

It is comforting statistically. It means the odds of dying from covid19 in Florida are infinitesimal.
In a state with a population of 21,480,000, yeah, it's very good. It actually puts it below the majority of causes of death the CDC tracks for that state.
Florida deaths are at 2145 which puts Florida covid19 deaths at almost exactly 0.0001 of the population.

You'll be happy to know the trend has been downward in Florida for both hospitalizations and deaths since it began reopening. In fact, per ABC news on This Week with George Stephanopoulos this past Sunday, all 21 states that are in reopening stages have not had any spike in deaths or hospitalizations and the majority have shown declines since opening.
In the last 5 days of the lockdown there were less than 3k new cases in florida. In the last 5 days there were 6.5k new cases in florida. That is a decline in the number of reported cases??!?!??! :icon_think:  :icon_think:.

From 4/26-5/1 there were 9.8k deaths in the usa. from 5/16-5/21 there were over 12.2k deaths in the usa. That is a decline in death rate?

Reread. Nowhere did I mention cases. I cited "hospitalizations" and "deaths". Of course cases will increase as testing in virtually every state has been steadily increasing.

As to the decline in death rates, I said the majority of the 21 states that have been reopening have had declines in death rates per ABC News. I didn't say anything about the broader US. Several of the closed states are doing far worse in death rates & related than the reopening ones I referred to. 
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idontknowyet

Deaths lag behind new cases 1 to 2 weeks so if we follow the us average 6% of those new cases will be deaths.  We flattened the curve. It took months to get as high as it was. It wont return to that spot over night. Hence the second wave hitting in the fall and the third in winter. It's not because things are getting better. It's because this virus spreads easily but slowly.

There are some still locked down doing worse, but the big one is doing much better ny. On 5/1 ny accounted for 28% of the countries cases and 32% of the deaths. Now it accounts for 8.4% of the new cases and 11.7% of the deaths.

Those deaths are not staying in the locked down states only but spreading across the country.

Playing word games to paint a rosey picture of the world helps no one. Counties in my state has zero cases during lockdown. Now we are seeing a handful of cases here and there. Do you think this thing is going to just go away because we unlocked?
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 09:16:34 AM by idontknowyet »
 
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Luke Everhart

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Deaths lag behind new cases 1 to 2 weeks so if we follow the us average 6% of those new cases will be deaths.  We flattened the curve. It took months to get as high as it was. It wont return to that spot over night.

There are some still locked down doing worse but the big one ny which made up a fair % of cases and death is waaaay down.

But hospitalizations are an interim indicator and those are also declining.

Per the NYT May 9, 2020 more than 1/3rd of all covid19 deaths in the US have been in nursing homes. This dramatically inflated the cases to death percentage.
With additional attention being paid to those facilities and restrictions on visitations still in place in the reopening states, the death rates relative to infections will be more consistent with the general population numbers which are a small fraction of 1% (as low as 0.08 to 0.14 if the antibody tests are accurate). So the curve will remain well flattened... pancaked really, at least in those states maintaining attention to safety measures on nursing homes and similar.

(Conversely, Gov Cuomo actually sent recovering covid19 patients to nursing homes as a matter of policy in New York (google for landslide of media reports). Notably, New York is almost a 1/3rd of the US's covid19 deaths.)

In Texas, a state with 50% more people than New York State and only 5% of the number of deaths, the total number of cases has been steadily rising due to increased testing; however, all the key indices have been steady or declining.
The percentage of those tested that test positive has dropped from 10% to under 3%. The statewide percentage of covid19 patients hospitalized in Texas is now 2.4% of capacity per Gov Abbott's press briefing. Deaths are still accruing, as they will, but the rate peaked late April and has been declining since April 27 to present.

Florida is doing similarly (actually a bit better in trends).

And, actually, most states never really had a major problem. 32 states still have under 900 deaths. 11 have under 100. Of course those should be opening up.

A small minority of states have hugely disproportionate numbers despite most of those states being among the states with the earliest and most comprehensive lockdown measures. 🤔
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are but 21.4% of the US population. Those 6 states have 63% of all covid19 deaths in the nation.
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idontknowyet

Deaths lag behind new cases 1 to 2 weeks so if we follow the us average 6% of those new cases will be deaths.  We flattened the curve. It took months to get as high as it was. It wont return to that spot over night.

There are some still locked down doing worse but the big one ny which made up a fair % of cases and death is waaaay down.

But hospitalizations are an interim indicator and those are also declining.

Per the NYT May 9, 2020 more than 1/3rd of all covid19 deaths in the US have been in nursing homes. This dramatically inflated the cases to death percentage.
With additional attention being paid to those facilities and restrictions on visitations still in place in the reopening states, the death rates relative to infections will be more consistent with the general population numbers which are a small fraction of 1% (as low as 0.08 to 0.14 if the antibody tests are accurate). So the curve will remain well flattened... pancaked really, at least in those states maintaining attention to safety measures on nursing homes and similar.

(Conversely, Gov Cuomo actually sent recovering covid19 patients to nursing homes as a matter of policy in New York (google for landslide of media reports). Notably, New York is almost a 1/3rd of the US's covid19 deaths.)

In Texas, a state with 50% more people than New York State and only 5% of the number of deaths, the total number of cases has been steadily rising due to increased testing; however, all the key indices have been steady or declining.
The percentage of those tested that test positive has dropped from 10% to under 3%. The statewide percentage of covid19 patients hospitalized in Texas is now 2.4% of capacity per Gov Abbott's press briefing. Deaths are still accruing, as they will, but the rate peaked late April and has been declining since April 27 to present.

Florida is doing similarly (actually a bit better in trends).

And, actually, most states never really had a major problem. 32 states still have under 900 deaths. 11 have under 100. Of course those should be opening up.

A small minority of states have hugely disproportionate numbers despite most of those states being among the states with the earliest and most comprehensive lockdown measures. 🤔
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are but 21.4% of the US population. Those 6 states have 63% of all covid19 deaths in the nation.
If more cases is a good trend then we are excelling.

Do people in nursing homes that die not count? Yes this has a higher mortality rate in old people, but that doesn't mean it ONLY kills old people.

Comparing NY with a super dense population to Wyoming Texas or any rural state is ludicrous. Spread is slower in less dense populations that's a fact. That doesn't mean it stops spreading. Just takes longer.

Is your goal to wait until we have a large problem to do something. Oh don't worry a million people haven't died yet its not an issue. Go have fun at the bar. Its all good only 2k people died... We'll stop when 10k people a week are dying in the state.  Is life that meaningless to you?



« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:26:44 AM by idontknowyet »
 
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Luke Everhart

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But hospitalizations are an interim indicator and those are also declining.

Per the NYT May 9, 2020 more than 1/3rd of all covid19 deaths in the US have been in nursing homes. This dramatically inflated the cases to death percentage.
With additional attention being paid to those facilities and restrictions on visitations still in place in the reopening states, the death rates relative to infections will be more consistent with the general population numbers which are a small fraction of 1% (as low as 0.08 to 0.14 if the antibody tests are accurate). So the curve will remain well flattened... pancaked really, at least in those states maintaining attention to safety measures on nursing homes and similar.

(Conversely, Gov Cuomo actually sent recovering covid19 patients to nursing homes as a matter of policy in New York (google for landslide of media reports). Notably, New York is almost a 1/3rd of the US's covid19 deaths.)

In Texas, a state with 50% more people than New York State and only 5% of the number of deaths, the total number of cases has been steadily rising due to increased testing; however, all the key indices have been steady or declining.
The percentage of those tested that test positive has dropped from 10% to under 3%. The statewide percentage of covid19 patients hospitalized in Texas is now 2.4% of capacity per Gov Abbott's press briefing. Deaths are still accruing, as they will, but the rate peaked late April and has been declining since April 27 to present.

Florida is doing similarly (actually a bit better in trends).

And, actually, most states never really had a major problem. 32 states still have under 900 deaths. 11 have under 100. Of course those should be opening up.

A small minority of states have hugely disproportionate numbers despite most of those states being among the states with the earliest and most comprehensive lockdown measures. 🤔
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are but 21.4% of the US population. Those 6 states have 63% of all covid19 deaths in the nation.
If more cases is a good trend then we are excelling.

Do people in nursing homes that die not count? Yes this has a higher mortality rate in old people, but that doesn't mean it ONLY kills old people.

Comparing NY with a super dense population to Wyoming Texas or any rural state is ludicrous. Spread is slower in less dense populations that's a fact. That doesn't mean it stops spreading. Just takes longer.

Is your goal to wait until we have a large problem to do something. Oh don't worry a million people haven't died yet its not an issue. Go have fun at the bar. Its all good only 2k people died... We'll stop when 10k people a week are dying in the state.  Is life that meaningless to you?

Guess you've never been to Texas? The Dallas/Fort Worth metro area has 7.2 million people. The Houston metro area has 7 million. Traffic is so bad that Hell rejected it as a form of punishment on the grounds of being too cruel.

How the deuce is identifying nursing homes as the biggest locus of deaths, and suggesting that measures specific to protecting that population will dramatically reduce the fatality numbers that are so heavily misrepresentative for the general public, imply that the lives of those in nursing homes don't matter?
That's quite a pretzel of ratiocination.
(apropos: News reporting that 2/3rds of covid19 deaths in Pennsylvania were in nursing homes)

We have a large problem now. 36 million unemployed and a rate of increase that will push us past the peak 24.9% Great Depression unemployment numbers if we stayed open another month. That's not extra lattes and a manicure. That's existential.
I'm not trivializing the 2000, or any number for that matter. But we can't measure policy against utopia. We routinely accept the calculus of risk-v-reward when we drive. An average of 1.35 million people a year die in traffic accidents per WHO (38,000 to 46,000 per year in the US). We aren't trivializing life and saying it's "meaningless" or that it's "all good" that only X many die each year every time we buy a new car or step on the gas.
We're living in an imperfect world where we routinely trade against uncertainty. I see a prolonged shutdown in a state with just over 2000 deaths (as in Florida) or just under 1500 (as in Texas) weighed against the devastation of the lives of millions, and the inevitable loss of many lives among them from privation or despair, as a rational calculus when it comes to both policy and perspective. Particularly because we all possess agency to take measures to protect ourselves even in a fully operational state and economy. (Admit it, many of you thought "death star" as soon as you read the words "fully operational" 🤣)

Personal empathy (which I'm brimming with) is a beautiful and essential part of life and being human. Macro policy dictated by it without guidance from dispassionate analysis and perspective would inevitably lead to a dystopian nightmare.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 11:41:53 AM by Luke Everhart »
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idontknowyet

But hospitalizations are an interim indicator and those are also declining.

Per the NYT May 9, 2020 more than 1/3rd of all covid19 deaths in the US have been in nursing homes. This dramatically inflated the cases to death percentage.
With additional attention being paid to those facilities and restrictions on visitations still in place in the reopening states, the death rates relative to infections will be more consistent with the general population numbers which are a small fraction of 1% (as low as 0.08 to 0.14 if the antibody tests are accurate). So the curve will remain well flattened... pancaked really, at least in those states maintaining attention to safety measures on nursing homes and similar.

(Conversely, Gov Cuomo actually sent recovering covid19 patients to nursing homes as a matter of policy in New York (google for landslide of media reports). Notably, New York is almost a 1/3rd of the US's covid19 deaths.)

In Texas, a state with 50% more people than New York State and only 5% of the number of deaths, the total number of cases has been steadily rising due to increased testing; however, all the key indices have been steady or declining.
The percentage of those tested that test positive has dropped from 10% to under 3%. The statewide percentage of covid19 patients hospitalized in Texas is now 2.4% of capacity per Gov Abbott's press briefing. Deaths are still accruing, as they will, but the rate peaked late April and has been declining since April 27 to present.

Florida is doing similarly (actually a bit better in trends).

And, actually, most states never really had a major problem. 32 states still have under 900 deaths. 11 have under 100. Of course those should be opening up.

A small minority of states have hugely disproportionate numbers despite most of those states being among the states with the earliest and most comprehensive lockdown measures. 🤔
New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Illinois are but 21.4% of the US population. Those 6 states have 63% of all covid19 deaths in the nation.
If more cases is a good trend then we are excelling.

Do people in nursing homes that die not count? Yes this has a higher mortality rate in old people, but that doesn't mean it ONLY kills old people.

Comparing NY with a super dense population to Wyoming Texas or any rural state is ludicrous. Spread is slower in less dense populations that's a fact. That doesn't mean it stops spreading. Just takes longer.

Is your goal to wait until we have a large problem to do something. Oh don't worry a million people haven't died yet its not an issue. Go have fun at the bar. Its all good only 2k people died... We'll stop when 10k people a week are dying in the state.  Is life that meaningless to you?

Guess you've never been to Texas? The Dallas/Fort Worth metro area has 7.2 million people. The Houston metro area has 7 million. Traffic is so bad that Hell rejected it as a form of punishment on the grounds of being too cruel.

How the deuce is identifying nursing homes as the biggest locus of deaths, and suggesting that measures specific to protecting that population will dramatically reduce the fatality numbers that are so heavily misrepresentative for the general public, imply that the lives of those in nursing homes don't matter?
That's quite a pretzel of ratiocination.
(apropos: News reporting that 2/3rds of covid19 deaths in Pennsylvania were in nursing homes)

We have a large problem now. 36 million unemployed and a rate of increase that will push us past the peak 24.9% Great Depression unemployment numbers if we stayed open another month. That's not extra lattes and a manicure. That's existential.
I'm not trivializing the 2000, or any number for that matter. But we can't measure policy against utopia. We routinely accept the calculus of risk-v-reward when we drive. An average of 1.35 million people a year die in traffic accidents per WHO (38,000 to 46,000 per year in the US). We aren't trivializing life and saying it's "meaningless" or that it's "all good" that only X many die each year every time we buy a new car or step on the gas.
We're living in an imperfect world where we routinely trade against uncertainty. I see a prolonged shutdown in a state with just over 2000 deaths (as in Florida) or just under 1500 (as in Texas) weighed against the devastation of the lives of millions, and the inevitable loss of many lives among them from privation or despair, as a rational calculus when it comes to both policy and perspective. Particularly because we all possess agency to take measures to protect ourselves even in a fully operational state and economy. (Admit it, many of you thought "death star" as soon as you read the words "fully operational" 🤣)

Personal empathy (which I'm brimming with) is a beautiful and essential part of life and being human. Macro policy dictated by it without guidance from dispassionate analysis and perspective would inevitably lead to a dystopian nightmare.
I m not against opening up as a gradual thing and slowly watching the numbers, because the growth of this is logarithmic. That being said seeing nurses drinking in a packed bar then going to work in a nursing home shows me that people aren't always capable of making logical choices.

Also saying a state is doing great when 2k people have died from a disease is trivializing their deaths. None of this is great.
Not making sure that essential workers have the tests and ppe they need is not great.
That's where florida is at the moment.
Telling people to open up because we don't want the economy to get worse hardly compares to their loved ones dying. Finding safe ways to open up is good. Actually doing contact tracing would be nice too. Florida isn't doing much of that. We are closing our eyes and hoping it gets better or we find a treatment/vaccine before it gets bad. That's just plain stupid. 
 
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notthatamanda


I m not against opening up as a gradual thing and slowly watching the numbers, because the growth of this is logarithmic. That being said seeing nurses drinking in a packed bar then going to work in a nursing home shows me that people aren't always capable of making logical choices.

Also saying a state is doing great when 2k people have died from a disease is trivializing their deaths. None of this is great.
Not making sure that essential workers have the tests and ppe they need is not great.
That's where florida is at the moment.
Telling people to open up because we don't want the economy to get worse hardly compares to their loved ones dying. Finding safe ways to open up is good. Actually doing contact tracing would be nice too. Florida isn't doing much of that. We are closing our eyes and hoping it gets better or we find a treatment/vaccine before it gets bad. That's just plain stupid.
Everything I read seems to predict June is going to be....interesting. My state (Massachusetts) has a four phase plan but they refused to even speculate on the date for Phase 2 reopening. That will depend on the data and how things are trending. For us, we are going to listen to the doctors. There is no treatment. They will throw what ever they have at you to try to mitigate the damage from the virus and your immune system battling it out. We managed the (first) surge here okay in terms of hospital capacity. And a lot of people died. Safer at home is our personal game plan.
 
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LilyBLily

Although it's theoretically tempting to don a mask and go shopping, in reality the smartest thing I can do is the same today as on March 10th: Stay home and stay safe.

Since I apparently have found a source of paper goods at last (the local grocery doesn't even have a category for online ordering of toilet paper), I'm set for months to come via the online ordering and curbside pickup system plus occasional home deliveries of non-food items.

Eventually, our property might protest all the efforts I'm making at rooting out non-native invasive plants, but for now it can still absorb plenty of my attention, so that takes care of the fresh air and sunshine needs.

Luckily I have no interest in going to bars and no pressing interest in going to restaurants. On the flip side, all the opera houses in the world are shut right now; given their financial fragility in the U.S., we are concerned that, as in 2008-2009, some will never reopen. (In Europe, they receive large amounts of government funding--and no backbiting about what content the houses choose to perform, either. It can be hair-raising.) 

Sure, I'd like a haircut, but, no, I don't want to die this year.
 
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PJ Post

I wish these protesters that are so up in arms about 'our' freedom and 'our' civil liberties cared half as much about the systemic racism, income inequality, crumbling infrastructure, crap schools, rampant voter disenfranchisement, lack of healthcare and the grossly unfair access to opportunity that plagues this country.

The current pandemic has severely exposed America's weaknesses. Maybe we should think about fixing some stuff, like making universal healthcare a Right? You know, humans should have the Right not to die because they're too poor to afford the medicine that will save them – in other words, the repeal of Social Darwinism. Doesn’t it seem like that should be an easy one?


 :shrug
 
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From ABC News:
---
"WALNUT CREEK, Calif. (KGO) -- Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus.

The head of the trauma in the department believes mental health is suffering so much, it is time to end the shelter-in-place order.

"Personally I think it's time," said Dr. Mike deBoisblanc. "I think, originally, this (the shelter-in-place order) was put in place to flatten the curve and to make sure hospitals have the resources to take care of COVID patients.We have the current resources to do that and our other community health is suffering."

The numbers are unprecedented, he said.

"We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.""
---

Report link:
https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/
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TimothyEllis

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"We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.""

I've been wondering about that.
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Hopscotch

I wish these protesters that are so up in arms about 'our' freedom and 'our' civil liberties cared half as much about the systemic racism, income inequality, crumbling infrastructure, crap schools, rampant voter disenfranchisement, lack of healthcare and the grossly unfair access to opportunity that plagues this country.

The great Fats Waller used to say "Folks is folks" and I always liked the upbeat sound of that.  But it has a flipside - Morons is morons.

Or, more politely, from the conservative David Brooks in the 5-21 New York Times:  “Aside from a few protesters and a depraved president, most of us have understood we need to suspend the old individualistic American creed. In the midst of a complex epidemiological disaster, to be anti-authority is to be ignorant. In the midst of a contagion, to act as if you are self-sufficient is just selfish.”
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 03:23:15 AM by Hopscotch »
 

PJ Post

"We've never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time," he said. "I mean we've seen a year's worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.""

Why should we assume that the increase in suicides is correlated with the shutdown as opposed to the pandemic in general? This is disingenuous click-bait reporting at its worst. Suicide stems most often from mental illness, which is exacerbated by uncertainty and a lack of related care. The care has remained available throughout the shutdown. The wild card here is the pandemic and the uncertainty, not Netflix. In time, we'll have a better idea of the underlying causes that might explain what's going on, but the reality is that there hasn't been the time necessary for such a study to be conducted, much less enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from it.

And this is why the Hospital threw out that massive disclaimer distancing themselves from the report.
 
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Why should we assume that the increase in suicides is correlated with the shutdown as opposed to the pandemic in general? This is disingenuous click-bait reporting at its worst. Suicide stems most often from mental illness, which is exacerbated by uncertainty and a lack of related care. The care has remained available throughout the shutdown.

No, I don't agree.

A high proportion of doctor visits here are now on the phone. Doctors have distanced themselves. Patients have distanced themselves.

Those needing mental help cant go somewhere to get it now, and while phone support is something, it probably isn't enough. I'd like to see stats on calls to Lifeline and other suicide help lines.

The thing is though, a lot of people who've had their entire world crash down around them won't be people with 'mental illness', but people unable to cope with no job, no income, no support, no help, and who simply lose the will to live, and commit suicide. People losing their businesses are one group likely to go suicidal. Ever lost a business you loved? I have. It is a reason to consider suicide.

You can't paper this over. There will be millions of people whose lives have been torn up, and who can't cope. Many of them have never shown any signs of 'mental illness', but whatever is going on for them now is just too much to cope with.
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PJ Post

No, I don't agree.

I hear what you're saying, but, from the net...

Quote
Over 90 percent of people who die by suicide have a mental illness at the time of their death. And the most common mental illness is depression. Untreated depression is the number one cause for suicide.

Uncertainty, real or imagined, is a major driver of anxiety, which in turn, affects depression.

In America, where the report was filed, the shutdown did not close hospitals or urgent care facilities, however, the pandemic did make going to these places scary, and therefore, uncertain. While I'm sure that some of these tragedies are related to forgoing care, I doubt that many are a direct result of the shutdown policy itself.

Again, in time we'll have a better idea, and he may be right, but for now, this Doctor is offering nothing more than conjecture, which is why the Hospital put out the disclaimer.

Using an increase in regional suicide rates, totally without context, as a reason to reopen the economy is as irrational as it is illogical. If we were seeing a persistent pattern on a global scale, then the conversation might be different.
 
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No, I don't agree.

In America, where the report was filed, the shutdown did not close hospitals or urgent care facilities,

Not shutdown but the majority of states restricted hospitals to emergency and covid care. Thousands of hospital staff have been furloughed around the country because of those restrictions.

Most relevantly to this topic, almost every lockdown state limited psychology/psychiatrist sessions to video or phone during lockdown. Some went further, like several New York city hospitals converting psychiatric wards to covid19 bed facilities.

The example in California of the degree of restrictions and resulting furloughs detailed in this LATimes article is representative of the country at large.
From the piece:
"In California, thousands of nurses, doctors and other medical staff have been laid off or furloughed or have taken a pay cut since mid-March. The pain has been felt broadly, from major facilities such as Stanford Health Care to tiny rural hospitals to private practitioners. Across the nation, job losses in the healthcare sector have been second only to those in the restaurant industry, according to federal labor statistics.
Hospitals and doctors’ offices lost billions in revenue when they canceled elective surgeries and non-emergent visits to prepare for a possible surge in COVID-19 patients and to reduce the spread of the virus."

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-05-02/coronavirus-california-healthcare-workers-layoffs-furloughs
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 04:22:31 AM by Luke Everhart »
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notthatamanda

So I heard some psychiatrists talking about this on the radio a couple of weeks ago. The problem may be people are experiencing their first depressive episode ever and have no way of knowing that that is what even is happening to them. As someone who has battled depression for forty years, I know what the signs are, I know what I need to do, I know that it's worth the effort to turn it around. Someone who has never felt this before, who doesn't have the tools, big trouble. But I don't think you can pinpoint whether the pandemic or the lockdown is the blame and it may differ from case to case.

I wonder if they were sending suicide attempts to Walnut Creek because some of the hospitals in the Bay area were designated for COVID only. Just a guess.
 
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PJ Post

So I heard some psychiatrists talking about this on the radio a couple of weeks ago. The problem may be people are experiencing their first depressive episode ever and have no way of knowing that that is what even is happening to them. As someone who has battled depression for forty years, I know what the signs are, I know what I need to do, I know that it's worth the effort to turn it around. Someone who has never felt this before, who doesn't have the tools, big trouble. But I don't think you can pinpoint whether the pandemic or the lockdown is the blame and it may differ from case to case.

I wonder if they were sending suicide attempts to Walnut Creek because some of the hospitals in the Bay area were designated for COVID only. Just a guess.

This.

Context continues to matter.


No, I don't agree.

In America, where the report was filed, the shutdown did not close hospitals or urgent care facilities,

Not shutdown but the majority of states restricted hospitals to emergency and covid care. Thousands of hospital staff have been furloughed around the country because of those restrictions...

So circumstantial, topic-adjacent anecdotes aside, you agree: the shutdown, as a discrete cause, is not necessarily responsible for the increase in suicides as the report suggests, (which is why the Hospital put out the disclaimer they did).

Apart from changes in operational practices, it's important to note that critical care is, and has been, available for those that need it, including mental wellness. We had a few posts here last week discussing how hospitals were reaching out to make sure people didn't ignore serious health concerns for fear of the virus.

If you need help - please, get it.
 
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notthatamanda

Oh the psychiatrist I heard on the radio said that they and their colleagues were surprised by how many people were okay with doing a virtual therapy session for the first session. They said some people may have found it even easier than going to the office. Their concern was people who were like, of course I'm sad and irritable, look at the state of the world. People who weren't even realizing they were depressed.

Take COVID out of it. If you lose someone, you will be sad, you will grieve, you may even say you are depressed. That is normal, part of the grief process. Clinical depression is a medical problem. Some people slide from a tough time into clinical depression. Some people don't. And if you have never been there before, it is really hard to know that you need help.

We could probably use some PSA about this to make people more aware.
 
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LilyBLily

All the therapy in the world can’t stop grieving from it’s natural course, and in our country alone nearly 100,000 deaths have happened recently, which quite obviously leaves a similar or exponential number of grieving survivors. Add to that job loss, economic loss, social isolation, and the inability to keep up image (no hair or nail care or other items) and being unable to engage in usual pursuits and it’s a wonder more people haven’t lost it completely.

I did a phone therapy session last week myself.
 

notthatamanda

All the therapy in the world can’t stop grieving from it’s natural course, and in our country alone nearly 100,000 deaths have happened recently, which quite obviously leaves a similar or exponential number of grieving survivors. Add to that job loss, economic loss, social isolation, and the inability to keep up image (no hair or nail care or other items) and being unable to engage in usual pursuits and it’s a wonder more people haven’t lost it completely.

I did a phone therapy session last week myself.
I guess I didn't say it well. Grieving is natural. Didn't mean to imply otherwise.

I can't imagine losing someone at this time and not being able to have a proper funeral and community support in the form of visits, food donations etc. Then we have those people who had the floods in Michigan and we have displaced people in our town from what ever it was that tore through here a week ago. One of my kid's classmates had a tree crash through their house and they had to find emergency housing.
« Last Edit: May 23, 2020, 08:54:00 AM by notthatamanda »
 

LilyBLily

I have more than a passing knowledge of depression and I'm not knocking that, either. Just pointing out that people have many legitimate reasons to feel miserable right now.

 

 

elleoco

I admit that except when people have a terminal, no hope, unrelenting and unbearable pain illness, I've never been able to understand suicide. At a guess it comes from a cautious nature. Unless I could hear from people who had died and knew what was on the other side, how can I trust being dead isn't just as bad? Or worse? Maybe there is a hell. For that matter the common ideas about heaven have never sounded very attractive to me. Or what if reincarnation theory is right, and I would come back somewhere where women aren't allowed to sneeze without permission? Or a gay person where they live in fear until found out and then are tortured to death? Or maybe I'd only deserve to be an animal in a medical lab and tortured in experiments throughout another life. Or a c0ckroach.

So, nope, not for me. However, for years I've said my wish is to live to 103 so long as it can be aware and on my feet. That comes from seeing a news bit some time ago about a 103-woman who still went in to a second-hand clothing store where she'd volunteered for years 2 or 3 days a week. Before that I'd never seen anyone 100 or over who wasn't in a wheelchair and looking - less than aware.

103 would be another 29 years for me.

However, I caught myself a few weeks back thinking, "If life is going to be like this from now on, maybe I don't want to make it that long after all." I know I can't achieve a desired lifespan by deciding on it, but wishing for 103 has pretty much reflected my feelings about life to date. So lockdown, and I'm not out of work or in danger of losing a business or home. I'm not a social animal to start with and can't be said to miss all sorts of activities and outings. It's the fact I can't do those few things I do want to do, the knowing the choice isn't mine, the lack of control. If it's going to last, the future looks a whole lot less desirable.

I'm also one of those people who made it through all the previous "pandemics" mentioned in news articles without even noticing. I've never had a flu shot and never much worried about it. I kind of remember articles about another nasty flu from China during the last administration, but I skipped over those articles. Yawn. No way to do that this time, so now every time I go to the grocery store I come home and start coughing and feeling funny. That lasts for a few hours until something distracts me, I forget about it, and the psychosomatic symptoms disappear. I know it's all in my mind even as I'm doing it, and it still happens.

I can see the current situation pushing some people where they wouldn't otherwise go.

idontknowyet

I admit that except when people have a terminal, no hope, unrelenting and unbearable pain illness, I've never been able to understand suicide. At a guess it comes from a cautious nature. Unless I could hear from people who had died and knew what was on the other side, how can I trust being dead isn't just as bad? Or worse? Maybe there is a hell. For that matter the common ideas about heaven have never sounded very attractive to me. Or what if reincarnation theory is right, and I would come back somewhere where women aren't allowed to sneeze without permission? Or a gay person where they live in fear until found out and then are tortured to death? Or maybe I'd only deserve to be an animal in a medical lab and tortured in experiments throughout another life. Or a c0ckroach.

So, nope, not for me. However, for years I've said my wish is to live to 103 so long as it can be aware and on my feet. That comes from seeing a news bit some time ago about a 103-woman who still went in to a second-hand clothing store where she'd volunteered for years 2 or 3 days a week. Before that I'd never seen anyone 100 or over who wasn't in a wheelchair and looking - less than aware.

103 would be another 29 years for me.

However, I caught myself a few weeks back thinking, "If life is going to be like this from now on, maybe I don't want to make it that long after all." I know I can't achieve a desired lifespan by deciding on it, but wishing for 103 has pretty much reflected my feelings about life to date. So lockdown, and I'm not out of work or in danger of losing a business or home. I'm not a social animal to start with and can't be said to miss all sorts of activities and outings. It's the fact I can't do those few things I do want to do, the knowing the choice isn't mine, the lack of control. If it's going to last, the future looks a whole lot less desirable.

I'm also one of those people who made it through all the previous "pandemics" mentioned in news articles without even noticing. I've never had a flu shot and never much worried about it. I kind of remember articles about another nasty flu from China during the last administration, but I skipped over those articles. Yawn. No way to do that this time, so now every time I go to the grocery store I come home and start coughing and feeling funny. That lasts for a few hours until something distracts me, I forget about it, and the psychosomatic symptoms disappear. I know it's all in my mind even as I'm doing it, and it still happens.

I can see the current situation pushing some people where they wouldn't otherwise go.
I listened to a person talk that survived a suicide attempt. His was related to drug addiction. Where the mind goes gave me chills. I cant even begin to explain it, but his pain was raw and this happened decades ago.
 
 

notthatamanda

I have more than a passing knowledge of depression and I'm not knocking that, either. Just pointing out that people have many legitimate reasons to feel miserable right now.

 
Well you are very right about that.
 

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From the Washington Post on surviving the pandemic.

"We have to reopen — for our health"
by the US secretary of Health & Human Services

Some arbitrary excerpts (link for full piece below):
"Estimates suggest that each one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate translates into a 1 percent increase in suicide deaths and a more than 3 percent increase in opioid deaths, which means this virus-induced recession will likely cause tens of thousands of excess deaths."
"More than 1.7 million new cancer cases are diagnosed per year in the United States. If we’re seeing an 80 percent drop in cancer cases identified, approximately, we could already have 200,000 or more undiagnosed cancer cases as a result.
According to Medicare data, breast cancer surgeries are down approximately two-thirds since January. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report found that vaccine administrations were down approximately 60 percent from early January to mid-March; that puts millions of American infants and children at risk for serious illnesses."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/reopening-isnt-a-question-of-health-vs-economy-when-a-bad-economy-kills-too/2020/05/21/c126deb6-9b7d-11ea-ad09-8da7ec214672_story.html
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LilyBLily

I have a close relative with serious eye problems who has promised to kill himself were he to go blind. I believe him, because for him life would no longer be worth living. But that's really an end-of-life kind of choice, different from suicide in the prime of life or suicide when one is suffering a long-term, unremitting clinical depression.

There's a handy checklist of suicidal ideations I'm sure can be found online. At times I've tested positive for more than a few of them. Not the "hearing voices" question, though.

My family genetics give me a good shot at hitting my 90s, but unfortunately they also strongly indicate I'll be gaga by then. That's a big psychological burden to carry around when contemplating the future. Add to that various other forms of ill health, and many of us who are older had a "okay, whatever" attitude when this virus started coming around. It would be a quick and relatively inexpensive death, which some of us look upon with favor. However, the idea of having a stroke instead and then still alive but unable to do anything is good enough reason to stay home and stay safe. And losing a limb to amputation? A nightmare to contemplate. More reason to stay home.



« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 02:13:21 AM by LilyBLily »
 

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OMG (as my students used to say), we need to stop

*Comparing apples to oranges. For example, it's already been pointed out multiple times that, although Texas has large cities, its urban areas are by no means as densely populated as those in the hard-hit states, especially New York and the New York City Metropolitan area (which extends into New Jersey). There are numerous lifestyle and climate differences that have been discussed ad nauseum. And yet, we're still getting these faulty comparisons.

*Drawing conclusion from partial data. For example, the inference that, because the hardest hit states locked down earlier, lockdowns are ineffective, doesn't hold up. Typically, the states that locked down early did so because they already had rapidly rising infection rates. California is an exception in that it locked down more protactively--and it has a relatively low infection rate compared to comparably large and urbanized states. States that locked down later or not at all tend to be less populated and less urbanized (or at least, less densely urbanized). (Yes, Wyoming and New York are not all that similar.) Another example: citing national excess death rates when the state ones are far more relevant. True, death rate is somewhat down in the US right now, but it's considerably up in New York and some other highly affected states.

*Isolated examples. Even a single example does provide some evidence, but it's also fair to ask how representative of the whole that particular example is. Walnut Creek is not a microcosm of the nation.

*Use of one small part of a policy to try to discredit the whole policy. Yes, some aspects of the shutdown could have been handled better. That doesn't indict the concept of shutdowns as a whole.

I'd also like to address the suicide point. Obviously, that's an important issue that should not be ignored. However, we also need to keep the context in mind.

Economic downturns do produce suicides. However, a pandemic shutdown is not like a normal recession (as both the president and the treasury secretary have pointed out). Normal recessions have no obvious ending. Being unemployed as a result of a recession is likely to be more depression-provoking than being unemployed as a result of a temporary shutdown with longer-lasting and fuller employment benefits than normal. (Remember the Republican complaints that the terms were too generous.) Sure, people at higher salary levels don't get their whole salary, but the question is whether or not they get enough to tide them over for a few weeks. The answer should be yes--unless they're spending everything they make--not a wise practice--or our previous "prosperity" wasn't all it was cracked up to be. There's also more aid to businesses than normal in a recession, and there may be more in the pipeline.

As others have pointed out, there are other reasons to be depressed than the economic effects of the pandemic. With most states now in some phase of reopening, it's clear those effects are more short-term than the typical recession. But questions about the long-term impact of the coronavirus, particularly aftereffects that are just beginning to be studied? Now that's something that could considerably effect the lives of many people down the road. These uncertainties could easily be a source of depression, as could deaths in the family, the current partisan mess that is our political system, and any number of other things. If we really want to minimize suicide, we really need to think about ways in which our society could be business differently.


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Being unemployed as a result of a recession is likely to be more depression-provoking than being unemployed as a result of a temporary shutdown with longer-lasting and fuller employment benefits than normal.

Not necessarily.

A lot of people have no idea if they will have a job or not, because their employer may not survive to unlock. If they don't have a job because their employer went down, then they have the prospect of unemployment with no prospect of getting a job at all.

Especially here, where our government hates the unemployed. When things go back to normal, so will be the reality of not being able to find a job in a system run by people who think you don't have one only because you don't want one.

The prospect of long term unemployment here because your employer didn't make it, is terrifying for some people.
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From the Washington Post on surviving the pandemic.

"We have to reopen — for our health"
by the US secretary of Health & Human Services

Some arbitrary excerpts (link for full piece below):
"Estimates suggest that each one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate translates into a 1 percent increase in suicide deaths and a more than 3 percent increase in opioid deaths, which means this virus-induced recession will likely cause tens of thousands of excess deaths."
"More than 1.7 million new cancer cases are diagnosed per year in the United States. If we’re seeing an 80 percent drop in cancer cases identified, approximately, we could already have 200,000 or more undiagnosed cancer cases as a result.
According to Medicare data, breast cancer surgeries are down approximately two-thirds since January. A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report found that vaccine administrations were down approximately 60 percent from early January to mid-March; that puts millions of American infants and children at risk for serious illnesses."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/reopening-isnt-a-question-of-health-vs-economy-when-a-bad-economy-kills-too/2020/05/21/c126deb6-9b7d-11ea-ad09-8da7ec214672_story.html
I can't read it without subscribing.

That said, I'm pretty sure we've already discussed the drop in various kinds of diagnoses and surgeries. The lockdown hasn't prevented cancer surgeries. It hasn't prevented vaccines administrations, either. These are products of public reluctance to use medical services right now, documented earlier. And the suicide figures, based on data from previous recessions, isn't necessarily applicable to the kind of situation we're in now, which, by its nature, is temporary.

Anyway, we're already reopening, are we not? This seems like an argument more suited to conditions a month ago.

Also, the HHS Secretary, who wrote this opinion piece, is in a department critics say is now being politicized, with some associates of the secretary now saying his own tweets don't even sound like him. So, consider the source... https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/28/hhs-coronavirus-218923


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For example, the inference that, because the hardest hit states locked down earlier, lockdowns are ineffective, doesn't hold up. Typically, the states that locked down early did so because they already had rapidly rising infection rates.

Actually a statistical analysis (JP Morgan iirc) of lockdowns vs case trends showed no consistent correlation on the timing of the lockdowns vs case trends. The timing of lockdowns was at least as much driven by the politics and culture of each state. And the death rates and hospitalizations also showed no consistent correlation with respect to the timing of onset or the strictness of a state's lockdown. Other factors are apparently more regnant in the actual impact within a state.
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Being unemployed as a result of a recession is likely to be more depression-provoking than being unemployed as a result of a temporary shutdown with longer-lasting and fuller employment benefits than normal.

Not necessarily.

A lot of people have no idea if they will have a job or not, because their employer may not survive to unlock. If they don't have a job because their employer went down, then they have the prospect of unemployment with no prospect of getting a job at all.

Especially here, where our government hates the unemployed. When things go back to normal, so will be the reality of not being able to find a job in a system run by people who think you don't have one only because you don't want one.

The prospect of long term unemployment here because your employer didn't make it, is terrifying for some people.
You'd obviously know more about conditions in Australia than I. I was referring the conditions in the US, which are better than normal for the unemployed. It's not ever great to be unemployed obviously, but there is more of a safety net now than usual.

People who become depressed enough to actually commit suicide have to be pretty much bereft of any kind of hope. Our survival instinct is strong. Many, many people contemplate suicide but do not follow through. (I can't quickly find a statistic, probably because a lot of people who have thought about suicide haven't announced it to anyone, but the number of people I know who've considered suicide is far greater than the number of people I've known who've actually committed it.) A partial exception is adolescents, who do sometimes act impulsively over relatively short-term problems.

Yes, if the business goes down, temporary unemployment can become more permanent, but once demand for services reaches prelockdown levels, other companies will arise to fill those needs. They may be large companies rather than small ones, but, as I pointed out earlier in one of the other threads, most small businesses in the US fail within five years, anyway. This is not a phenomenon that started with the coronavirus, at least not for us. Consequently, people are used to having to switch employers.

We focus a lot on government action in these discussions, and indeed, it does play an important role. But consumer confidence also determines how fast a reopening will be effective. Businesses in the US lost income for months after 9/11, even though there was no reason to think there would be more, similar attacks, at least in the short term, and in fact, there weren't. But people didn't immediately resume their normal patterns.


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For example, the inference that, because the hardest hit states locked down earlier, lockdowns are ineffective, doesn't hold up. Typically, the states that locked down early did so because they already had rapidly rising infection rates.

Actually a statistical analysis (JP Morgan iirc) of lockdowns vs case trends showed no consistent correlation on the timing of the lockdowns vs case trends. The timing of lockdowns was at least as much driven by the politics and culture of each state. And the death rates and hospitalizations also showed no consistent correlation with respect to the timing of onset or the strictness of a state's lockdown. Other factors are apparently more regnant in the actual impact within a state.
Source? And what are the other factors?

I'd agree with that, but without knowing what other factors are involved, it's just another case of isolated facts with no context.

My memory could be flawed, but I'm pretty sure that many of the hard-hit states didn't lock down until cases were already on the rise, and many of the states that didn't lock down didn't do so because cases didn't rise that fast. It seems to me as if there is a correlation. But that other factors were involved in general I wouldn't doubt.


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Weekly shopping report:

Senior citizens have become more aware of the 6 am-7 am at-risk hours at my market. I was seventh in line this week instead of second. And I was second to check out instead of first. It still wasn't very crowded, though, and everything was peaceful. Shelves were full, even in areas like meat.

This week, no one completely ignored the direction arrows on the aisles, though I did see one person backing down an aisle (because going around would have just been too hard, I guess). Sigh!



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On a positive note, I don't know where this video came from, but yesterday I saw playback of a video Melania Trump did for students who were out of school (in other words, most of them). It was a nice pep talk, upbeat and nonpartisan. As a former high school teacher, I believe it was well-calculated to appeal to adolescents.


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Being unemployed as a result of a recession is likely to be more depression-provoking than being unemployed as a result of a temporary shutdown with longer-lasting and fuller employment benefits than normal.

Not necessarily.

A lot of people have no idea if they will have a job or not, because their employer may not survive to unlock. If they don't have a job because their employer went down, then they have the prospect of unemployment with no prospect of getting a job at all.

Especially here, where our government hates the unemployed. When things go back to normal, so will be the reality of not being able to find a job in a system run by people who think you don't have one only because you don't want one.

The prospect of long term unemployment here because your employer didn't make it, is terrifying for some people.
You'd obviously know more about conditions in Australia than I. I was referring the conditions in the US, which are better than normal for the unemployed. It's not ever great to be unemployed obviously, but there is more of a safety net now than usual.

People who become depressed enough to actually commit suicide have to be pretty much bereft of any kind of hope. Our survival instinct is strong. Many, many people contemplate suicide but do not follow through. (I can't quickly find a statistic, probably because a lot of people who have thought about suicide haven't announced it to anyone, but the number of people I know who've considered suicide is far greater than the number of people I've known who've actually committed it.) A partial exception is adolescents, who do sometimes act impulsively over relatively short-term problems.

In 2018, per CDC, the suicide rate was 142 per 1 million. It's the 10th leading cause of death overall in the U.S.
The US averages almost 3x as many suicides per year as homicides.
In absolute numbers, suicide is highest among middle-aged men, not adolescents.
In relative numbers, suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death for ages 10-34.
In relative numbers, suicide is the 4th leading cause of death for ages 35-54.

Locally, two small businesses I personally frequented and that had both been in business over 12 years each have permanently gone under. I'll be checking on the status of my fav local, independently-owned coffee shop this weekend. 🤞
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 03:07:34 AM by Luke Everhart »
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For example, the inference that, because the hardest hit states locked down earlier, lockdowns are ineffective, doesn't hold up. Typically, the states that locked down early did so because they already had rapidly rising infection rates.

Actually a statistical analysis (JP Morgan iirc) of lockdowns vs case trends showed no consistent correlation on the timing of the lockdowns vs case trends. The timing of lockdowns was at least as much driven by the politics and culture of each state. And the death rates and hospitalizations also showed no consistent correlation with respect to the timing of onset or the strictness of a state's lockdown. Other factors are apparently more regnant in the actual impact within a state.
Source? And what are the other factors?


It was JP Morgan. It's been widely discussed in the media but you can find it on JP Morgan's site (dont recall if have to have subscription to get their raw studies rather than abstracts (I've got lots of subs)).
One of the summary takes was "infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.
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elleoco

This week, no one completely ignored the direction arrows on the aisles, though I did see one person backing down an aisle (because going around would have just been too hard, I guess). Sigh!

I've done this, and it has nothing to do with what's too hard. It has to do with the fact in this area store employees are in at least half the aisles doing stocking work. That means there's no way to travel those aisles and keep 6' away. If what I want is at the far end of the entry point to an aisle and the stocker is between me and there, I go around to the other end, enter the aisle from the "wrong" end and get what I need without brushing by the stocker. If that's a sin, tough.

elleoco

People who survive at the margins may be able to get by on unemployment. There are articles out how for some people the current generous unemployment is more than they were making. However, for a middle class person, living on unemployment would require a severe curtailing of lifestyle. It wouldn't cover mortgage, car payment, and credit card payments and leave anything for groceries and utilities for most. Which would be depressing.

And what about all those people who never got through to overwhelmed unemployment offices? Or those denied. I read somewhere that one of the defiant barbers had that happen. Applied several times, denied several times. He reopened. Some would sit and get depressed.

Leegreg


It was JP Morgan. It's been widely discussed in the media but you can find it on JP Morgan's site (dont recall if have to have subscription to get their raw studies rather than abstracts (I've got lots of subs)).
One of the summary takes was "infection rates since lockdowns were lifted suggest that the virus ‘likely has its own dynamics’ which are ‘unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures’, a report published by the financial services giant said.

This is not a citation. Saying it’s on a website, especially one with a lot of potential articles, without providing a title, author, or date or any other piece of information useful in identifying the report, is useless. A link would be ideal, but not necessary.

In this case, JP Morgan has many reports on Covid. The information you’ve provided is not enough to identify the specific report you’re “citing” without spending more time than I suspect people are going to. Maybe that’s what you’re after?

I’m not suggesting APA formatting, but at a minimum we should expect enough information from: author, title, date, publication, or link, to find the source effortlessly.