Author Topic: AI book piracy lawsuit payout  (Read 5459 times)

Hopscotch

AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« on: September 07, 2025, 05:52:46 AM »
AI startup Anthropic agrees to pay $1.5bn to settle book piracy lawsuit
Guardian   6 Sept 2025

"Settlement could be pivotal after authors claimed company took pirated copies of their work to train chatbots...The company has agreed to pay authors about $3,000 for each of an estimated 500,000 books covered by the settlement...."

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/sep/05/anthropic-settlement-ai-book-lawsuit?CMP=share_btn_url
 
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Lynn

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2025, 06:45:30 AM »
Oh, that hurts.

I have a beef with the wording in the article, too. "The settlement?s higher award ? approximately $3,000 per work ? probably reflects a smaller pool of affected books, after taking out duplicates and those without copyright."

We have copyright. We just didn't have our books registered. There is a major difference and journalists ought to know the difference.

Well, it was a risk not to register. I guess I'll have to start even though it probably won't ever pay off like it would have in this instance.
Don't rush me.
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2025, 09:06:39 AM »
There is a major difference and journalists ought to know the difference.

:icon_rofl:

Modern "journalists" probably know scant little more than what a Google search or AI-generated response tells them.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Hopscotch

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2025, 10:46:46 AM »
Anthropic's Settlement Shows the U.S. Can't Afford AI Copyright Lawsuits
Lawfare   September 8, 2025

"Copyright plaintiffs are squeezing enormous sums from AI companies. That's bad for the US and great for China. It's time for President Trump to invoke the Defense Production Act and resolve the crisis....The American public will likely have little sympathy for a well endowed AI industry facing the prospect of hiring more lawyers, or even paying something for the works it copied....Changing copyright law requires Congressional action, and asking Congress to act would simply kick off an immense lobbying battle culminating in stalemate. Proposing bills that won't pass is a losing strategy for the Trump administration, which is why it prefers executive orders whenever possible....the president, instead of acting unilaterally, could create an executive branch forum to set an appropriate royalty for training licenses...."

https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/anthropic-s-settlement-shows-the-u.s.-can-t-afford-ai-copyright-lawsuits

A fat payout would be sweet but I don't much like that last sentence, and a "forum" at that.
 

Jeff Tanyard

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2025, 12:12:52 PM »
"Copyright plaintiffs are squeezing enormous sums from AI companies. That's bad for the US and great for China..."


 :icon_rofl:

That's all I need in order to know what kind of person wrote this.  Let's see...


Quote
Stewart A. Baker has a law and consulting practice in Washington. His government service include three and a half years at the Department of Homeland Security as its first Assistant Secretary for Policy as well as a tours of duty as General Counsel of the National Security Agency and as General Counsel of the commission that investigated US intelligence failures in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq.


Yep.  Stereotype confirmed.   :icon_rolleyes:

Was there any concern for American authors in that article?  If there was, I must have missed it due to it being buried under all the boilerplate MIC hand-wringing about the new Yellow Peril.   :HB
v  v  v  v  v    Short Stories    v  v  v  v  v    vv FREE! vv
     
Genres: Science Fiction, Fantasy (some day) | Author Website
 
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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2025, 12:33:26 PM »
Was there any concern for American authors in that article?  If there was, I must have missed it due to it being buried under all the boilerplate MIC hand-wringing about the new Yellow Peril.   :HB

I did not see such concern either.

I am sure the concern is over military-grade AI or other forms of AI relating to industrial uses or such things.  As has been pointed out ad nauseam, AI doesn't need to be able to "write" fiction to do any of those things.  Also, I am pretty sure that China is not looking to corner the AI-written book market.

Also, as has been discussed ad nauseam, if AI companies scanning our books (or artwork) is going to somehow cure cancer, I doubt very many of us have any objections there.  But, if these AI companies are going to scan our books in order to create AI tools that allow the creation of works that compete with ours, that's pretty clear copyright infringement and they should either pay to license our works or pay through the nose for copyright infringement.

And, yeah, I don't want some government department determining the license fee to use my works to train AI.  If companies want or need my work so badly, they can negotiate with me and if they can't agree to an amount I will agree to, they don't get to use my stuff.  The same for other authors and artists and so forth.  Easy peasy.  And, if anyone wants to argue that would be too time-consuming, well, it seems to me that AI companies have AI tools they could use to negotiate with us, no?
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 
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hungryboson

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2025, 11:57:43 PM »
A link to a searchable list of books that are included in the Anthropic settlement:
https://secure.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/lookup

I took it from John Sclazi's blog post: https://whatever.scalzi.com/2025/10/02/authors-time-to-get-that-bag/
 
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LilyBLily

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2025, 03:57:13 AM »
If you find your books, you will need:

1. Names of any published before July 2021--That's the cutoff date for Anthropic taking the info from LibGen's pirate site.
2. ISBNs or ASINs
3. Your copyright registration number, which can be accessed a couple of ways, both on the lawsuit website and directly to the Copyright Office at https://publicrecords.copyright.gov/

If you already sent some info to the lawsuit people but haven't yet filed the official claim, you may notice that not all your books listed as stolen are on their list. In my case, it was just one book, so I added it to the list I submitted. Can't hurt.

 
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alhawke

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2025, 05:26:44 AM »
Three of mine. I'm submitting the form today
 

alhawke

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2025, 05:59:42 AM »
It's 7 million ebooks. There's a lot of authors ripped off. Check their database if you copyright your books. Stealing our works to train machines is not okay in my book. (no pun intended).

https://www.anthropiccopyrightsettlement.com/
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2025, 06:59:16 AM »
It's 7 million ebooks. There's a lot of authors ripped off.

And they are still getting ripped off.  It's an estimated $3,000 per work, but then attorneys' fees other costs will be deducted from that amount before the authors get anything.

Statutory fees for copyright infringement range between $750 and $30,000 per work infringed, plus attorneys' fees.

So, Anthropic is getting off easy and the attorneys will no doubt make out like bandits and authors get screwed again.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Hopscotch

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2025, 02:58:31 AM »
Just one of mine, and oddly that's my least sold book.  But did find many by a dead friend - and he wrote highly technical, jargon-heavy nonfic histories of US military aircraft, making him the go-to guy for USAF designers seeking history of aircraft development.  Wonder what AI made of that?
 

LilyBLily

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2025, 05:55:32 AM »
Yes, a friend's dead mom's nonfiction was stolen, too. Who knows?

I would think that a 10% payout would be nice (although not exciting), but even a 1% payout would still be over $300 to me. Likely? I don't think so. On the other hand, this case has blown up so fast it will be hard to pad the attorneys' fees all the way to 100%.

We once received a class action payment for over $1k--and had to declare it as taxable income, by the way. Most payouts are under $30, and they also are taxable income. I'm sure some people don't declare those random checks for $12 or so, but once it's over $600, the issuing party has to send a 1099, and yeah, it's income tax time. There is an exception, but it has to do with physical injuries, and we certainly haven't been biffed over the head by LibGen or Anthropic. Thank goodness.

Edited to add: Actually, I would be very happy to receive enough of a payout to cover the production costs of my next several books.
 

Hopscotch

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2025, 05:12:43 AM »
The platform exposing exactly how much copyrighted art is used by AI tools
Guardian   18 Oct 2025

"...A key sticking point is the AI giants' closely-guarded models, which underpin their systems and make it difficult to know just how much their tech relies on other creatives' work. One firm, however, claims to be able to shine a light on the issue.  The US tech platform Vermillio tracks use of a client's intellectual property online and claims it is possible to trace, approximately, the percentage to which an AI generated image has drawn on pre-existing copyrighted material....the chief strategy officer at Vermillio?said: 'We can all win if we just take a beat and figure out a way to share and track content. This would incentivise copyright holders to release more data to AI companies and would give AI companies access to more interesting sets of data. Instead of giving all the money to five AI companies, there would be this amazing ecosystem.'..."

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/18/the-platform-exposing-exactly-how-much-copyrighted-art-is-used-by-ai-tools?CMP=share_btn_url

Sounds good but...I'm to feed the AI "ecosystem"?
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2025, 11:52:42 AM »
I have no problem with anyone "incentivizing" copyright holders to license their works to AI companies.  But it needs to be negotiated with each rights holder and the default setting needs to be that a copyrighted work does not get used for AI training unless there is permission from the rights holder to do so.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 
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Hopscotch

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #15 on: October 29, 2025, 02:08:57 AM »
Elon Musk launches encyclopedia 'fact-checked' by AI...
Guardian   28 Oct 2025

"Elon Musk has launched an online encyclopedia named Grokipedia that he said relied on artificial intelligence...though many of its articles say they are based on Wikipedia itself....Calling an AI encyclopedia 'super important for civilization' Musk had been planning the Wikipedia rival for at least a month. Grokipedia does not have human authors...[and] is 'fact-checked' by Grok, Musk's AI chatbot....Some journalists have already accused Grokipedia of pushing inaccurate information, such as claiming that pornography made the Aids epidemic worse...."

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/oct/28/elon-musk-grokipedia?CMP=share_btn_url
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #16 on: October 29, 2025, 04:18:48 AM »
An AI encyclopedia checked by the AI that created it? What could possibly go wrong?

Meanwhile, I notice that the Amazon 14,000 person layoff because of AI, while certainly not the first, is getting a lot of media attention. If this trend continues, particularly in a job market that is not especially robust to begin with, I would expect AI to be a major issue in 2028. And/or people's constant fretting over the AI bubble bursting may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, perhaps in conjunction with a rising anti-AI political climate.


Tickling the imagination one book at a time
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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #17 on: October 29, 2025, 04:53:26 AM »
I wish we/they/someone would come up with a more accurate term than "AI."

When we generally think of AI, we think of examples like HAL, Data, KITT, K-9 or various other characters from scifi with artificial intelligence.  Characters like that are able to think similarly to how people think.  They can reason and be reasoned with.

What is currently labeled as "AI" is nothing like that.  There is no intelligence.  It has no understanding.  You cannot reason with it anymore than you can reason with a Magic 8 Ball.

There are AI researchers that argue that we will never actually achieve actual artificial intelligence using the methods commonly used for developing "AI" tools.  That it will eventually reach a dead end.

A thousand monkeys typing for a thousand years may eventually produce the works of Shakespeare, but they won't have any understanding of the symbols on the page.  And that's pretty much where we are with current "AI."

That's not to say a rogue "AI" couldn't cause havoc.  It's kind of like a bear trap in the woods.  It may trap a bear, but it will also trap anything else that sets it off, whether human or deer or whatever.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Hopscotch

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #18 on: October 29, 2025, 06:17:03 AM »
Ah, Bill's an optimist.  Or maybe just a hopefulist.  But, as the philosopher Carl Hiaasen says, In life, always assume the worst.  That's what I expect.
 

PJ Post

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #19 on: October 29, 2025, 10:46:47 PM »
When this all started, I said AI was inevitable becasue there was just too much money on the table. Nothing has changed.

 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #20 on: October 29, 2025, 11:55:44 PM »
Nothing has changed--except that public awareness is greater.

Politicians can manipulate people on a lot of issues, but they can't change people's perceptions about certain things. If you're paying more at the grocery store, for example, they can't convince you that you're actually paying less. (Not that they don't occasionally try.) And when you're out of a job, they can't convince you that you actually have one.

The last election demonstrates how voters prioritize personal issues over national or global ones. Economic growth was good, especially when compared to other industrialized nations. But the growth was unevenly spread. Drilling down to the county level, areas that voted for Harris were responsible for 65% of the gross domestic product. Areas that voted for Trump were responsible for 35% of it. In other words, people most positively affected by economic growth supported the party in power. People least affected supported the party out of power and could have cared less about the overall stats.

As the detrimental effects of AI on employment become more and more visible--especially for white collar voters who tend to have higher participation rates--politicians will have to pay more attention to AI, like it or not. We can already see this happening in both parties. Continuing increases in unemployment will only make it more intense.

Consider the recent Pew survey, which shows an increase in public unease about AI. https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2025/09/17/how-americans-view-ai-and-its-impact-on-people-and-society/

In 2021, 37% of people were more concerned than excited about AI. In 2025, 50% said more concerned than excited, and only 10% said more excited than concerned. You don't need a political consultant to tell you that's not the way you want to see those numbers trending. And the Pew survey didn't even ask questions related specifically to employment.

There aren't actually too many pro-AI trends in this study. Majorities do see a positive role for AI in
Quote
Forecasting the weather (74%) Searching for financial crimes (70%) Searching for fraud in government benefits claims (70%) Developing new medicines (66%) Identifying suspects in a crime (61%)
In other words, people are willing to let AI do statistical analysis or medical research, but they went thumbs down on other applications.

In general, is AI more risky or more beneficial? 57% said more risky, 25% said more beneficial. 60% want to have more say over how AI is used. Majorities or pluralities say that AI will result in decline of human skills related to thinking creatively, forming relationships, making decisions, and solving problems. Interestingly for us, 76% of Americans say
Quote
it?s extremely or very important to be able to tell if pictures, videos and text were made by AI or people.
So much for the idea that fans don't care. Now, it is true that the question wasn't designed to test reactions to creative products partially produced by AI (which would be most of them.) But it's reasonable to assume that products that are mostly AI would be highly suspect. And it's also easy to see why the industry goes bonkers over potential labeling and disclosure requirements.

All of that said, abstract issues don't move voters as much as concrete ones. So much depends on how AI affects tangible things like the job market. If the job market becomes robust despite AI, then it likely won't be a major issue in 2028. If, as I think more likely, the job market is declining in 2028, and AI is playing a visible role in that, politicians will be running for cover--which means, at the very least, more AI regulation. With anti-AI sentiment in at least some areas far greater than pro-AI sentiment, it's going to be hard for politicians to be pro-AI or even silent.

There are two other jokers in the deck--whether or not the AI bubble bursts, and how many times AI screws up publicly. In the former case, the amount of money on the table in going to shrink. AI stock is wildly overvalued based on what AI can do now. If it doesn't realize its potential fast enough, the bubble will burst. In the latter case, despite the earlier snafus in the legal profession, we now have a huge public disclosure of clerks using unchecked AI output to provide precedents for judges to use in rulings. New regulations are now being put in place for that kind of issue. Each disclosure like that fans anti-AI sentiment, even though human error is obviously involved.

I think some kind of process of reigning AI in a bit is more probable than not. And as for money on the table, it's not going to matter if voters get mad enough to flip the table over.

But of course, even the 2026 election is over a year away, let alone the 2028. Lots can happen. Consider all the people who polls said were overwhelming favorites for nomination and good bets for election who didn't end up in the White House: Howard Dean (D-2004), Rudy Giuliani (R-2008), Hillary Clinton (D-2008, 2016), Jeb Bush (R-2016). Three out of four didn't even end up close to nominated, let alone elected. There are other examples. The only sure thing in politics is that there is no sure thing.   


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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #21 on: October 30, 2025, 03:56:00 AM »
There aren't actually too many pro-AI trends in this study. Majorities do see a positive role for AI in
Quote
Forecasting the weather (74%) Searching for financial crimes (70%) Searching for fraud in government benefits claims (70%) Developing new medicines (66%) Identifying suspects in a crime (61%)
In other words, people are willing to let AI do statistical analysis or medical research, but they went thumbs down on other applications.

In general, is AI more risky or more beneficial? 57% said more risky, 25% said more beneficial. 60% want to have more say over how AI is used. Majorities or pluralities say that AI will result in decline of human skills related to thinking creatively, forming relationships, making decisions, and solving problems. Interestingly for us, 76% of Americans say
Quote
it?s extremely or very important to be able to tell if pictures, videos and text were made by AI or people.
So much for the idea that fans don't care. Now, it is true that the question wasn't designed to test reactions to creative products partially produced by AI (which would be most of them.) But it's reasonable to assume that products that are mostly AI would be highly suspect. And it's also easy to see why the industry goes bonkers over potential labeling and disclosure requirements.

There are a lot of fake videos (that is, AI-created videos) on Facebook and, when you look at the comments, a lot of people call them out.  Sometimes they are labeled with "Sora 2" or whatever, but other times they are not.  But, so far, there are often tells that reveal they were created by AI.

As some of us here have argued, there really is no need for AI in creative fields.  For many of us, our whole lives we have been promised a future of automation where computers and robots would do all the work, which would free humans to do all our creative pursuits, like painting, writing, drawing or whatever.  Instead, we are getting a lot of the opposite.  And, fortunately, there seems to be growing backlash against it, which is also probably why a lot of "creatives" want to hide the fact they are using AI to do their writing or illustrating or whatever.  If people want authenticity, they aren't going to get it from someone using AI.  They're just not, no matter how much people want to jump up and down and claim that people don't care.

There's already a term for it: AI slop.

On the flip side, most of us are okay with using AI for data analysis, identifying fraud, medical research, etc.  Many of those things were done on computers before AI.  AI is just the current buzzword.  It's a more advanced set of algorithms and interactivity than what we had before, but, despite the name, it's still not intelligence.  So, I do believe that it is probably true that AI will create a lot of new jobs because people--actual people--will need to oversee and check and verify what these AI tools produce.

But, so far, despite all the promises of AI, AI still has:

1) NOT cured cancer
2) NOT figured out the actual identity of D.B. Cooper
3) NOT created any reliable, sustainable means of generating energy such as will be needed for all these AI data centers that, so far, seem to largely focus on creating fake cat videos
4) NOT figured out the identity of Jack the Ripper
5) NOT produced an original thought

The list could go on.  If you're single, can AI find your perfect match?  Nope.  If you're broke, can AI develop a plan for you to earn $500 per day?  Nope.  If you have heart failure, can AI find a way to reverse it?  Nope.  If your dog is lost, can AI find it?  Nope.

But, AI can be trained on thousands and thousands of copyrighted works in order to create derivatives of those works to compete with the original works it "trained" on without the permission of or compensation to the creators of any of those works.

And, oh yes, AI will be used in military applications to destroy targets and kill "enemy" soldiers without human oversight.

So, yeah, we get promises of utopia yet the primary uses of AI so far are to copy and steal creative works from people and to kill people.  All while using tons and tons of energy.

But, it's okay because it helps some people develop more effective ads for their wares and write their eMails for them.


There are two other jokers in the deck--whether or not the AI bubble bursts, and how many times AI screws up publicly.

There was an incident several weeks ago that apparently has already dropped off the radar.  At one company, their AI deleted everything on their servers.  I don't remember if it also deleted or partially deleted data on the backups as well.

That sort of thing would give rational people pause over giving too much control over their systems to AI, which may be why the story hasn't gotten more traction.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

alhawke

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #22 on: October 30, 2025, 06:02:32 AM »
Since we've turned this a bit to AI, I want to comment on something I've seen in the past few months.

It feels as if AI is slowly taking over social media. A huge part of new content seems to be AI. So we're getting to a point where you can't trust what your eyes see as real anymore. This goes with news and PM/email contacts.

I get spammed 2-3 emails PER DAY now from fake book readers, reviewers and agents. Some of them are so thorough that they're now including photos. I don't know if the photos are real. If I said that to you only 2 yrs ago, you'd probably think I'm paranoid and crazy. But I truly believe they're now making up photos.

Most recently, one that I wasn't sure if it was real or not, I ironically scanned the message through ChatGPT. Then I came up with a ChatGPT response to email back. Prety soon the machines will just be talking to each other. :icon_rofl:
« Last Edit: October 30, 2025, 06:08:35 AM by alhawke »
 

cecilia_writer

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2025, 06:50:24 AM »
Just the other day I read quite an encouraging article (possibly on the BBC news website, possibly not!) about the possibility of robots taking on some tasks like cleaning - there already so-called robotic vacuum cleaners, of course - and even caring for older people. Though of course some older people might not take to this idea. The comments on the article were generally quite positive.
Cecilia Peartree - Woman of Mystery
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2025, 06:57:07 AM »
It feels as if AI is slowly taking over social media. A huge part of new content seems to be AI. So we're getting to a point where you can't trust what your eyes see as real anymore. This goes with news and PM/email contacts.

Facebook videos are like Dumb and Dumber.  There are videos created by real people that are dumb and then there are videos created by AI that are dumber.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Lorri Moulton

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #25 on: October 30, 2025, 07:20:46 AM »
I get spammed 2-3 emails PER DAY now from fake book readers, reviewers and agents. Some of them are so thorough that they're now including photos. I don't know if the photos are real. If I said that to you only 2 yrs ago, you'd probably think I'm paranoid and crazy. But I truly believe they're now making up photos.

I don't believe any of these.  If someone really wanted to reach me, they'd probably contact me through my website...not through social media or my email.

Like my grandmother used to say, "If it's too good to be true, run the other way." LOL


Lavender Cottage Books publishes Romance, Fantasy, Fairytales, Mystery & Suspense, and Historical Non-Fiction.
https://lavendercottagebooks.com/

https://annaviolettabooks.com/
 
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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #26 on: October 30, 2025, 07:30:15 AM »
Most of what I get through the contact form on my website is junk and I've mostly limited that.  I think that warning that they are agreeing to pay me $1,000 if they spam me keeps out the human spammers and some easy questions manage to filter out the bots.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

TimothyEllis

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #27 on: October 30, 2025, 12:06:44 PM »
Just the other day I read quite an encouraging article (possibly on the BBC news website, possibly not!) about the possibility of robots taking on some tasks like cleaning - there already so-called robotic vacuum cleaners, of course - and even caring for older people. Though of course some older people might not take to this idea. The comments on the article were generally quite positive.

That might actually be a good thing.

I'm one of those who potentially will wind up alone in my 80's. No kids, no partner, and by then maybe no close family at all.

An I, Robot type bot looking after the mundane stuff for me might actually work.

Mind you, the 'companion' type one might prefer, had too many bad endings in The Outer Limits to be that comfortable with.

But a robot robot, that might work.

Marvin, but without the paranoia.
Genres: Space Opera/Fantasy/Cyberpunk, with elements of LitRPG and GameLit, with a touch of the Supernatural. Also Spiritual and Games.



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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #28 on: October 30, 2025, 01:34:45 PM »
I've long thought an EMH with the mobile emitter would be handy.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

PJ Post

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #29 on: October 30, 2025, 10:24:30 PM »
Nothing has changed--except...

For now, the only percentages that matter are how much AI related investment is driving GDP - and the Stock Market.

From Yahoo News:

Quote
Harvard economist Jason Furman recently said that AI investments accounted for nearly 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025.

From Fortune:

Quote
Since the October 2022 bear market bottom and the launch of ChatGPT, according to Shalett's calculations, the S&P 500 has soared 90%, but most of these gains have come from a small group of stocks. The so-called "Magnificent Seven", including high-profile names like Nvidia and Microsoft, plus another 34 AI data-center ecosystem companies, are responsible for, as cited by Shalett and separately by JP Morgan Asset Management's Michael Cembalest, about three-quarters of overall market returns, 80% of earnings growth, and a staggering 90% of capital spending growth in the index. Comparatively, the other 493 names in the S&P 500 are up just 25%, showing just how concentrated the rally has become.

That's too big to fail money.

___

Just the other day I read quite an encouraging article (possibly on the BBC news website, possibly not!) about the possibility of robots taking on some tasks like cleaning - there already so-called robotic vacuum cleaners...


This quote's been floating around for a while:

Quote
I want AI to do my laundry and dishes so that I can do art and writing, not for AI to do my art and writing so that I can do my laundry and dishes.

___

Prety soon the machines will just be talking to each other. :icon_rofl:

See Dead Internet Theory.
« Last Edit: October 30, 2025, 10:31:36 PM by PJ Post »

 

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #30 on: October 30, 2025, 10:27:22 PM »
Website visitors have long been mostly AI. Cloudflare reports on a typical day that I have more than a thousand unique visitors. I wish. Jetpack reports unique visitors in the same day as like 14. It's sometimes higher, but it never approaches the Cloudflare levels. That's because the CF stats don't distinguish likely human visitors, but the JP ones do.

It's not that CF doesn't know the difference. It does have routines to keep out malicious bots, and it can block AI-training bots pretty well. Since I applied more bot security, the bandwidth being consumed has dropped remarkably.

There are still a lot of potential human viewers out there. But it is also true that audience stats are skewed by bots.


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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #31 on: October 30, 2025, 11:01:36 PM »
Nothing has changed--except...

For now, the only percentages that matter are how much AI related investment is driving GDP - and the Stock Market.

From Yahoo News:

Quote
Harvard economist Jason Furman recently said that AI investments accounted for nearly 92% of U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025.

From Fortune:

Quote
Since the October 2022 bear market bottom and the launch of ChatGPT, according to Shalett?s calculations, the S&P 500 has soared 90%, but most of these gains have come from a small group of stocks. The so-called ?Magnificent Seven??including high-profile names like Nvidia and Microsoft?plus another 34 AI data-center ecosystem companies, are responsible for, as cited by Shalett and separately by JP Morgan Asset Management?s Michael Cembalest, about three-quarters of overall market returns, 80% of earnings growth, and a staggering 90% of capital spending growth in the index. Comparatively, the other 493 names in the S&P 500 are up just 25%?showing just how concentrated the rally has become.

That's too big to fail money.
The issue is that the economic growth fueled by AI is largely artificial.
Quote
Some investors say AI isn?t helping enough companies make money and therefore isn?t actually growing the economy.

Others say the massive investment deals recently announced among a small group of AI giants are effectively ?circular? because money and stock pass back and forth between parties in such transactions.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stock-market-ai-boom-dot-com-bubble-rcna237679
The statistics you're citing are thus an indication of an unhealthy economy, not a healthy one. We just had a quarter with some overall GDP growth, but GDP was largely stagnant earlier, and it will probably be again. In other words, trading in overvalued stocks is producing an artificially rosy picture that may not be well grounded in reality.

The economic news cycle is dominated by large-scale layoffs and store closures rather than employment increases and new openings that would indicate a truly healthy economy.

As for the stock market, the gains there are unrealized gains. If investors get nervous and start panic selling (as around April 2, for example), billions of dollars can vanish in minutes. What's on the table is really more like faerie gold that looks real but can be gone come sunrise.

More and more economists are equating our current situation to the .com bubble, in which a correction on overvalued stock led to a crash. Per the source cited above, the Buffett indicator (the ratio of stock valuation to GDP) was 140% when the .com bubble burst. In other words, the total value of stocks was greater than what the total US economy was worth. That's not where you want to be. Currently, the Buffett indicator is above 210%.

All the money on the table didn't keep the .com bubble from bursting, and it won't keep the Ai bubble from bursting.

Rising unemployment is never good politically. Nor are stock market crashes. Put them both together, and potentially, you have a depression. Politicians have a hard time weathering recessions. As a group, they don't weather depressions. If, as I think likely, an economic downturn can reasonably be attributed to AI, then every politician will be in a lifeboat marked "Down with AI." And the money on the table? It'll all be gone when the bubble bursts. Some AI companies will survive, but most of that money isn't going to reappear for quite a while. To the extent it does, other issues, like unemployment-reduced purchasing power, will keep economic growth down.

There was a huge amount of money (relative to the time period) on the stock market table right before the crash of 1929. That didn't prevent a crash any more than the money on the table during the .com bubble prevented a crash. And crashes lead to changes. Depressions lead to even bigger ones. Republicans had been the dominant party in the US since the end of the Civil War. Grover Cleveland won in shaky economic times. Woodrow Wilson won when the Republican party split. Otherwise, Republicans owned the White House, and for the most part, Congress. Democrats lost by sizeable landslides in 1920, 1924, and 1928. Then they won in a landslide in 1932 and a bigger one in 1936, ending up with huge majorities in both houses of Congress (and a much different economic philosophy than even the Democrats had had to begin with). Dems didn't always win the presidency after that, but they remained the majority party until the 1980s. (Eisenhower, despite his own landslides, had a Dem Congress for six out of eight years; Nixon and Ford had Dem Congress for all eight years. Even Reagan had a Dem house for all eight years and a senate for two.

What a difference a crash makes. What a difference an economic downturn makes, and the bigger the downturn, the bigger the change. It's hard to know what direction the change will be. Whichever party holds power at the time will be the big loser, but both are likely to throw AI under the bus--hard.   





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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #32 on: October 30, 2025, 11:40:01 PM »
That's too big to fail money.

That's what they said before 1929, and the crash in the 80's.

Website visitors have long been mostly AI.

I had to get a bot blocking service put on here. Fortunately that was server side and free, and the host did it.

That was back when we were having bandwidth issues.
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PJ Post

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #33 on: October 31, 2025, 12:25:04 AM »
The issue is that the economic growth fueled by AI is...

More or less yes to everything you said.

I mean there's all the amazing things AI is doing, science and medicine, etc., which is reason enough to want it to succeed, but it's the money that seems to be driving everything. Which is why the powers-that-be are not going to just let AI fail. I mean it still might, but not without a fight. And if it is a bubble, and if it does collapse, we'll have an ugly depression to show for it.

But I think the planners at the top have a long-term vision and know where we're headed. I'm an AI optimist. The world is going to sh*t, and we need something to hang our hat on. Too many people around the world live in poverty and much much worse. It's unacceptable. And the Status Quo has zero interest in changing anything. AI has the potential to force meaningful change through innovation.

 

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #34 on: October 31, 2025, 12:27:03 AM »
I mean there's all the amazing things AI is doing, science and medicine,

Where's the list of accomplishments?

If that sort of thing is achieving anything, it would be nice see a list of it.
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PJ Post

« Last Edit: October 31, 2025, 12:53:52 AM by PJ Post »

 

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #36 on: October 31, 2025, 12:56:45 AM »
Where's the list of accomplishments?

For example:

https://www.futureaiplanet.com/2025/10/10-ai-healthcare-examples-2025.html

Only about half of that looks useful, and that half is unlikely to be available to the people who need it most.

The other half comes under 'f*ck no!". Like the Diabetes thing. No way in hell am I having a bot tell me to go for a ten minute walk. That isn't happening. Might be needed by some type 1s, but for type 2s, they have to be doing it wrong to need that.

The transcribing thing is truly terrifying, since none of the bots can actually turn voice into text reliably. All those bot reels where the text is not what was said, and really badly not what was said, show that. How anyone can trust those is terrifying.

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Lorri Moulton

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #37 on: October 31, 2025, 02:47:08 AM »
I wasn't around for the 1929 crash, but I do remember the dot com crash.  I knew people who went from $1M to $100k in mere moments.  The difference was, tech industries were jumping into the market and people were "betting" they would be successful...even when they hadn't done anything yet.  Everyone wanted to get in on the next big thing.

With AI, there are examples where it's actually going to be used, is being used, has a way to make money, etc.  Even in the dot com crash, a lot of companies survived and are probably worth a lot more now than they were at the height of the dot com rally.

And to note...some of the people who lost money (unless they bought very late) still made more than they invested initially.  Timing is always the key with the stock market.  Which is why I'd go to Vegas before I'd invest in stocks.  Even if I had the money.   :angel:

ETA:  As for AI itself, I doubt it's going away.  Too much money, too much power, too much control.  Like any tool, it could be used to do some very amazing/wonderful things.  Let's hope we see that side, too.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2025, 03:14:02 AM by Lorri Moulton »


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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #38 on: October 31, 2025, 03:37:12 AM »
Website visitors have long been mostly AI. Cloudflare reports on a typical day that I have more than a thousand unique visitors. I wish. Jetpack reports unique visitors in the same day as like 14. It's sometimes higher, but it never approaches the Cloudflare levels. That's because the CF stats don't distinguish likely human visitors, but the JP ones do.

It's not that CF doesn't know the difference. It does have routines to keep out malicious bots, and it can block AI-training bots pretty well. Since I applied more bot security, the bandwidth being consumed has dropped remarkably.

There are still a lot of potential human viewers out there. But it is also true that audience stats are skewed by bots.

If you use WordPress, there are a number of plugins (free and paid) that will block a lot of the fake traffic.

I host a site for a client that is a small, local organization.  It is not a website that is used daily.  Yet, several times this year, it exceeded its bandwidth by significant amounts before the month was even over.  The site was consuming more bandwidth than sites much larger and more active used.

But, I found a plugin that blocks bots and, I think, AI bots and whatnot and installed it.  Just used the free version of the plugin.  Also, had to watch the activity logs to identify some problem scrapers that weren't in the free list.  Anyway, once I got that installed and configured, traffic has gone way, way down to almost normal levels.

But it is a constant battle.  It's not just search engines scanning your site anymore or even the occasional scraper tools from sketchy Internet marketers.  Now it's all these AI bots scanning your site for content to use for its training material.

And, of course, they pay you nothing for the bandwidth they consume nor do you get any benefit from it.
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Post-Doctorate D

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #39 on: October 31, 2025, 03:44:20 AM »
The issue is that the economic growth fueled by AI is largely artificial.

:tup3b
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #40 on: November 01, 2025, 03:36:42 AM »
Quote
But I think the planners at the top have a long-term vision and know where we're headed. I'm an AI optimist. The world is going to sh*t, and we need something to hang our hat on. Too many people around the world live in poverty and much much worse. It's unacceptable. And the Status Quo has zero interest in changing anything. AI has the potential to force meaningful change through innovation.

We agree that there are a lot of problems. But the sticking point is still what it was the last time we touched on the same topic--how do we get from a for-profit model to an altruistic one? If there's too much money on the table to stop AI, isn't there too much money on the table to allow for the creation of utopia?

The medical examples you cite do indeed show a lot of promise, and it doesn't appear that, in general, they put that many people out of work. But even as these medical advances occur, corporate American is gearing up for massive layoffs. Since health insurance is still largely tied to employment, at least in the US, Timothy is right to point out that all those advances won't even affect a lot of people because they have little or no access to healthcare, and the population in that condition will increase, probably substantially.

We could restrict AI to things like medical data analysis where it can do better than humans. But we're not going to do that because there's a lot of money in enabling efficiencies that allow large corporations to cut jobs. And no one is stepping up to fund universal healthcare and/or universal basic income--let alone universal high income. So income inequality will become even worse, poverty will become even worse, and at some point, there won't be enough consumers to sustain a capitalist economy. If the decision-making is based on money on the table, as you suggest, then what incentive is there to take some of that money off the table to fund a more utopian vision.

In California and other places, we seen how large developers address affordable housing. They push through large structures, using affordable housing as a pretext. But the bottom story is usually retail--sometimes upscale retail. In the floors above, you may have ten affordable units for every hundred regular-priced or even luxury units. These large structures create problems with everything from traffic to air circulation--but they don't solve the underlying problem of affordable housing. Their whole purpose is to maximize developer profits with the tiniest nod to affordable housing.

That's how I see AI. Developers are motivated by profit. They may incidentally do some good along the way, but I doubt it will outweigh the harm.

To Lorri's point, yes, AI is more substantive than some of the .com startups were. But its stock is still valued far higher than it would be if the basis were what AI can reasonably do now. It's valued on what people think AI may be able to do at some future point. And when the valuation so far exceeds the gross domestic product, that leads to crashes.  In the .com bubble, valuation exceeded GDP by less than 50%. Now, valuation exceeds GDP by more than 100%. That suggests an even bigger crash than the .com one. Some may survive or even prosper in their wake, but that isn't guaranteed. 
« Last Edit: November 01, 2025, 10:33:01 PM by Bill Hiatt »


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LilyBLily

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #41 on: November 01, 2025, 06:43:13 AM »
If I'm about to "lose" some of the value of my stock market investments I'd sure like to "win" a substantial payout from the Anthropic lawsuit. 

 

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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #42 on: November 01, 2025, 10:43:21 PM »
Ideally, losses will eventually be recouped. And if you're dealing with a managed brokerage kind of account (and/or mutual fund investments and/or most pension funds), chances are brokers are already starting to shift away from AI stocks (even though that's where most of the growth is) to play it safe. And the general rule of thumb when the stock market is shaky or erratic, as it has been recently, to invest less in stocks and more in bonds. In other words, people who buy heavily into AI stocks could take huge losses if the bubble bursts. Ordinary mortals who have other people managing their investments will typically sustain much lower losses. That makes it easier to wait for the eventual upswing.

Also, even though unrealized gains aren't taxable, unrealized losses can in some circumstances be deductible, so if your portfolio shrinks in value, that can result in a reduction in tax liability.

My portfolio (mostly inherited, not funded by my teacher's salary or my royalties) has gone up and down in value with economic fluctuations. But as far as income I receive directly from it, that has remained stable.


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cecilia_writer

Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #43 on: November 02, 2025, 12:14:47 AM »
I am cautiously optimistic about the beneficial uses of AI, though there is definitely the potential for it to kill us all. One of my sons works with super-computers in a university, and every so often I take a deep breath and ask him what sort of project he's working on. A few years ago the answer was nuclear fusion, but he seems to have moved on from that without blowing up the world, so some time last year I took another deep breath and asked him again, and the answer was AI. I have no idea what the context is - I never ask for details because I wouldn't understand them, and in any case they are probably secret, but on principle I would prefer my old university to be resarching this kind of thing  rather than some crazed billionaire.
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Re: AI book piracy lawsuit payout
« Reply #44 on: November 02, 2025, 12:45:47 AM »
Yes, I'd prefer a university to a crazed billionaire, too. grint

Maybe if AI had developed in the hands of of people for whom profit wasn't the principal motivation, I'd have more faith in a good outcome. One is still possible, but just not as likely as I'd want it to be.



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