Author Topic: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?  (Read 34014 times)

Joe Vasicek

What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« on: December 19, 2018, 03:05:33 PM »
I honestly have none, I just want to read yours. :angel:

Okay, here's one:

The global economy slows down, and perhaps enters a recession. Barnes & Noble finally goes under, and that knocks over a bunch of other dominoes in the industry. However, with less money to spend, more people turn to ebooks, especially cheap indie ebooks. So things get easier in some ways—or rather, new opportunities are opened.

What are your predictions?
 

CoraBuhlert

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #1 on: December 19, 2018, 05:27:34 PM »
Barnes & Noble has been dying for years now and I no longer hold my breath. I also don't see the Big Five dying off anytime soon, because they are owned by huge global media conglomerates for whom books are just a tiny part of their business. Small presses and medium-sized publishers may have more issues, but I don't see e.g. Baen, Harlequin/Mills & Boon or Kensington go under either. There may be mergers and the number of titles published may be reduced, but traditional publishing is here to stay for a while yet.

As for indies, I don't think the content mills will drive us all out of business, but I suspect more indies will go wide, as the content mills suck up KU visibility. Some indies will vanish, others will go (back) to traditional publishing and new ones will come into the market. In short, business as usual.

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GeneDoucette

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #2 on: December 20, 2018, 01:37:42 AM »
I predict Amazon will augment Prime Reading (somehow) and shutter Kindle Unlimited.
 

cmstafford

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #3 on: December 20, 2018, 02:03:18 AM »
I agree on more indies going wide, and to combat that, I foresee Amazon coming up with a plan to entice indies back by offering them a lower royalty rate, but allowing them to to wide at the same time. Or maybe that's a pipe dream.
 

Eric Thomson

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #4 on: December 20, 2018, 03:19:58 AM »
I predict that most, if not all predictions, won't come true.  grint
 :cheers
 
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LilyBLily

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #5 on: December 20, 2018, 03:24:54 AM »
A lower rate? How is that an enticement?
 

RappaDizzy

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #6 on: December 20, 2018, 03:27:16 AM »
I predict it will still be there. That's about the only thing I've ever been right on.
 

GeneDoucette

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #7 on: December 20, 2018, 03:28:08 AM »
A lower rate? How is that an enticement?

"You can be in KU and also wide, as long as you accept less than 70% for your Amazon sales" is the suggestion.
 

munboy

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #8 on: December 20, 2018, 03:44:58 AM »
I predict (hope!!) that we'll start seeing more royalties from KU now that book stuffers are being kicked out. That should mean the KU money pool will get spread out a little more....right?  :icon_think:
 

angela

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #9 on: December 20, 2018, 04:04:27 AM »
I predict (hope!!) that we'll start seeing more royalties from KU now that book stuffers are being kicked out. That should mean the KU money pool will get spread out a little more....right?  :icon_think:

Hasn't happened yet. Won't happen in the future.

I predict more "authors" releasing 100 books under their name in 2019.

And also more "debut" authors dropping 10 sleek books in rapid succession.

Higher prices for advertising. Lower payouts for KU.

More small-niche authors crossing into bigger genres that have higher ceilings then having a hard time competing with the crowds.

More $500 courses that promise the moon and stars.

We'll hear a lot about audio sales, but it'll be feast or famine thanks to the merchandising powers that be at Audible who are the kingmakers. Don't listen to what these people suggest you do for promotion. Their best advice is that you start a podcast. I. Can't. Even.

  :band: :band: :band:

 

munboy

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #10 on: December 20, 2018, 04:12:22 AM »
I predict (hope!!) that we'll start seeing more royalties from KU now that book stuffers are being kicked out. That should mean the KU money pool will get spread out a little more....right?  :icon_think:

Hasn't happened yet. Won't happen in the future.


A guy can hope, right?  :icon_rofl:
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #11 on: December 20, 2018, 04:28:53 AM »
When I look into my crystal ball for 2019, I see . . .

Facebook will start Facebook Books to compete with Amazon and they'll pay you 80% royalties if you agree to be exclusive to Facebook Unlimited.

They will introduce a Facebook Reader similar to a Kindle except you'll only be able to read books or visit Facebook on it.

They will also sell the real identity behind your pen name and all your personal messages to any company or anyone who gives them a decent sum of money.

And then they will unveil their new ad slogan, "Suck it, losers!  Where else you gonna go?  MySpace?  LOL."

Bear in mind my crystal ball is plastic so I'm not sure how its accuracy compares with genuine quartz.
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munboy

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #12 on: December 20, 2018, 04:36:24 AM »
When I look into my crystal ball for 2019, I see . . .

Facebook will start Facebook Books to compete with Amazon and they'll pay you 80% royalties if you agree to be exclusive to Facebook Unlimited.

They will introduce a Facebook Reader similar to a Kindle except you'll only be able to read books or visit Facebook on it.

They will also sell the real identity behind your pen name and all your personal messages to any company or anyone who gives them a decent sum of money.

And then they will unveil their new ad slogan, "Suck it, losers!  Where else you gonna go?  MySpace?  LOL."

Bear in mind my crystal ball is plastic so I'm not sure how its accuracy compares with genuine quartz.

Your crystal ball sounds better than mine...
 
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LilyBLily

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #13 on: December 20, 2018, 04:57:53 AM »
Simon & Schuster is pushing a free ebook if you sign up for its newsletter and download the Glose app. Most of the free books are old, and many are public domain. A few are recent releases. I predict more lame stuff like this, where the intent is to capture you as a customer, but the incentive is nearly worthless and far too complicated to access.
 

Anarchist

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #14 on: December 20, 2018, 05:11:15 AM »
A tidal wave of authors who lack publishing chops (audience targeting, marketing, promotion, branding, etc.) will abandon the idea of making a living writing books.
"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell

"The State is an institution run by gangs of murderers, plunderers and thieves, surrounded by willing executioners, propagandists, sycophants, crooks, liars, clowns, charlatans, dupes and useful idiots -- an institution that dirties and taints everything it touches." - Hans Hoppe

"Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience." - Adam Smith

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cmstafford

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #15 on: December 20, 2018, 05:46:38 AM »
A lower rate? How is that an enticement?

"You can be in KU and also wide, as long as you accept less than 70% for your Amazon sales" is the suggestion.

There was some buzz a while ago, I don't know if it was in 20books or my Kindle Scout group, about some authors who added books and mistakenly saw a 50% option for royalty. There was speculation that it was a test they were inadvertently added to where authors could select the 50% rate, be in KU, and still go wide. I don't think it was ever proven, but it'd make sense if Amazon wanted to be even more competitive.
 

angela

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #16 on: December 20, 2018, 05:47:54 AM »
A tidal wave of authors who lack publishing chops (audience targeting, marketing, promotion, branding, etc.) will abandon the idea of making a living writing books.

Maybe. But then 2 tidal waves of hopefuls will take their place. That's why I'm preparing my $500 course about how to guaranteed make six figures annually on 2 novels published.*

*Per hour.
 

JRTomlin

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #17 on: December 20, 2018, 05:53:10 AM »
My prediction: Books will be published. Some will be sold.
 
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Anarchist

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #18 on: December 20, 2018, 06:11:52 AM »
A tidal wave of authors who lack publishing chops (audience targeting, marketing, promotion, branding, etc.) will abandon the idea of making a living writing books.

Maybe. But then 2 tidal waves of hopefuls will take their place.

I think the volume of incoming hopefuls will diminish as time passes.

It's like building a site to rank for competitive terms (e.g. mortgage loans, payday loans, etc.) on Google. In 2002, it was easy. By 2010, the difficulty of doing so had increased by an order of magnitude. Many hopefuls gave up, lacking the capital, time, and skills required. Today, no one ranks for "mortgage loans" unless they're bankrate, wellsfargo, or another authority site.

There are no longer any hopefuls in that game (without VC money).

I suspect indie publishing will follow a similar path.


"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell

"The State is an institution run by gangs of murderers, plunderers and thieves, surrounded by willing executioners, propagandists, sycophants, crooks, liars, clowns, charlatans, dupes and useful idiots -- an institution that dirties and taints everything it touches." - Hans Hoppe

"Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience." - Adam Smith

Nothing that requires the labor of others is a basic human right.

I keep a stiff upper lip and shoot from the hip. - AC/DC
 
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angela

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #19 on: December 20, 2018, 06:27:30 AM »

I think the volume of incoming hopefuls will diminish as time passes.

It's like building a site to rank for competitive terms (e.g. mortgage loans, payday loans, etc.) on Google. In 2002, it was easy. By 2010, the difficulty of doing so had increased by an order of magnitude. Many hopefuls gave up, lacking the capital, time, and skills required. Today, no one ranks for "mortgage loans" unless they're bankrate, wellsfargo, or another authority site.

There are no longer any hopefuls in that game (without VC money).

I suspect indie publishing will follow a similar path.

I see it becoming easier and more acceptable for hopefuls to self-publish. But when they do, they'll be shocked by how hard it is to sell the books. This has been happening with my local writing group. People are able to get professional covers and editing and marketing advice. They release a decent book in a niche genre, and then... crickets. 

Unlike the early days of self-pub, where newbies could get a second chance by fixing their covers, there won't be any second chances for the newbies of 2019.

ETA: That's a good point about search engine optimization. I was building websites in the late 90s. I had a few real estate agents who jumped on the internet at the right time and leaped ahead of their fellow agents, just by providing a bit of basic information and a form for doing a home valuation.

We have seen this business cycle in all sorts of businesses, so the future won't be too surprising.

If I can keep writing something I enjoy, and have enough sales that it feels like my hard work is being appreciated, I'll be grateful. But I do miss those early years of feeling like a big break might be right around the corner. The real challenge is to be pragmatic but not cynical, efficient but not dead inside LOL

« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 06:32:45 AM by angelapepper »
 
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Tafkal

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #20 on: December 20, 2018, 06:35:13 AM »

That's why I'm preparing my $500 course about how to guaranteed make six figures annually on 2 novels published.*

*Per hour.

 grint grint grint
 

Anarchist

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #21 on: December 20, 2018, 09:38:38 AM »
I see it becoming easier and more acceptable for hopefuls to self-publish. But when they do, they'll be shocked by how hard it is to sell the books. This has been happening with my local writing group. People are able to get professional covers and editing and marketing advice. They release a decent book in a niche genre, and then... crickets. 

Unlike the early days of self-pub, where newbies could get a second chance by fixing their covers, there won't be any second chances for the newbies of 2019.

ETA: That's a good point about search engine optimization. I was building websites in the late 90s. I had a few real estate agents who jumped on the internet at the right time and leaped ahead of their fellow agents, just by providing a bit of basic information and a form for doing a home valuation.

We have seen this business cycle in all sorts of businesses, so the future won't be too surprising.

If I can keep writing something I enjoy, and have enough sales that it feels like my hard work is being appreciated, I'll be grateful. But I do miss those early years of feeling like a big break might be right around the corner. The real challenge is to be pragmatic but not cynical, efficient but not dead inside LOL

I agree. It has never been easier to self-publish than it is today. And it'll be easier still tomorrow. Kinda like building websites. These days, you can slap together a great-looking site in minutes. But I remember hand-coding php and css style sheets in the old days. It wasn't hard. It was just annoying, and I ended up outsourcing everything.

Because considering the money you could make via search, I got to the point where I felt...





Late 90's and early-mid aughts were the glory days of lead gen for the solopreneur. Build niche sites (e.g. auto insurance, class action attorney, subprime mortgages), drive targeted traffic to them, qualify the traffic, and sell the leads to various businesses. I had hundreds of sites, and it was a serious gold rush. :)

Again, back then, it was a chore to build sites that inspired visitors' trust. With today's tools, it's easy peasy. Sort of like self-publishing a book.

But bringing home serious earnings? As you noted, that ain't so easy peasy. And it's only going to get harder.

"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell

"The State is an institution run by gangs of murderers, plunderers and thieves, surrounded by willing executioners, propagandists, sycophants, crooks, liars, clowns, charlatans, dupes and useful idiots -- an institution that dirties and taints everything it touches." - Hans Hoppe

"Virtue is more to be feared than vice, because its excesses are not subject to the regulation of conscience." - Adam Smith

Nothing that requires the labor of others is a basic human right.

I keep a stiff upper lip and shoot from the hip. - AC/DC
 

Joseph Malik

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2018, 11:37:38 AM »
A household-name author will turn to indie publishing to finally release that lifetime masterpiece or pet project that their agent or editor couldn't or wouldn't touch. They'll hire the same editor and cover designer that they use with their Big 5 publisher, hire the same publicist and distributor they've been working with for twenty years, capitalize the sh*t out of the launch, and when it hits the shelves there will be no way to know it didn't come from HarperCollins or Tor or whoever and nobody, no reader anywhere, will care. It'll be a massive, world-rocking success and pick up award nods and an Oprah sticker, and the bar of reader expectation will get raised back to where it was twenty years ago, because that book will be what readers come to expect from an "independent release."

Maybe not next year, but it's coming. I give it five years, tops.
 
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idontknowyet

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #23 on: December 20, 2018, 11:56:38 AM »
A household-name author will turn to indie publishing to finally release that lifetime masterpiece or pet project that their agent or editor couldn't or wouldn't touch. They'll hire the same editor and cover designer that they use with their Big 5 publisher, hire the same publicist and distributor they've been working with for twenty years, capitalize the sh*t out of the launch, and when it hits the shelves there will be no way to know it didn't come from HarperCollins or Tor or whoever and nobody, no reader anywhere, will care. It'll be a massive, world-rocking success and pick up award nods and an Oprah sticker, and the bar of reader expectation will get raised back to where it was twenty years ago, because that book will be what readers come to expect from an "independent release."

Maybe not next year, but it's coming. I give it five years, tops.


I've actually wondered why a few of them haven't done this already.
 

CoraBuhlert

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #24 on: December 20, 2018, 12:04:43 PM »
Quote
I think the volume of incoming hopefuls will diminish as time passes.

It's like building a site to rank for competitive terms (e.g. mortgage loans, payday loans, etc.) on Google. In 2002, it was easy. By 2010, the difficulty of doing so had increased by an order of magnitude. Many hopefuls gave up, lacking the capital, time, and skills required. Today, no one ranks for "mortgage loans" unless they're bankrate, wellsfargo, or another authority site.

There are no longer any hopefuls in that game (without VC money).

I suspect indie publishing will follow a similar path.

I guess very few of the website builders of 2002 were genuinely interested in mortgage loans, payday loans, etc... They merely built those sites for the money.

However, a lot of people enjoy telling stories and writing books. These people will continue to flock to self-publishing. Some of them may learn and stick around, others might not.

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Joseph Malik

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #25 on: December 20, 2018, 12:16:17 PM »
I've actually wondered why a few of them haven't done this already.

I've had this discussion with some fairly major authors as I've been doing cons over the past year. They didn't even know that it was possible to hire your own professional team and just foot the bill yourself, until I explained that I'd done very well by doing exactly that. And then, wow, the questions.

One of them has hired us to help build a promo campaign, website, and revamp her branding and SEO. Her self-published book is coming out next year. We were this close to releasing it through our publishing company but we couldn't risk the capital at that time. (We didn't know that The New Magic was going to do as well as it has.)

The book she's releasing may not be the book that blows the top off, but we're definitely going to see more and more big-name authors going hybrid.
 
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PJ Post

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #26 on: December 20, 2018, 01:01:08 PM »
It's going to suck even more.   :banana-riding-llama-smiley-em

 
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David VanDyke

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #27 on: December 20, 2018, 01:53:44 PM »


I've actually wondered why a few of them haven't done this already.

Contracts with agents that give them a piece of everything, self-pubbed or not. Noncompete clauses. Fear that the publisher will blacklist them (because many of these monster earners don't actually realize how much power they have).

It would have to be someone of the status of a Rowling. Oh, wait--she already did it, basically, by forming her own publishing company. As did Patterson. Probably others.

Yes, we do have to wonder why a solid high-midlister like JA Jance, someone at that level, doesn't simply move on to being an indie. I don't think they really understand how they'd probably triple their earnings for any new release. They're taking their 50K + 12.5% and being happy with it, not realizing they could get 150K the first year and 70% every year thereafter on their own.

Just my educated guess.

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Laughing Elephant

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #28 on: December 20, 2018, 03:20:09 PM »
I predict ...

More books

-

Less story


 :smilie_zauber:
 

Tom Wood

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #29 on: December 20, 2018, 03:33:10 PM »
I predict that Indie writers will get better at finding their readers.
 

BillSmithBooksDotCom

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #30 on: December 24, 2018, 01:34:55 AM »
A lower rate? How is that an enticement?

I think the idea is that under a modified agreement, you can be in Kindle Unlimited but with lower royalties and still be wide. So, right now, KU pays roughly .5 cents per page. Maybe you get .3 per page but you can also be wide with other distributors?

I'm really wondering what most authors will do:
1) The content mills and scammers are soaking up a lot of money in KU. (All of those fraudulent page reads are reducing the average per page payout ... it's simple arithmetic)
2) As Russell Blake has posted, Amazon playing with also boughts and leveraging Kindle into a "pay to play" advertising platform at the expense of organic discovery is making Kindle more expensive for authors.

So, as a whole, Kindle, while still the dominant platform, is quickly becoming a lot less attractive, especially KU. It would seem to me that the obvious solution is for authors to take up more promotion on their own outside of Amazon ... and if that is happening, what incentive is there to promote Kindle over other platforms?

Amazon squeezing authors for ad dollars may end up undermining their massive market share in the long run.

(I'm wide on general principle, so it's an emotional not a business decision, but at least I don't have to worry about my strategy.)
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Luke Everhart

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #31 on: December 24, 2018, 03:27:29 AM »
I predict (hope!!) that we'll start seeing more royalties from KU now that book stuffers are being kicked out. That should mean the KU money pool will get spread out a little more....right?  :icon_think:

Hasn't happened yet. Won't happen in the future.


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Bill Hiatt

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #32 on: December 24, 2018, 04:45:17 AM »
I could go pessimistic or optimistic.

Pessimistic: Content mills (with and without botting and other techniques) make such a circus out of KU that Amazon shuts it down and replaces it with an invitation-only program that cuts out the rest of us and makes discoverability even harder. Or perhaps Amazon goes even further, decides KDP is more trouble than it's worth, and basically shuts down self-publishing. (Other vendors might sustain it for a while, but their initial embrace of it was a reaction to Amazon having it.) This isn't as strange as it sounds. Over the past couple of years, Amazon has phased out indie creative outlets like Kindle Worlds or closed them to new indie submissions (Kindle Press dropped the Kindle Scout program, Kindle Singles reopened as a program tied to Amazon Publishing that no longer accepts unagented submissions.) Amazon could easily peal off the top indies by offering them Amazon Publishing contracts on good terms and then dump everybody else, content mills and prawns alike. (Some top indies would want to stay indie, but what if KDP ceased to exist?)

Optimistic: New initiatives like the Kobo-Walmart alliance begin to eat into Amazon market share. Smelling blood in the water, other vendors up their game as well. The Big Five form some kind of join initiative to buy Barnes and Noble and revitalize it. Amazon realizes that an overemphasis on ads and gimmicks is ruining its bookstore, even as ad blindness is causing ad revenues to decline. In an effort to hold on, Amazon starts treating authors better, and the most talented indies flourish. It will even drop the exclusivity clause from KU. (What do KU readers care whether the work is available to buy elsewhere? And Amazon's effort to starve other sites of content can't really work as long as they have all those trad titles to push.) The sheer growth in the number of indies and the number of books is still going to make visibility tougher, but the people who struggle forward and have the talent will be rewarded better than they are currently. As self publishing gains wider and wider respect, self published share of book income will continue to increase.

The reality will probably fall somewhere between those extremes.


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ragdoll

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #33 on: December 24, 2018, 05:17:19 AM »
I predict Amazon will augment Prime Reading (somehow) and shutter Kindle Unlimited.

Amazon wants to keep its customers in its environment as much as possible. About 2 weeks ago my husband saw two semis carrying 4 Amazon delivery vans each in Memphis (the metro area has 2 Wholesale Foods, which Amazon owns) and I saw an Amazon delivery van out doing its rounds a couple weeks before that. Keeping customers in their environment means people buy their groceries on the kindle, buy their clothes on kindle, buy their books and movies on kindle, watch a crap ton of free content on Kindle Prime and read free content on KU. So KU is going nowhere IMO, although I deeply wish it were otherwise.

Another factor, Amazon is making decent money off AMS for KU books and books trying to compete against KU books. I know KDP books are a small part of Amazon's business, so AMS $ is an even smaller drop in the bucket, but I don't see KU getting shuttered for that reason and the above reasoning.
 

ragdoll

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #34 on: December 24, 2018, 05:22:04 AM »


I think the volume of incoming hopefuls will diminish as time passes.

It's like building a site to rank for competitive terms (e.g. mortgage loans, payday loans, etc.) on Google. In 2002, it was easy. By 2010, the difficulty of doing so had increased by an order of magnitude. ...

Funny because a number of the authors I know (legit) or knew (kinda scammy) jumped from having dozens or more sites they managed for ad revenue to trying their hand at the kindle gold rush. And, yes, I expect a lot of them to move on now.
 

lyndabelle

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #35 on: December 24, 2018, 08:21:26 AM »
A household-name author will turn to indie publishing to finally release that lifetime masterpiece or pet project that their agent or editor couldn't or wouldn't touch. They'll hire the same editor and cover designer that they use with their Big 5 publisher, hire the same publicist and distributor they've been working with for twenty years, capitalize the sh*t out of the launch, and when it hits the shelves there will be no way to know it didn't come from HarperCollins or Tor or whoever and nobody, no reader anywhere, will care. It'll be a massive, world-rocking success and pick up award nods and an Oprah sticker, and the bar of reader expectation will get raised back to where it was twenty years ago, because that book will be what readers come to expect from an "independent release."

Maybe not next year, but it's coming. I give it five years, tops.

And we want this to be us. All of us. We will launch the book.
 

dgcasey

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #36 on: December 24, 2018, 04:13:48 PM »
A tidal wave of authors who lack publishing chops (audience targeting, marketing, promotion, branding, etc.) will abandon the idea of making a living writing books.

Sure, but just like with any other waves on the shore, another wave is soon to follow. And another one right after that.
I will not forget one line of this, not one day. I will always remember when the Doctor was me.
"The Tales of Garlan" title="The Tales of Garlan"
"Into The Wishing Well" title="Into The Wishing Well"
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I'm the Doctor by the way, what's your name? Rose. Nice to meet you, Rose. Run for your life!
 

dgcasey

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #37 on: December 24, 2018, 04:21:33 PM »
I've actually wondered why a few of them haven't done this already.

I'm guessing it's because they don't see the need. Thinking seriously about it, why would Stephen King ever go indie? He makes millions already, someone else is always taking care of things for him, such as editing, covers, marketing and so on. Why would he leave the world of tradpub behind and try to learn how to indie publish? I just don't see it for any of the top shelf authors. King, Lee Child, Dan Brown, JK Rowling and boatloads of others. They make comfortable livings without doing anything, but writing their books.
I will not forget one line of this, not one day. I will always remember when the Doctor was me.
"The Tales of Garlan" title="The Tales of Garlan"
"Into The Wishing Well" title="Into The Wishing Well"
Dave's Amazon Author page | DGlennCasey.com | TheDailyPainter.com
I'm the Doctor by the way, what's your name? Rose. Nice to meet you, Rose. Run for your life!
 

dgcasey

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #38 on: December 24, 2018, 04:30:56 PM »
About 2 weeks ago my husband saw two semis carrying 4 Amazon delivery vans each in Memphis (the metro area has 2 Wholesale Foods, which Amazon owns) and I saw an Amazon delivery van out doing its rounds a couple weeks before that.

We're going to be seeing a lot more of that over time. One of the things I like to do when I'm pushing the keyboard away is to watch Virtual Railfan videos on Youtube, which are live feeds of various railroad depots. It was nothing to see a freight train go through with dozens of UPS and FedEx trailers on the cars. Now, we're seeing Amazon trailers sprinkled in there and I think it's going to be something we see a lot more of in the near future. Amazon has already started buying its own planes to compete with UPS and FedEx.
I will not forget one line of this, not one day. I will always remember when the Doctor was me.
"The Tales of Garlan" title="The Tales of Garlan"
"Into The Wishing Well" title="Into The Wishing Well"
Dave's Amazon Author page | DGlennCasey.com | TheDailyPainter.com
I'm the Doctor by the way, what's your name? Rose. Nice to meet you, Rose. Run for your life!
 

Joe Vasicek

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #39 on: December 24, 2018, 05:59:06 PM »
New prediction: Barnes & Noble holds on for another year, and as soon as Riggio dies, it takes off like a rocket and becomes a strong competitor to Amazon in the book space.
 
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Chrissy

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #40 on: December 25, 2018, 12:57:15 AM »
 
New prediction: Barnes & Noble holds on for another year, and as soon as Riggio dies, it takes off like a rocket and becomes a strong competitor to Amazon in the book space.

Grin Grin Grin :icon_lol2: Grin Grin Grin :icon_rofl:
 

Joe Vasicek

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #41 on: December 25, 2018, 01:31:15 AM »
New prediction: Barnes & Noble holds on for another year, and as soon as Riggio dies, it takes off like a rocket and becomes a strong competitor to Amazon in the book space.

Grin Grin Grin :icon_lol2: Grin Grin Grin :icon_rofl:

That wasn't a joke.
 

GeneDoucette

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #42 on: December 25, 2018, 01:34:32 AM »
New prediction: Barnes & Noble holds on for another year, and as soon as Riggio dies, it takes off like a rocket and becomes a strong competitor to Amazon in the book space.

I like it. We'e been declaring B&N dead for how many years now? It's not dead yet. I have a column on the slow death of the Nook, which still sounds perfectly plausible now, but I wrote it two years ago. I've even bought stock in the company since. I also spent time in one of their stores while Christmas shopping, and it was hopping.
 

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #43 on: December 25, 2018, 01:58:59 AM »
New prediction: Barnes & Noble holds on for another year, and as soon as Riggio dies, it takes off like a rocket and becomes a strong competitor to Amazon in the book space.

I like it. We'e been declaring B&N dead for how many years now? It's not dead yet. I have a column on the slow death of the Nook, which still sounds perfectly plausible now, but I wrote it two years ago. I've even bought stock in the company since. I also spent time in one of their stores while Christmas shopping, and it was hopping.
My local Borders store was hopping--right until it wasn't. Stores with high rents can look busy, especially around Christmas, and still be losing money. That said, I hope you're right.


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Joe Vasicek

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #44 on: December 25, 2018, 02:09:26 AM »
Borders isn't closed, at least not internationally. It's been doing quite well in Mexico these last couple of years. We may see the rebirth of Borders in the US this year, and/or a merger with Barnes and Noble.
 

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #45 on: December 25, 2018, 02:28:31 AM »
I've actually wondered why a few of them haven't done this already.

I'm guessing it's because they don't see the need. Thinking seriously about it, why would Stephen King ever go indie? He makes millions already, someone else is always taking care of things for him, such as editing, covers, marketing and so on. Why would he leave the world of tradpub behind and try to learn how to indie publish? I just don't see it for any of the top shelf authors. King, Lee Child, Dan Brown, JK Rowling and boatloads of others. They make comfortable livings without doing anything, but writing their books.
Interestingly, Stephen King tried to go indie. Remember The Plant? Not very many people do, but it was King's attempt to sell a novel online in installments. The explicit purpose was to cut out the middlemen (publishers and distributors). King was ahead of his time in that respect. People weren't used to buying books that way, and even with his popularity, he couldn't sell the concept on his own. Had he waited until KDP took off, it might have been a different story.

As for JK Rowling, when she got big enough, she took as many of her rights as weren't already nailed down and created Pottermore. (I suspect one of the reasons publishers became more rights-grabby is in an attempt to avoid future Pottermores.)

That said, most authors who are perennial bestsellers are happy in their current situation. They are the few people for whom traditional publishing undeniably works. Could they make more as indies? With their enormous fan bases, probably, but there is risk in jumping out of a model that's worked well for them. I also suspect that they can turn down attempts to lock them into more onerous contract terms. It's the newer authors who don't have huge fan bases they might take elsewhere who are more likely to get stuck. They just don't have the bargaining leverage to easily say no to a major publisher.

Such writers would be ripe for a model with some of the benefits of trad and some of the benefits of indie if anyone could design one. I thought Amazon had the right idea with Kindle Scout: trad publishing with more author creative control and reasonable terms, including easy rights reversion. At the time it started, I thought Amazon was trying to snag the future Stephen Kings and JK Rowlings by giving them an alternative to the Big Five. I was wrong about that. Kindle Press, the imprint into which Kindle Scout books fed, ended up as the poor stepchild among the imprints. It gradually did less and less to promote books. Even as Amazon imprints in general were taking a bigger piece of the sales pie, a lot of KP books just sank. They weren't even included in programs like Kindle First  Reads and other opportunities that Amazon could have given them easily. Kindle Press also lacked the vision to develop relationships with authors. Even authors whose books did well didn't always get picked up again. Editors had a very narrow, book by book vision, and often picked up only one book in a series, even if the first book did well. We learned during the phase when finalists were getting editorial comments that books could be rejected over relatively nitpicky things that could easily have been fixed in editing (a side-effect of the only-on-round-of-editing process). The biggest heartbreaker for me was the rejection of a book (which wasn't mine) that the editor described as "brilliant." It was rejected because the author didn't seem to know anything about promotion. Isn't that the publisher's job? No wonder that process didn't work.

OK, enough Kindle Scout bitterness. In the future, if someone with vision and patience tried a model like that, it could probably be made to work. Even KS had a few success stories to its credit. Someone looking at the future instead of just the book right in front of them, someone understanding that partnership with authors is better than the servitude a lot of trads are imposing, might really create an enterprise that would take off.


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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #46 on: December 25, 2018, 02:35:15 AM »
Borders isn't closed, at least not internationally. It's been doing quite well in Mexico these last couple of years. We may see the rebirth of Borders in the US this year, and/or a merger with Barnes and Noble.
I think someone must have bought the Borders name. Yup, at least if Wikipedia is to be believed. Some Borders stores are operating, but not by the same company. CompUSA went through a similar transformation, but the new owners never expanded to anything like the proportions of the old chain.

That said, I'll keep my fingers crossed. But in the US, Barnes and Noble bought whatever pieces of Borders were left, including store leases, customer data, and name. The only way a bookstore named Borders could come back into existence in the US would be with B & N's blessing.


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GeneDoucette

Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #47 on: December 25, 2018, 03:24:33 AM »
The biggest hurdle any established Stephen King-level author would face in taking a book out on their own is print distribution. Most of us indies make so much (most or all) of our sales from ebooks that we forget how important print still is. It's still the case that trad publishing owns the means to print and distribute books for lower per-unit costs than we can.

If King wanted to publish a book entirely on his own, he'd either have to pair up with a publisher for print-only to get his books into the same places his other books can be found, or decide print wasn't worth the bother.
 

dgcasey

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #48 on: December 25, 2018, 05:32:01 AM »
That said, most authors who are perennial bestsellers are happy in their current situation. They are the few people for whom traditional publishing undeniably works.

That right there is what I'm getting at and probably not voicing clearly. How many top-tier writers want to run businesses? As most of us indies realize, being an indie means being a business owner and operator. For Stephen King and others to have the same success as indies they would have to start publishing companies of their own. How many of them want to do that? Yes, JK Rowling did it, as did a few others, but I suspect most are happy letting others handle the business side of things while they sit at their computers and write.
I will not forget one line of this, not one day. I will always remember when the Doctor was me.
"The Tales of Garlan" title="The Tales of Garlan"
"Into The Wishing Well" title="Into The Wishing Well"
Dave's Amazon Author page | DGlennCasey.com | TheDailyPainter.com
I'm the Doctor by the way, what's your name? Rose. Nice to meet you, Rose. Run for your life!
 

angela

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Re: What are your predictions for the publishing industry in 2019?
« Reply #49 on: December 25, 2018, 05:38:05 AM »
That said, most authors who are perennial bestsellers are happy in their current situation. They are the few people for whom traditional publishing undeniably works.

That right there is what I'm getting at and probably not voicing clearly. How many top-tier writers want to run businesses? As most of us indies realize, being an indie means being a business owner and operator. For Stephen King and others to have the same success as indies they would have to start publishing companies of their own. How many of them want to do that? Yes, JK Rowling did it, as did a few others, but I suspect most are happy letting others handle the business side of things while they sit at their computers and write.

Having the *option* of going indie has probably given them all leverage for even better deals with trad.  They didn't need to go indie. Just the option to.