Author Topic: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?  (Read 15978 times)

Maggie Ann

Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« on: August 31, 2019, 05:45:01 AM »
Just thought I'd check and see who else is battening down. Maybe we can hold figurative hands until the lights go out.

I've got plenty of food and drink, plenty of gas for the generator, propane for the gas grill, accordion shutters ready to be shut and locked, cash, and a plan for when my poor dog (or me for that matter) can't go outside.

We're clearing off the patio now and we'll bring in everything from the front of the house tomorrow.

Still have to fill containers with water and put them in the freezer. I'll fill the bath tubs tomorrow.

The city is already taking down traffic lights and lowering street lights.

           
 
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Vijaya

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2019, 06:09:21 AM »
Sending up prayers. Stay safe Maggie Ann and all in the path of Dorian. My husband's on his way home after dropping off the kids at Ave Maria. They survived Irma so I know they'll be fine. We're up in SC and will most likely get rain and wind later next week.


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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2019, 06:14:36 AM »
Sending up prayers. Stay safe Maggie Ann and all in the path of Dorian. My husband's on his way home after dropping off the kids at Ave Maria. They survived Irma so I know they'll be fine. We're up in SC and will most likely get rain and wind later next week.

It's the rainfall, I think, that's going to do the most damage. Thanks for the prayers. That's about all that's left to do.
           
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2019, 11:54:27 AM »
They didn't expect Dorian to reach Cat 4 until it got closer to FL, but it's a Cat 4 already. It's moving very slowly and gathering strength as it goes. Now they say it's not going to reach us until Tuesday afternoon.

Too much waiting.

           
 

Jeff Tanyard

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2019, 04:12:19 PM »
I'm too far inland to worry too much about hurricanes (so long as they don't spawn tornadoes) but I'm keeping an eye on developments anyway.
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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2019, 10:53:25 PM »
I'm too far inland to worry too much about hurricanes (so long as they don't spawn tornadoes) but I'm keeping an eye on developments anyway.

Wise move.

We may have dodged the bullet, or I should say WMD. There's been a slight change in Dorian's movement and now they predict he might not make landfall in FL, although we'll get hurricane force winds. We're on the left side of the storm and I think I heard the worst side was the right.

Fingers crossed, candles lit. If Dorian does make landfall in NC, I sure hope he weakens a whole lot before then.
           
 

Al Stevens

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Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2019, 12:31:35 AM »
We're on the Space Coast about 15 miles inland. It's going to get wet and windy here. We're as prepared as possible and do not anticipate evacuation.
     
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2019, 12:46:05 AM »
We're on the Space Coast about 15 miles inland. It's going to get wet and windy here. We're as prepared as possible and do not anticipate evacuation.

We're pretty far inland, too, but we're on The Treasure Coast.
           
 

Jan Hurst-Nicholson

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Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2019, 05:11:30 AM »
Will be thinking about you when I listen to the BBC World weather reports. The storm surges sound huge. Hope you will all be safe.

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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2019, 06:10:29 AM »
We're safe from storm surges. I'm not even in a flood zone and I'm not required to get flood insurance. My house is up on a berm, although we have had storms that flooded about a third of the way up the driveway.

They may be calling for evacuations along the coast as early as tonight.

They've been comparing the impact of this storm (if it behaves as now projected) with that of Matthew from two years ago. My neighbor had almost a forest of trees in his yard and he lost about two-thirds of them. His huge mango tree crashed within inches of my house. Matthew was just barely a Cat 1 when it hit our area. I'd be thrilled if that's the worst Dorian throws at us.

My first hurricane was Donna in 1960. We threw our patio furniture into the pool and used masking tape in big exes on our sliding glass door. Most of our windows were jalousie windows. I believe she was a Cat 3 in Miami and she lasted about 24 hours. I was so fascinated, I stayed up all night, staring out the window. Somehow, we survived.  :banana-riding-llama-smiley-em
           
 

Shoe

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2019, 06:36:07 AM »

My first hurricane was Donna in 1960.

Me too (Deerfield Beach). I was seven. Hell of a mess.
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JA Wallace

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2019, 06:38:47 AM »
I have friends in FL who are prepared for the worst. Now I'm hearing it's heading toward the Carolinas (that's me). Stay safe everyone.
 

Vijaya

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2019, 08:55:47 AM »
As I look at the trajectory, I feel like it might be a lot like Matthew. When it hit Charleston, the tide was going out. It's going to be wet.

I saw this today:


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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2019, 09:19:36 AM »
It seems like the Carolinas never get a chance to recover before they get hit again. Hopefully, going through FL and GA will weaken Dorian a whole lot before it hits y'all.

           
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2019, 10:07:12 AM »

My first hurricane was Donna in 1960.

Me too (Deerfield Beach). I was seven. Hell of a mess.

We were in North Dade.

Just saw this:

"Forget the cone. Where is The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore? There are reports on Twitter that the Weather Channel's Jim Cantore is on the ground in West Palm Beach. The Weather Channel's star meteorologist Jim Cantore is still on the ground reporting from Stuart."
           
 

RPatton

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2019, 12:40:48 AM »
Thinking about everyone who might get hit. I have a feeling Tuesday and Wednesday we'll all be refreshing this page checking in on everyone who is checking in.
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2019, 12:56:54 AM »
Dorian has made another slight shift to the west. Looks like maybe Cat 1 winds for my area, but there's still plenty of time for the track to change either way.

Prayers for the Bahamians facing Deadly Dorian at Cat 5.

I've got a weather radio that will charge my phone so I may be able to check in even if the power goes out.
           
 

cecilia_writer

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2019, 05:05:39 AM »
Good luck everyone on that coast. I can't even imagine winds like that.
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twicebitten

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2019, 05:34:35 AM »
Glad you're all prepared anyway. The cone of uncertainty is shifting every few hours, so a direct FL hit is still not out of the question. Dorian is now #5 on most intense hurricanes  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Atlantic_hurricane_records#Most_intense) by central pressure at landfall of the Atlantic hurricanes and tied for #2 (pending verification) on highest sustained winds. You do not want to be in the northern Bahamas right now. :icon_eek:
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2019, 06:23:17 AM »
This hurricane has shifted so many times, I'm completely confused. There should be an advisory in about an hour and hopefully, it'll be good news, or at least okay news for FL.

As for the Bahamas, those northern areas could be completely wiped out. It looks like people (mostly) heeded the evacuation warnings and headed for shelters. Ferries and fishing boats were moving people out of the danger zones since yesterday. But one guy refused to move saying it was his first hurricane and he didn't want to miss it. Reminded me of that idiot that refused to leave his house when Mt. St. Helens erupted.

We still have about half an hour's work to get everything in. Our shutters are up except for the front door. May I say once again, I am so glad I spent the money to get the accordion shutters. They are up permanently and when they are open, it just looks like my window frames are painted white.

I made a sort of litter box for my dog with grass over piddle pads in a two foot square planter. The cat loves it.  :HB
           
 

notthatamanda

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2019, 11:08:00 AM »
I just checked and they are predicting (hoping?) that it will turn at sea and only tropical storm force winds will make land fall.
They are clocking it at 195 mph winds at the center and moving 5 mph west.    That's up around hurricane Andrew.  My mom grew up in Miami,
I saw the devastation a year later, it was shocking how all the vegetation was just gone.  Good luck and I hope it really does turn, back out to sea completely.
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2019, 11:30:35 AM »
I just checked and they are predicting (hoping?) that it will turn at sea and only tropical storm force winds will make land fall.
They are clocking it at 195 mph winds at the center and moving 5 mph west.    That's up around hurricane Andrew.  My mom grew up in Miami,
I saw the devastation a year later, it was shocking how all the vegetation was just gone.  Good luck and I hope it really does turn, back out to sea completely.

Andrew was supposed to come straight down the Dade/Broward county line and that's where I lived. Unbelievable that it made such an abrupt turn to the south. As bad as it was down there, the loss of life and property would have been much greater if Andrew had stayed on course because that area was so much more built up with a much denser population.

Just saw the 8pm update. They'll be updating much more frequently as Dorian gets within our radar. As of that update, South FL will be getting tropical storm winds and Central FL will probably get hurricane winds, but even though Dorian will be a Cat 4 at that time, we'll probably only get Cat 1 winds. There will be some damage but I don't think anything devastating.
           
 

dgcasey

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Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2019, 02:27:17 PM »
As I look at the trajectory, I feel like it might be a lot like Matthew. When it hit Charleston, the tide was going out. It's going to be wet.

I saw this today:


Thanks Vi. That was funny enough I had to go subscribe to their channel. :)

Me? I'd be like Toby Keith.

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VanessaC

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2019, 06:43:46 PM »
Sending my best wishes to everyone affected by Dorian - hope you and your loved ones are, and stay, safe.

Certainly put things into perspective for me - in Scotland it's quite damp and chilly at the moment, and I'm not particularly looking forward to walking the dog just now, but there's absolutely zero danger of the roof blowing off, and I've never needed storm shutters for the windows.
     



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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2019, 11:43:27 PM »
Sending my best wishes to everyone affected by Dorian - hope you and your loved ones are, and stay, safe.

Certainly put things into perspective for me - in Scotland it's quite damp and chilly at the moment, and I'm not particularly looking forward to walking the dog just now, but there's absolutely zero danger of the roof blowing off, and I've never needed storm shutters for the windows.

Ah, Jamie Fraser country!!!   :banana:

I walked the dog this morning. It was a little breezy and a little drizzly but I think that will be his last walk until Dorian passes.

We're under Hurricane Warning until 4pm, which I guess means that's when they expect the bad stuff to start. How bad it will be, nobody seems to know. Now I understand why they call it the Cone of Uncertainty.

Still haven't quite got everything in. Seems never ending. I've already filled up four large trash bags and a trash can with stuff including my little greenhouse. It was rusting out anyway. Two times when we downsize. When we move and when we are battening down for a hurricane.

Whatever happens here, it won't be as bad as the Bahamas. My heart breaks for those people.

           
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #25 on: September 03, 2019, 11:22:50 PM »
Dorian is finally moving at 1mph. Her wind speeds are constantly dropping, too. Those poor folks in the Bahamas need a break.

Our hurricane warning got pushed back from 4pm yesterday to 5:30am today, but since Dorian is just starting to move, they now say we won't feel any effects until 2pm. <sigh>

The good news is that while conditions this morning weren't great, I was able to walk the dog. Not much worse than normal rainy season weather.

           
 

Vijaya

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #26 on: September 04, 2019, 07:34:18 AM »
Maggie Ann, I'm glad the hurricane has been downgraded. I couldn't believe how it parked itself over the Bahamas. Just awful.

dgcasey, my husband is like Toby too.

We are enjoying the calm before the storm. Will button up the porch and sit tight and pray when Dorian arrives.


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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #27 on: September 04, 2019, 07:54:21 AM »
Maggie Ann, I'm glad the hurricane has been downgraded. I couldn't believe how it parked itself over the Bahamas. Just awful.

dgcasey, my husband is like Toby too.

We are enjoying the calm before the storm. Will button up the porch and sit tight and pray when Dorian arrives.

He's a Cat 2 now and I hope he further degrades before he hits your area.

Lots of rain bands and gusty winds hitting FL right now. Nothing right where I am, though. Twenty miles both north and south are right in the path of the bands, but they are missing us and hitting further inland.

I always said my neighborhood was rain repellent. I can turn off the major road with a blinding rainstorm and as soon as I get on the secondary road, it slows down. By the time I get to my street, the rain has stopped. Once in a while we'll have a big boomer, but it rarely lasts. Just long enough to terrify my dog.  :dog1:
           
 

sliderule

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2019, 09:16:02 PM »
Thoughts, warm wishes and prayers for everyone in Dorian's area of influence. Stay safe and dry.
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2019, 10:58:53 PM »
We're under Tropical Storm Warning as of last night, but it seems pretty clear to me this morning. It's a bit breezy and the sky is still pretty dark, but I walked the dog with no problem this morning. Only one other dog walker out and about.

Now to help those poor people in the Bahamas. They are having problems getting boats in because all the waterways and markers have changed. They expect the islands to be surrounded by debris making it hard for any relief by sea. The airport was under five feet of water as of yesterday.
           
 

Vijaya

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #30 on: September 04, 2019, 11:51:35 PM »
We're already getting the first rainbands and the eye isn't even past FL. Time to button up the porch.


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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #31 on: September 05, 2019, 01:00:53 AM »
We're already getting the first rainbands and the eye isn't even past FL. Time to button up the porch.

I hope that's all you get.

 :banana-riding-llama-smiley-em
           
 

Al Stevens

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Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #32 on: September 05, 2019, 07:35:58 AM »
He passed us by. Some rain and wind from the feeder bands, but no damage.
     
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #33 on: September 05, 2019, 11:05:54 AM »
He passed us by. Some rain and wind from the feeder bands, but no damage.

We were lucky. I had a doc appt today and there were some gusts that caught me by surprise, but no rain.
           
 

Jeff Tanyard

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #34 on: September 05, 2019, 03:17:29 PM »
Back up to a Category 3.

On the Doppler, it looks like it's heading right for Charleston.  Everyone thinks it'll turn to the northeast before it gets there, but we all know how much those computer models are worth.  Hang in there, Vijaya!   :icon_eek:
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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #35 on: September 05, 2019, 10:59:37 PM »
Back up to a Category 3.

On the Doppler, it looks like it's heading right for Charleston.  Everyone thinks it'll turn to the northeast before it gets there, but we all know how much those computer models are worth.  Hang in there, Vijaya!   :icon_eek:

Not only has Dorian gotten stronger, he's gotten bigger. At least he's moving a lot faster at 8 mph.

Let us hear from you, Vijaya.
           
 

Vijaya

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2019, 06:11:45 AM »
Glad to hear Maggie and Al fared well. So did we. Praise God! It was a rough night with the house shaking but the water didn't come as high as it did with Irma or Matthew. Of course, downtown flooded as it does every time with heavy rains. It's still very wet and very windy, but tomorrow it will be sunshine. People will be thinking of aid to the harder-hit places. I'm glad Dorian's on its way out but gosh, the eyewall is still hugging the coastline. Doesn't look good for NC. 
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 06:14:09 AM by Vijaya »


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notthatamanda

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2019, 07:51:03 AM »
Glad to hear you are okay.  Sounded like a lot of people without power.
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2019, 11:32:54 AM »
Glad to hear Maggie and Al fared well. So did we. Praise God! It was a rough night with the house shaking but the water didn't come as high as it did with Irma or Matthew. Of course, downtown flooded as it does every time with heavy rains. It's still very wet and very windy, but tomorrow it will be sunshine. People will be thinking of aid to the harder-hit places. I'm glad Dorian's on its way out but gosh, the eyewall is still hugging the coastline. Doesn't look good for NC.

So relieved to hear that.

Yes, I'm definitely donating to the Bahamas Red Cross. Their suffering has just begun.
           
 

Tom Wood

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2019, 11:47:34 AM »
Thoughts and prayers to everyone at risk in Alabama!
 
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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2019, 12:10:01 PM »
Thoughts and prayers to everyone at risk in Alabama!

I forgot about that other storm. Fernand, isn't it? He's going to hit Alabama? I hadn't heard that.
           
 

Jeff Tanyard

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2019, 02:10:51 PM »
Thoughts and prayers to everyone at risk in Alabama!

 :icon_question:

Nothing near Bammer on my map.   :icon_think:


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Lynn

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2019, 03:20:20 PM »
I think the Alabama reference was a political joke. :) If not, then maybe it should have been.

Good luck to anyone still in the path of Dorian. Stay safe!
« Last Edit: September 06, 2019, 03:25:25 PM by Lynn »
Don't rush me.
 
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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2019, 10:08:36 PM »
I can't believe Dorian is still a Cat 3. They expected it to be a Cat 1 by this time.
           
 

Maggie Ann

           
 

WasAnn

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #45 on: September 07, 2019, 11:34:35 AM »
Well...that was fun. Or not. My whole day just eaten up listening to pinecones hit my house. It sounds soooo bad when they hit the roof! The surge was the big thing and I could have gone fishing off my deck.

Sometimes, it doesn't pay to have a house on the bayfront. LOL. But overall, it wasn't so bad. Everyone else do okay?


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Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #46 on: September 07, 2019, 11:54:53 AM »
Well...that was fun. Or not. My whole day just eaten up listening to pinecones hit my house. It sounds soooo bad when they hit the roof! The surge was the big thing and I could have gone fishing off my deck.

Sometimes, it doesn't pay to have a house on the bayfront. LOL. But overall, it wasn't so bad. Everyone else do okay?

But the other 360 days of the year are great!
           
 

notthatamanda

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2019, 10:54:30 PM »
Glad you guys are okay.  Guess we can cross our fingers that this will be the worst one this season.
 

RPatton

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #48 on: September 08, 2019, 09:54:35 AM »
One of the greatest sitcoms and one of the funniest clips. Or at least I think it it is.



Whenever we get a warning or watch siren for tornadoes and I'm in public, I always yell out, "the wall's moved! The wall's moved!"
 

Maggie Ann

Re: Who else is in Dorian's target area (or Cone of Uncertainty)?
« Reply #49 on: September 08, 2019, 10:12:43 AM »
One of the greatest sitcoms and one of the funniest clips. Or at least I think it it is.



Whenever we get a warning or watch siren for tornadoes and I'm in public, I always yell out, "the wall's moved! The wall's moved!"

Well, of course it's funny. It's Johnny Fever! Now I'm going to have to find it on Amazon Prime Video or someplace and watch it. Loved that show.