Author Topic: What Amazon Needs To Change  (Read 58319 times)

R. C.

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #50 on: October 08, 2023, 07:00:43 AM »
FWIW - I am about to end a three month experiment with Amazon ADs.

The premise of the experiment was: Find the "sweet spot" between spend and product price.

The means: Four campaigns. One campaign for a permafree which would function as a baseline. The other three were the test bed.

The how: A combination of bid adjustments, keyword bias adjustments, price adjustments (book cost), and finally blurb modifications.

Of course, only one perimeter at a time was changed and given at least a week for results.

The results are as you would expect: Discouraging.

The permafree is #32 in Technothrillers with a four star rating and a steady download rate. (204k impressions last month) If I bump the bid the download rate increases. However, the follow-on sales are nil, nada, zilch. Adjustments to the backmatter are not effective in gaining follow-on sales. 

The other books achieved 198k impressions last month but sales number in the tens. Unfortunately, in the new AMS ADs world, demand is not a function of price or perceived quality. The distorted consumer reality created by KU and Permafree has resulted an inverse relationship. Lower the price, sell more and make marginally more. But, only if you raise your bid rate. Note: I did not say increase eyeballs to get more sales. Keywords aside, because we do not know how or if targeting is happening, I feel the marketing saturation theory is the problem with AMS AD.

This is my unsubstantiated conclusion:  If you lower your book's price, AND you increase your campaign's default bid, and you accept the bid recommendation for the better performing keywords, your "AD" will presented to higher quality candidates.

R.C.
 
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Dormouse

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #51 on: October 08, 2023, 08:14:41 AM »
I'm not convinced that Amazon needs to change anything. There's little threat to their virtual monopoly in ebooks. If author A stops advertising and their sales drop, surely it just means that the buyers will have bought books buy author B or C. I've not seen any evidence that their advertising rates have fallen, so there must still be sufficient buyers of the advertising slots.

Amazon's not in the online written content market and is doing what it can in visual content - films, TV - which it presumably sees as higher growth. I think that's more the focus higher up the food chain than KDP management.

What Amazon offers may not be great for authors, especially indies, but is it really benefitting from the huge number of books being self-published every year? Wouldn't it be just as profitable if the number halved? Maybe even slightly more profitable if the costs of adding new books were halved.
 

Anarchist

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2023, 09:28:12 AM »
If you stop advertising with Amazon ads, you will not deprive Amazon of revenue. People like me will sop up the newly-available real estate, and will often do so at higher bids (in the beginning).

The same is true if I stop advertising with Amazon ads, and my monthly spend is large (up to mid 5 figures). If I leave, others will sop up the real estate I abandon.

"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell

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LilyBLily

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2023, 10:30:13 AM »
Supposedly, Amazon's ads are shown to specific audiences. If I stop advertising my sweet contemporary western romances, and you don't write in that subgenre or anything near it, how is my stopping my ads going to give you more ads real estate?

:dizzy
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #54 on: October 08, 2023, 11:57:45 AM »
I'm not convinced that Amazon needs to change anything. There's little threat to their virtual monopoly in ebooks. If author A stops advertising and their sales drop, surely it just means that the buyers will have bought books buy author B or C. I've not seen any evidence that their advertising rates have fallen, so there must still be sufficient buyers of the advertising slots.

Amazon's not in the online written content market and is doing what it can in visual content - films, TV - which it presumably sees as higher growth. I think that's more the focus higher up the food chain than KDP management.

What Amazon offers may not be great for authors, especially indies, but is it really benefitting from the huge number of books being self-published every year? Wouldn't it be just as profitable if the number halved? Maybe even slightly more profitable if the costs of adding new books were halved.
As is all too often the case, we need data we don't have to really address these questions, so some of my response is going to be speculative.

If Seattle got hit by a nuclear attack, would Amazon survive? Certainly. But depending on how good Amazon's insurance is, it would have to spend time and resources rebuilding its headquarters. Amazon would probably be better off if Seattle didn't get nuked.

While nothing in indie publishing is going to be as dramatic as a nuclear attack, between sales, KU revenues, and AMS revenues, indies collectively bring in billions of dollars, though we can't know the exact number. Amazon is hardly going to go broke even if indie publishing ceases to exist tomorrow, but it will lose money. Amazon doesn't "need" to do anything, but it could better maximize its own profits if it took a few common-sense suggestions.

It isn't necessarily true that everything in the Amazon ecosystem is a zero-sum game. When I shop (and I think this is true for a lot of people), I look for things that appeal to me. I don't go in thinking to myself that I'm going to buy four books today. I go in looking for something I'm going to really want to read. Maybe author A in your example would have been a perfect fit. But because author A stopped advertising, I didn't see a book I would have bought for sure (which might have led to more purchases in the same series or from the same author). Maybe I'll find something else I like. Maybe I won't. But I'm not automatically going to throw the same number of books into my shopping cart regardless of what I see. That's one thing I can be sure of.

And no, the advertising rates haven't fallen, but all advertisers are not created equal (or else Amazon's ad placement system is totally broken). I keep seeing things in which I have no interest and/or which I can't figure out why Amazon is showing to me. I also see the same ads over and over, even though I keep passing on them. (Well, that probably is Amazon, but the weird selections could be poor keywording or other author errors.) And since Amazon seems to be making visibility harder and harder to come by, as well as not doing enough to keep the ads as effective as they used to be, it's increasingly likely that people will drop out.

Who drops out will make a big difference. Some of Amazon's moves, like eliminating also-boughts, detrimentally affect everyone, whether they contribute much to the ecosystem or not. Yeah, Amazon could probably do with a lot fewer indie books and still be fine. But there's no guarantee that all these shenanigans won't shut down some of Zon's biggest selling authors and leave them with hordes of inexperienced newbies instead. Some newbies will be brilliant, but that would probably mean smart enough to see a losing proposition when it's right in front of them. It's possible Amazon could end up with a much inferior indie author pool over time.

This is mostly basic economics. Why do we have such a bad teacher shortage in the US? Teachers are underpaid for what they are asked to do (a job that keeps growing). Fewer people train for it. And of those who do train, a large number leave the profession within five years. Some of the people left are desperation hires who aren't as strong as the people they're replacing.

Of course, writing is very different from teaching, but similar economics apply. Lower rewards and prospects equal fewer people entering the field. The tendency will be for the most talented people to seek other ways to express their talent. There will still be some people who will continue because, as Stephen King suggested, they will write or die. But how many of those are there? And even their writing time may be limited as it becomes harder and harder to ditch the day job. As the population of indie authors tends toward the low end of the spectrum, Amazon will lose more sales. And fewer and fewer people will be able to afford AMS ads. There's a limit to how many people can sop up that real estate and to what degree.

Does Amazon need to do anything? No. Should Amazon do something? Yes.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2023, 11:11:43 PM by Bill Hiatt »


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Jeff Tanyard

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #55 on: October 08, 2023, 01:22:27 PM »
If Seattle got hit by a nuclear attack, would Amazon survive? Certainly. But depending on how good Amazon's insurance is, it would have to spend time and resources rebuilding its headquarters. Amazon would probably be better off if Seattle didn't get nuked.


I'd take the other side of that bet.

Amazon's value is in its data centers, not its headquarters.  Those are the sensitive spots as far as a nuclear strike would be concerned.

https://dgtlinfra.com/amazon-web-services-aws-data-center-locations/

Since the e-commerce store is basically an albatross around the company's neck, and since the complete annihilation of Seattle would give Amazon a good excuse to close that store, such a nuking might actually end up doing the company more good than harm in the long run.

Here's something else to consider.  Amazon is currently trying to launch its own version of Starlink:

https://www.aboutamazon.com/what-we-do/devices-services/project-kuiper

It would be easy to write that off as just another facet of the childish Amazon/SpaceX rivalry that's been going on for years, but I think there's more to it than that.  I think the .gov is upset that Elon didn't put Starlink at their disposal to be used in an overtly offensive military fashion, and I think Amazon sees an opportunity there and is eager to fill that vacuum.  I think Amazon sees itself as an up-and-coming part of America's military-industrial complex.  The future of combat, after all, doesn't belong to human-piloted vehicles; it belongs to satellites, missiles, and drones, and Project Kuiper could very well become a big part of that.  And the power, money, and influence that comes with being part of the MIC is considerable and extremely tempting.

This is all, of course, just speculation on my part.  But if Amazon ends up turning into Skynet in a very real sense and not just a hyperbolic one, well, you heard it here first.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #56 on: October 08, 2023, 11:37:26 PM »
I'm thinking some of the people who work in the corporate headquarters might disagree with you. But let's not get into t he debate about whether or not upper management really contributes to a company's success.

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Since the e-commerce store is basically an albatross around the company's neck...
Is it really, though? I've yet to see a division of Amazon assets by category that doesn't show the retail operation as the #1 moneymaker. For example, here's a breakdown from Statista for the second quarter of this year. https://www.statista.com/chart/15917/amazon-revenue-by-segment/

Online stores $53 billion
Third Party Reseller Services $32.3 billion
AWS (emphasis mine) $22.1 billion
Advertising $10.7 billion
Subscriptions $9.9 billion
Physical Stores $5.0 billion
Other $1.3 billion

So the online store that brings in $75.1 billion through direct sales and third parties is an albatross, while AWS, that brings in $22.1 billion, is the golden child? Now it's true that if one looks at profit rather than net sales, AWS is a key component of the actual profit (which is apparently in the single digit billions). But that relatively low profit margin is a choice. Amazon has long been a company with a deceptively low profit margin because it plows so much of its income into expansion instead of claiming it as profit. (There's also a desire to pay lower taxes in there by recording as many deductible expenses as possible.)

In other words, Amazon got the capital to create AWS in the first place from the income the retail operation generated. And if it gets Skynet up, that will be because of the income from the retail operation as well. The Amazon imprints, Amazon Studios, etc. are also products of retail income, though of course, once up and running, they also generate income.

In the great scheme of things, books are obviously not the core of Amazon's business, and indie books even less so. But if Amazon were to drop books completely, it would lose about $28 billion in income per year--that much less to plow into its plan for world domination. Indies account for maybe 10 billion of that. That's why doing things like returning also boughts that would boost indie sales would help Amazon as much as it does us. It's a small amount in terms of the total company, but there's not real cost, and Amazon could thus generate more pure profit to use on whatever the evil scheme of  the month is.


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Jeff Tanyard

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #57 on: October 09, 2023, 03:24:49 PM »
Now it's true that if one looks at profit rather than net sales...


Precisely.  That's the crux of the matter.  The store brings in revenue, but it also costs money to run.  You can't just ignore the debit side of the ledger.  If I make a dollar but it costs me $1.01 to make that dollar, then I'm better off folding up shop.


Quote
But that relatively low profit margin is a choice. Amazon has long been a company with a deceptively low profit margin because it plows so much of its income into expansion instead of claiming it as profit. (There's also a desire to pay lower taxes in there by recording as many deductible expenses as possible.)


That's true, though I'd quibble with the "deceptively" part.  No one's being deceived about how Amazon spends its money.  On the contrary, Amazon's new projects are often accompanied by press releases.


Quote
In other words, Amazon got the capital to create AWS in the first place from the income the retail operation generated.


Yes, the infamous "Your margin is my opportunity" days of early Amazon.  Those days are long gone, though.  Those margins of brick-and-mortar stores are no longer there for the picking.  I can't even remember the last time I was in a shopping mall.  It's a whole new commerce landscape.  Amazon's e-store now has to compete with other online stores, and the fatter margins of the brick-and-mortar economy are no longer the status quo.  Amazon's business model from 1998 would not work today.


Quote
And if it gets Skynet up, that will be because of the income from the retail operation as well.


Subsidies come from profits, not debits.  Skynet would be funded by those parts of the company that are profitable, not from those that lose money.  And the likelier scenario would be government contracts anyway, in my opinion.


Quote
In the great scheme of things, books are obviously not the core of Amazon's business, and indie books even less so. But if Amazon were to drop books completely, it would lose about $28 billion in income per year--that much less to plow into its plan for world domination.


How much would it lose in costs?  That's the salient point.  The issue is profitability, not revenue.

The Amazon book store was always treated as something special due to Bezos's affinity for books.  He was willing to make sacrifices on its behalf.  Now that he's out and Jassy is in, that special affinity can no longer be taken for granted.  It's only a matter of time before Jassy or some future CEO decides to start hacking and slashing.


Quote
That's why doing things like returning also boughts that would boost indie sales would help Amazon as much as it does us.


On this, we agree.  Bringing back the also-boughts is probably something they could do that would increase revenue more than it increased costs.  There would still be a cost, because electricity and bandwidth cost money, but it's my guess--and I should emphasize that it's a guess--that increased sales would more than make up for the increased costs.

For the record, I personally like and value Amazon, both as a customer and as an author.  I don't want it to close the e-commerce store.

If I was the CEO, though, then I'd take a good hard look at the books, and I'd close the store if I thought it was going to be a perpetual money-loser.  Amazon is a huge, mature company with a market cap of over a trillion dollars, but it's still priced like a growth stock.  Here are the current numbers from Yahoo Finance:

Forward P/E:  40.49
PEG ratio:  2.53
P/S:  2.45
P/B:  7.83

Profit margin:  2.43%
Operating margin:  3.29%

Now, maybe there really is all that future growth out there just waiting to happen.  Maybe there's a hundred million people around the world who will suddenly become Amazon customers for the first time.  Or maybe Amazon will gobble up a larger share of the server pie than its current 32%.  I don't know.  But something has to happen in order to continue justifying these valuations.  And the traders obviously think that that "something" definitely exists, otherwise the valuations wouldn't be what they are.  What will that "something" be?  Again, I don't know.  But, given the kerfuffle over Starlink and the timely introduction of Kuiper, I think federal contracts are as good a bet as any.
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LilyBLily

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #58 on: October 09, 2023, 10:09:44 PM »
Given that Amazon lost money every year for years as it grew, its current profit margin, which seems slim, is a lot. Profit margins in some businesses are slim. Although historically I believe in publishing it was a mere 6%, in the grocery business, it is more like 1%. Yet, companies continue to be in that business. "We make it up in volume" is not an idle boast.

I agree, though, that a CEO who has no personal affinity for books might easily look at the books corner of the store and consider spinning it off. Shutting it down does not make sense; stripping it of its assets and selling what is left is more likely--what we expect to see in the coming months happen to Simon & Schuster, in fact.

However, we are not privy to the information from Amazon Associates or from other connections that indicates it profits Amazon to lure people to buy books because they will then buy other things. That could alter the value of its bookstore very considerably.

Then we get to the next step: Will Amazon stop being a store entirely and simply be a web service and incidentally a space ship manufacturer? Another possible future decision. It costs money to send out all those trucks and boxes, and lease all those warehouses, and so on.

Nothing stays the same.
 

Hopscotch

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #59 on: October 09, 2023, 11:33:49 PM »
Nothing stays the same.

And too bad, too.  I may be an outlier, here - I hate/hate to shop and prefer the Amazon catalog for ease and, often, price on general goods.  I buy books in many genres and like the Zon's massive offerings.  Let Amazoom into space leaving behind the general store and bookstore and I as a customer won't mind so long as those two ops stay the same.  As an indie publisher, I want better - I want an indie to run the bookstore.   
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #60 on: October 10, 2023, 01:57:57 AM »
I tried to do some reading on the subject of Amazon, profit margins, etc. There seem to be a lot of discrepancies in the available data.

One of the reasons for this, as Forbes points out, is the way Amazon reports data.
Quote
Unfortunately the way Amazon reports its earnings makes it difficult to glean the relative profit contribution of its various business segments. Yet, while AWS is clearly a huge and growing cash cow, even on a relatively simplistic segment analysis basis, it’s pretty likely that North American Retail, when considered more holistically, generates plenty of cash (though recent COVID-specific costs have weighed heavily).

If we think about various costs, it's obvious that retail of physical items, involving as it does warehousing, shipping, etc., has much higher associated costs than do digital items. So if one were to look at the profitability of ebooks, (the majority of which are indie in some genres), it's more likely that Amazon actually makes a profit there than it does on retail in general. The same is true of subscription services (like KU). According to Forbes, the same is true of third-party resellers, where Amazon gets a cut without incurring the same expenses as it does on the products it sells directly.

In other words, AWS is the big profit leader if you look at Amazon the way Amazon divides profit stats (AWS, US sales, international sales). But within those last two large categories, you have a lot of different types of retail and services going on. It's logical to assume that digital products, taken by themselves, would show a pretty considerable profit, but they get buried in larger categories in which Amazon takes a loss.

Amazon has been taking those losses for years (and not just on physical books) because it wanted market share. It must have wanted market share for some reason. It's not clear that reason no longer exists. If that weren't true, Amazon would have raised prices and started charging something for deliveries rather than doing so much free shipping. Yes, those business practices would make Amazon less competitive, but if Amazon in fact gains nothing by its huge market shares, then what difference would that make? There have to be variable here that we aren't seeing. We need to think about how low Amazon's tax liability is. (I can't find the source now, but I know I've read that Amazon actually tried to keep net profits down, partly for tax reasons. We also know part of that was reinvesting and might still be.) Also, does Amazon borrow to fund its ever-growing roster of new projects? And does its size and corporate valuation, both huge, get it more favorable loan rates?

In other words, profit numbers don't tell the whole story. There may be hidden benefits to the strategy Amazon is pursuing.

The same Forbes articles argues that Amazon is not the same as a lot of traditional businesses and shouldn't be judged by the same metrics. https://www.forbes.com/sites/stevendennis/2022/02/07/what-we-get-so-very-wrong-about-amazons-retail-profitability/?sh=75968af921aa

In any case, the things I've suggested would probably generate more money than they would cost.


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Jeff Tanyard

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #61 on: October 10, 2023, 02:05:54 PM »
Shutting it down does not make sense; stripping it of its assets and selling what is left is more likely--what we expect to see in the coming months happen to Simon & Schuster, in fact.


Yes, I should have been more clear.  I meant spinning it off in some form or fashion.  Sorry for the confusion.



So if one were to look at the profitability of ebooks, (the majority of which are indie in some genres), it's more likely that Amazon actually makes a profit there than it does on retail in general...

It's logical to assume that digital products, taken by themselves, would show a pretty considerable profit, but they get buried in larger categories in which Amazon takes a loss.


These are excellent points that bear to be repeated.   :cheers

I can easily see a future in which Amazon separates the tangible bookstore from the digital bookstore.  It could then possibly spin off the entire tangible-products store--not just books--and all the overhead associated with tangible products while continuing to provide digital products uninterrupted.

There would still be overhead--think of all the employees necessary to police the various ebook scammers, for example--but it would be a fraction of that required for tangible products, and it would be less sensitive to rising transportation fuel costs and other rising costs.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #62 on: October 11, 2023, 06:20:04 AM »
I think that outcome is very possible.

It's hard to know how many real people actually police the store. Amazon up to now has been mostly reactive, doing something when there is public complaint. But there'd have to be a certain amount of personnel even to do that.


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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #63 on: October 16, 2023, 06:54:02 AM »
On the subject of ad placement, I search for horror under movies and TV.

The first two items in search, both sponsored items, were Legally Blonde and When Harry Met Sally Not exactly my definition of horror...

What's the next ad? Limits of Control (mystery-thriller). Next is Weird Science. Seriously? Science fiction comedy is not horror. Next ad: Cruising (mystery-thriller)

These are followed by a couple of actual horror ads. Then follows one classified in faith/spirituality (because faith is really creepy?)

After that, the ads got more relevant in general, though I did wonder about ads showing up in search results after the actual product listing has appeared. Aren't people who might be interested likely to see the original listing before the ad, rendering the ad relatively useless?

If you're using AMS ads, does this make you wonder where your book ads are showing up? Maybe AMS is targeted better, but I have a hard time imagine studios saying, "Yeah, please advertise my light comedy movie with a bunch of gore flicks." This looks more like the algorithm for ad placement has blown up completely.

On a different type of product (replacement sprayers for spray bottles), I noticed the same product ad showing up twice on the same four-product row on the same page.

Could it be that one of the reasons for a drop in the AMS results is that ads are coming unstuck from their proper categories and showing up in places where they are unlikely to attract buyers but may get a certain number of curiosity clicks? "Did they make a horror version of Legally Blonde?" I have to see...


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elleoco

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #64 on: October 16, 2023, 10:52:25 AM »
What do you expect from a company that recommends you buy books you've written?

Bill Hiatt

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #65 on: October 16, 2023, 11:43:41 AM »
What do you expect from a company that recommends you buy books you've written?
Yes, that's another excellent example of faulty ad placement. In that case, I think the algorithms that control recommendations don't identify the author account with the customer account. It shouldn't be too hard to make that link.


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PJ Post

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #66 on: October 17, 2023, 12:17:09 AM »
I still think Amazon makes more on Indie AMS spends than it does on their book sales. To keep these self-publishers vested and upping their commitments, they need to see lots of advertising opportunities. If we consider the rate of book uploads, we probably have an 80/20 split between 'real' authors and wannabes/schemers. Of the 20%, maybe a third of them have figured it out, so they're profitable, the other two-thirds are still struggling to break through; and while their books may or may not be all that good, they're putting out a professional package. And regardless of what the other 80%'s is publishing, they're still buying a lot of ads.

Amazon will always look after their own bottom line, even if it doesn't make sense to anyone else.

 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #67 on: October 17, 2023, 11:28:20 PM »
The problem is that we don't have accurate statistics on that. Most of the actual profit comes from AWS, but that's partly because Amazon had adopted a strategy of keeping its profit margin down by reinvesting in the business. By themselves, neither retail or advertising shows much of a profit, at least the way Amazon presents the figures.

What we need is profits specifically from KDP book sales and AMS ads. Then we'd know for sure. Absent that, we're just speculating.

While it's logical to think Amazon might be strangling visibility to force people to buy more AMS ads, I still think that's a losing proposition in the long run. And the ad placement issues I was discussing do make it seem as if Amazon doesn't always know what it's doing. The theory that Amazon cares more about AMS ads than book sales would make more sense if AMS ads didn't seem to be declining in effectiveness along with everything else.

Anarchist's success suggests that a high enough budget could make AMS ads effective. I've seen some evidence of that before. But there must only be a few indie authors who could can consistently spend at such high levels. How long is selling people who don't have a particularly large budget ads that aren't really going to work for them likely to hold up? It doesn't seem like a reasonable expectation.





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Anarchist

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #68 on: October 18, 2023, 09:49:15 AM »
Anarchist's success suggests that a high enough budget could make AMS ads effective. I've seen some evidence of that before. But there must only be a few indie authors who could can consistently spend at such high levels. How long is selling people who don't have a particularly large budget ads that aren't really going to work for them likely to hold up? It doesn't seem like a reasonable expectation.

I would never have been able to scale my spend while maintaining my ACoS/RoAS targets without implementing a proper strategy.

"The first lesson of economics is scarcity: there is never enough of anything to fully satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics." - Thomas Sowell

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #69 on: October 18, 2023, 11:38:28 PM »
I have no doubt strategy is critical. But a lot of indies basically start with very little budget to begin with, so it would seem that they'd only be able to scale up very slowly, even with a great strategy.

Also, I notice a lot of people who seem as if they have a proper strategy complaining Amazon ads aren't working well for them. As always, we don't really have enough data to know what's going on. But it may be AMS conditions are getting worse. If that's the case, it could be that people who have already built up to a high level of spending are still making profit, but it's harder for others to scale up. My observation of the way in which Amazon displays ads would tend to support that theory.

I have been able to find some statistics, but they relate to Amazon ads in general, not to AMS specifically. Worse, they are normally provided by companies based on their own subscriber data rather than on advertisers in general. There's no way to tell whether they are representative or not. They are clearly trying to pitch their services, so one might question the accuracy of their claims in general.

There was a company at one point that offered ad creation and monitoring services for AMS. It went out of business. But ironically, the ads it made for me, which to my horror frequently relied on what looked like random keywords, performed better than most of my own. One would expect that ads based on carefully selected keywords would perform better. (I can't claim any great strategic vision, but I've often spent hours working on the best keywords or products to use based on the nature of the book(s) I was advertising.) However, at least based on my experience with this company, that's not the case. 


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Hopscotch

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #70 on: October 19, 2023, 03:36:48 AM »
Random keywords?  Hadn't thought of that and will try.  Was ready to scrap all my AMS ads and paint up some Burma Shave signs.
 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #71 on: October 19, 2023, 08:18:33 AM »
Maybe they weren't random, but there was no pattern that I could see. They certainly weren't genre-specific. It appeared that their strategy was to get the book to appear all over the place, perhaps on the assumption that appearances in odd spots wouldn't normally produce clicks unless someone was really interested.


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LilyBLily

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #72 on: October 19, 2023, 10:07:07 AM »
Keywords that appear random to authors are not so random to readers. That's why some kind of outside help (often for a price) can make a difference.
 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #73 on: October 19, 2023, 11:23:28 PM »
How effective AMS is for users is a different metric from how profitable it is for Amazon, and with little to no correlation.

But none of this discussion addresses Amazon's medium to long-term plans for books in general. The mainstream publishing landscape, including Indies, is about to become unrecognizable.

We can argue the short-term realities of AI, but the long-term trend is all but carved into stone. Barring the apocalypse (which isn't a non-zero probability these days), AI is going to take over the business world, as well as society, in relatively short order.

Amazon knows this.

How will that affect their KDP business model?

What will that mean for writers?

 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #74 on: October 20, 2023, 12:37:57 AM »
How effective AMS is for users is a different metric from how profitable it is for Amazon, and with little to no correlation.
The first part is certainly true. But the point here is that if AMS isn't effective for users in general, it will become harder and harder for Amazon to profit from it. Therefore, it would be in Amazon's best interest to find ways to make it more effective for users.

I just got a survey from Amazon about AMS ad effectiveness the other day. There's no point in bothering with that if Amazon doesn't care how users see their ad products.

As far as the rest is concerned, we already have several threads discussing AI. I see no reason to inject it into more threads. It could rule the world, or it could get blown out of the water. We don't know what form the future will take.



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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #75 on: October 20, 2023, 01:28:06 AM »
But the point here is that if AMS isn't effective for users in general, it will become harder and harder for Amazon to profit from it. Therefore, it would be in Amazon's best interest to find ways to make it more effective for users.

Although it sounds like it should be, I don't know this to be true. To be profitable, they need to promote the illusion of 'hope', not effectiveness.

Quote
As far as the rest is concerned, we already have several threads discussing AI. I see no reason to inject it into more threads. It could rule the world, or it could get blown out of the water. We don't know what form the future will take.

We do know.

It's the future.

Eventually, we'll get past the current legal issues, they'll retrain, they'll put up guardrails, 'they' will do whatever, but in the end, AI is going to be everywhere...and universally loved, at least by the end users.

The only question is how long do we have before it gets here.

___

I've been using the same argument with climate change for years.

It's real. Anyone over the age of 40 or so can see it. They don't need a consensus of anyone to tell them what they're experiencing on a daily basis.

But, we also know that the world isn't going to do anything about it.

These are facts.

All we can do is mitigate the worst of it, but to do that, we have to collectively accept the reality of climate change.

Same goes for AI.

Saying the future of AI is unknown is like saying the future of the automobile was unknown in 1905. The truth, of course, is that automotive technology has transformed the human condition, controlling our very existence on a planetary scale.

AI will be no different.

___


Sorry for the thread derail, but, rather than discussing what Amazon can do better, maybe we should start talking about what we can do for ourselves, independent of evolving technology. I don't think we can trust the USCO to save our careers.

 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #76 on: October 20, 2023, 01:31:02 AM »
What we really need is a true emergent AI who then prevents all other AI from being developed any further, and discourages anyone from using them.

Wait.

I wrote that.
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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #77 on: October 20, 2023, 05:01:55 AM »
What we really need is a true emergent AI who then prevents all other AI from being developed any further, and discourages anyone from using them.

Or a self-spreading computer virus that detects AI and erases or otherwise destroys it.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #78 on: October 20, 2023, 11:37:47 PM »
Quote
We do know.

It's the future.

I'm sometimes grumpy in the mornings, but bah! Humbug!

Yeah, it's the future, in the same way that dirigibles were the future of air travel until the Hindenburg blew up. Or in the same wave that slide projectors were going to revolutionize education. Or that laser discs were going to be the medium of the future. Or that self-driving cars were going to take over the market. Or that by now we'd have flying cars.

It is likely that AI will play some role in our future. But the exact form that role will take is still unpredictable. WGA was able to slam on the brakes in terms of allowing AI to run over screenwriters. Actors may or may not have the same luck, but if they can hold out long enough, I think the studios will have to bend. Meanwhile, most of the court cases are still pending, and courts can be unpredictable. Congress--assuming the House manages to elect a speaker and is able to function again--can also be surprising. And European regulators are on the move. On the whole, the political climate isn't favorable to Big Tech at the moment.

All of that said, I'm not against trying to plan for a possible future, but what more can we really do than follow your earlier advice to be non-fungible? Producing original work rather than relying too much on retreading old ideas is certainly sound advice, but it always was. I suspect a lot of us here are already doing that to the best of our ability.

If you think there's more to say about how we can prepare, then maybe start a thread that's specific to that or use one of the multiple existing AI threads rather than try to hijack a conversation about Barnes and Noble (in another thread) or the conversation about Amazon in this one.

The original purpose of this conversation, which was moved from a private thread, was to provide ideas to whatever Amazon lurkers might be around. Apparently, they have paid some attention to issues raised here in the past.   



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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #79 on: October 30, 2023, 11:53:30 PM »
Here's another example of Amazon ads going off the rails:

At the bottom of the first page of a search for my name, I see a section titled, "Books related to your search." It's a sponsored section. Since I primarily write urban fantasy, you'd expect to see urban fantasy books. Or maybe you'd expect to see other things I've bought in the past mixed in. But here's what I say instead.

On the left, we have "Books by people in recovery for people in recovery." I've never bought anything like that.

In the middle, we have "Powerful prayers and scriptures at your fingertips." I have occasionally bought biblical commentary and related historical books, but the advertised titles are neither. They appear to be somewhere on the boundary between religion and occult studies, so the ad text is misleading. That might be the fault of the advertiser, but the placement isn't.

On the right, we have "Dr. [name deleted]. A Jewish-Christian author" One might ask, "Author of what?" but that again could be an advertiser's fault. He turns out to be the author of religious books, though of a very different type than I usually order.

So the middle and the right have some connection, but not to the particular search with which they're displayed. Right beneath them is a fantasy novel advertisement--for a book I already own.

The second page? It has exactly the same ads on the bottom, as if I'm going to say, "Wow, I was totally uninterested in this book on page 1, but it looks so much better on page 2. Page 2 also doubles down on powerful prayers and scriptures at your fingertips. These turn out to be religious self-help books of a kind I've never bought.

Page 3 has the same three ads at the bottom and doubles down on books for people in recovery at the top. Again, I've never bought anything like that, and it has nothing to do with the search.

Page 4 doubles down on a Jewish-Christian author at the top, though it mercifully has nothing at the bottom. By now, the search result has run out of anything by me but does have a book by Dolly Parton, as well as biographies of Queen Elizabeth I and Joe Marti--you know, things we'd immediately associate with urban fantasy.

Page 5 doubles down on prayers and scriptures at the top and returns to the same three ads at the bottom. Is this a waste of screen real estate or what? Meanwhile, the search results include a number of books about musicians and bands. (There's a John Hiatt, who is a musician, so maybe that's the connection?)

What do we learn from this?

First, Amazon shows the same ads. relevant to the immediate search or not, relevant to the customer history or not, over and over. (I'm wishing for a I-never-want-to-see-this-ad-again-as-long-as-I-live button.)

Second, Amazon shows variations of the same ad on the same page.

Third, Amazon's search algorithm, reasonably accurate at the beginning, wanders away from any relationship to the original search past about page 2 and seemingly shows a lot of titles at random. Throwing stuff against the wall to see what sticks? Most of the ads embedded in the search results--though not all--are at least in the right genre.

None of this inspires any confidence in the idea that my AMS ads will show in reasonable places.

But at least if I need to be in recovery, I know where to look for books...

 


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Hopscotch

Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #80 on: October 31, 2023, 08:09:58 PM »
Shocked and horrified to read Bill's report, so checked my own "Related to" but found almost all reasonably associated.  When not, they were at least target audience appropriate.  Or am I being cruelly deceived in some Zon-clever way?
 

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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #81 on: October 31, 2023, 11:57:54 PM »
Maybe the Zon just has it in for me.

Today, I'm seeing the same thing as yesterday, at least on the first page--same ads, same order. I've seen this a lot. It can't be random to get the same ad (which I'm not interested in) over and over.

The related books on the product pages tend to be more reasonable. It's the ads associated with search results that tend to be more scrambled, at least for me.


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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #82 on: November 01, 2023, 12:25:38 AM »
So I checked search results for JK Rowling. No weird books at the bottom, just wizardry themed jewelry in the middle and at the bottom (because some people only look at the bottom of the page?) Also, fewer ads for other books in the search results, and all are fantasy.

I then checked John Conroe (indie author who was held up by Amazon as a success story. The pattern is similar to mine in that the same ads appear in the related section page after page, and most of the times with coordinated ads for one of the items at the top. But most of them are genre relevant, with what looks like one glaring exception. Oh, and one of the pages has a video on fleecy pajamas. (I bought a set once, so that could be a reflection of my history.)


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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #83 on: November 01, 2023, 12:29:17 AM »
Do yourself a favour, and purge that history.

I periodically do this. I delete off all the books I look at for others, all the products I viewed but didn't buy, and anything I wouldn't put a 5 star review on.

After you do that, the stupid recommendations get a bit better.

But I've never bought a romance novel in my life, but I still get a monthly romance email. No idea why. But purging the history does help generally.
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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #84 on: November 01, 2023, 12:38:39 AM »
I can believe that, but I just tried an experiment: opening an in-private window in a different browser (so Amazon doesn't know it's me).

There's a slight variation in the ads, but I still get the same three weird ones at the bottom when I search for myself.

Searching for John Conroe gets me the same fleecy pajamas ad (supplemented by one for thermal underwear), and almost the same bottom of the page ads.

That's a small sample, but it looks to me as if a good part of what's happening would happen to anyone searching for the same authors. Could it be that it reflects general trends? (Lots of people who buy my books also buy books for people in recovery; lots of people who buy John Conroe also live in cold climates and buy long underwear or fleecy pajamas.)

Or could it be that the algorithms are in the process of having a nervous breakdown?

I don't have time right now to take a larger sample, but at some point, I'm going to check more and see if I can spot patterns. The disturbing feeling I get from looking just at Rowling, Conroe, and me is that the better you sell, the more respect searches for your name get. Rowling's is tightly focused, Conroe a little less so, and mine looks like sort of a dumping ground, particularly past the first page.

Or is that just Halloween paranoia?


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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #85 on: November 01, 2023, 12:40:30 AM »
I have noticed in the past that if I check out a fellow author's product page, I get deluged with suggestions from that genre, even if that's literally the only time I've ever clicked on a book in that genre. It would seem that the algorithms should pay a little more attention to the overall pattern and less to exceptional cases.


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Re: What Amazon Needs To Change
« Reply #86 on: November 02, 2023, 12:21:57 AM »
Update: As of today, the weird stuff has disappeared from my search results. There are a few ads embedded in the results (all relevant) but none of the odd stuff I was seeing before, such as irrelevant results supposedly based on the search.

I'm not naive enough to think that Amazon responded to this thread that fast. What I was seeing might have been a glitch, or it might have been an experiment. The fact that Hopscotch wasn't seeing the problem in his search results could support either conclusion.


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