Author Topic: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.  (Read 20627 times)

R. C.

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We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« on: August 15, 2025, 11:06:59 PM »
Here's one link to the article: Microsoft researchers have revealed the 40 jobs most exposed to AI. Here's another link to a review.

There are tons of "takes" on the results of the study, and I read too many. The one takeaway I'll begin with is: Apparently, MS tried to filter student requests for writing help from the analysis.  I hope that is true. Wait, I hope that's false and the results are skewed by student requests.

Shock: #5 in the top forty AI hit list - Writers and Authors

Yep, you read that correctly. The MS study of 200k AI inquiries says we are being replaced.

Enough of the doom and gloom. What does it mean? Here's my simplistic opinion. AI "writing stories' is accelerating the decline in consumer willingness to purchase stories.  'Zon's dominance of the digital market has suppressed prices and inserted new barriers to entry. "Free" is the new normal. At least two generations have grown into the mindset of "A browser can give me whatever I need." As those of us who understand the value of a good story age out, the replacement population is at the keyboard asking AI for information and entertainment.

"Don't care how I want it now. I want it now. I want the world. I want the whole world. I want to lock it all up in my pocket. It's my bar of chocolate. Give it to me now."  - Paraphrased from Varuca Salt in Charly and the Chocolate Factory.

Fire away, I'll add the one-star reviews to my growing collection.

R.C.

 

TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #1 on: August 15, 2025, 11:17:15 PM »
That's 10 years out of date, and nothing at all to do with AI.

The eroding of the willingness to pay for stories began with the 2.99 price point, then the 1.99 special, the 99c promotion, and then the permafree. Followed by the free promotion.

There are over 15 million free books on Amazon, and no-one knows how many there actually are, because the ranks stop before 16 million.

The read for free thing began a long long time ago.

The AI thing happening now isn't going to change that.

The thing is, no Bot story gets past 15k without repeating itself.

And yet, the growth area of eBooks is the never ending story.

That's where the money is if you can get an audience together to get a big enough spike for each launch.

Until the Bots can write 5 million words that don't repeat anything and hold the reader's interest the whole way along, then they're no threat to those who can.

Besides, the people who want things for free were not paying for them anyway, so we're not losing anything by them going Bot drek.

That kind of study looks to me like yet another doom story coming out of Trad land.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #2 on: August 15, 2025, 11:22:05 PM »
In some ways, I think nonfiction writers may be more at risk. A lot of the basic info people want is freely available on the internet.

Fiction is trickier. AI might be able to produce formulaic fiction (with some human help at this point), but it's not going to do anything innovative at all. But I suppose we'll see.

Having seen Timothy's comment, I agree. Free has been there for a long time. And if I stumble upon a $0.99 box set and buy it, Amazon shows me dozens of $0.99 box sets in the same genre. I've also seen an increase in whole novels being used as reader magnets on BookFunnel. It used to mostly be shorts or previews of longer works.

Of course, then there's the Audible mess...


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Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #3 on: August 16, 2025, 12:04:23 AM »
If "free" is the new norm and fewer and fewer people are going to be willing to pay for stories, perhaps the solution is to find alternative ways to get paid for writing "free" fiction . . .
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 
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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #4 on: August 16, 2025, 12:14:14 AM »
If "free" is the new norm and fewer and fewer people are going to be willing to pay for stories, perhaps the solution is to find alternative ways to get paid for writing "free" fiction . . .

It's not the new norm.
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PJ Post

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2025, 01:15:17 AM »
To survive, Creatives need to diversify their revenue streams: Amazon, wide, magazines, Substack, Patreon, social media, YouTube, Crowdfunding, merchandise, courses, endorsements, speaking engagements, cons - whatever fits your brand - or brands.

The bottom line: as long as you continue to have something to say as a writer, you'll have the opportunity to earn a living - if you take advantage of the available tools.

There may be a few outliers that survive without diversification - those that have hit critical mass, for example - but not many. Audiences just don't appreciate Art like they used to. People are reading less and less all the time. The pie is shrinking. And the hard truth is that AI is good enough for most of them.

 

TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2025, 01:27:19 AM »
People are reading less and less all the time. The pie is shrinking.

That's Trad talk.

Their market share IS shrinking. The market itself, is not.

But their statistics are highly inaccurate, because Amazon produces no statistics, and most eBook's don't have an ISBN. So as much as more than 50% of the sales and full reads are not in the statistics anyone sees.

Every time I see this 'people are reading less and less' thing, it's from a Trad author, who's being shafted by their publisher on Amazon.

What I look at are top 100 lists, and the number of Indie authors who release monthly, and have series now well past 20 novels, and only going up.

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Lorri Moulton

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2025, 02:13:08 AM »
Here's a question I have about AI books.  How will they get any more visibility than we do?

Unless it's a publisher with a LOT of money for ads (and that was happening with ghost writers) how is this going to change self-publishing? 

We've been overwhelmed by millions of books for a long time...and we're still here.


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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2025, 02:19:33 AM »
Here's a question I have about AI books.  How will they get any more visibility than we do?

Unless it's a publisher with a LOT of money for ads (and that was happening with ghost writers) how is this going to change self-publishing? 

We've been overwhelmed by millions of books for a long time...and we're still here.

The short answer is they won't. Not unless they can get pre-orders and people downloading in KU on day one. And the only way that happens is lying about being Bot.

Most of those doing bot drek don't actually realize that. They're sold on the idea that you put a book on KDP, and it makes money on it's own.

The number of books going in isn't a problem. Most of them just plink in and sink towards the bottom of the bottomless pit.

They get visibility the same way we do, which basically means, mostly they don't.
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Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2025, 02:32:45 AM »
That's Trad talk.

It's not Trad talk.  It's just one of those things that keeps getting repeated year after year after year.  I've heard it pretty much all my life.  If it were true, no one would be reading anything by now.

We also hear there is a glut of reading material and more being added all the time.  If fewer and fewer people are reading, there would be fewer and fewer books being published which isn't happening.

Also, there are books being made into movies or TV shows all the time.  They don't just grab random books or books no one is reading and make them into a film or TV show.  They pick books that have sold and have a potential audience already.  If fewer people were reading books, fewer and fewer books would be made into movies or TV shows.

The idea that fewer and fewer people are reading is just a convenient excuse for authors who aren't selling or have stopped writing.
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R. C.

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2025, 05:35:39 AM »
That's Trad talk.

...

The idea that fewer and fewer people are reading is just a convenient excuse for authors who aren't selling or have stopped writing.

I don't think the argument is that fewer people are reading books. The percentage of people choosing to search for a free, or nearly free, reading option is increasing.

Of course, there are exceptions. However, given choice and convenience, cheap and easy wins. 

R.C.
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2025, 07:58:44 AM »
That's an interesting point. Whenever pricing discussions come up, though, there are a lot of people saying the exact opposite--that selling too cheap makes the product look like trash and reduces sales. In an odd coincidence, yesterday, an old school friend was telling me about some he knew who had to increase charges at his business because people thought he couldn't possibly deliver quality service for the money he was charging.

I think it depends on circumstances--or maybe on the buyer. I've heard anecdotes about luxury goods making more sales by upping prices, and yet the local dollar store is always packed to the rafters. But that's probably two different kinds of buyers.

I know that one school of thought on AI is that human authors will become the luxury good. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.

 


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Lorri Moulton

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2025, 08:18:00 AM »
I think pricing is part of our brand.  We decide if we want to be the dollar store, a luxury good, or somewhere in between.  :cheers


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R. C.

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2025, 08:49:16 AM »
I think pricing is part of our brand.  We decide if we want to be the dollar store, a luxury good, or somewhere in between.  :cheers

Of course, this presumes you have a brand.   :doh:  If I have a brand, it's similar to what my dogs leave in the yard.

R.C.
 

Lorri Moulton

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2025, 09:24:03 AM »
You're actually very good at branding.


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Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2025, 09:27:38 AM »
Overall price is a consideration too.

As an example, when I was a kid, I had a few comic books.  I appreciate the medium but I was never heavily into them.  So, I only had a few.  I don't remember if I bought them or if my mother bought them for me or a mix of both.  I don't remember why I picked the ones I have and so on.  I think I have a handful of comic books total.  Maybe a half dozen?

Fast forward to about ten years ago or so when I got my iPad.  There was an app for digital comics.  Some of you might recall the Star Trek & Doctor Who crossover comic.  It was a four or five part series.  I think that was one of my earliest buys in the app.  And then I bought more comics.  I have more digital comics than physical comics now.

I stopped buying them probably a year or two after I started and haven't bought another comic book since.

Here is why . . .

There was one comic that was a digital conversion of an older physical comic book.  It was a two part story.  I bought part one.  Last I checked, they still had not digitized the second part.  So, I paid for and only ever got to read half a story.  Don't know how it ends.  Part two would have been a guaranteed buy.  (Granted, they might have released it by now but the point is that making people wait too long for the next in series is not good.)

Annoying as that is, that's also kind of minor.  The bigger issue was that comic books these days are apparently heavily serialized.  Way back when, if you bought a comic book, you got a complete story.  Sometimes, there'd be a two-part story, like the aforementioned.  But, in at least the physical comic books I have, one comic book meant one complete story.  Sometimes, you might even get two stories in one book!

But, not now.  There was a comic that sounded interesting.  First book was free or 99 cents.  Maybe $1.99.  Anyway, it was inexpensive.  So, I got it and got hooked on the story.  Bought the next book for $2.99 or $3.99 or whatever it was.  The story wasn't finished.  So, I thought, maybe it's four or five issues like that Star Trek & Doctor Who crossover.  Nope.  The story didn't resolve until issue 24.  And, even then, there was a setup for more.

Bottom line is that was a lot.  If you figure even $2.99 for 23 issues (the first being less or free), that's $68.77 which is a lot for a single story no matter how you look at it.

At that point, it was like, yeah, nope.  I'm done.  It would be one thing if each comic were a standalone story but with elements that connected to a larger story arc, but the way this was done, it's like, no.  I tried others and they were pretty much the same.

That was the point that I stopped buying digital comics.  I like to know how stories end, but I'm not going to pay $60+ to find out.  At least not again.  Once was enough.  Learned my lesson.

On the flip side, I am sure that if each of those $2.99 or $3.99 comics told a standalone, complete story within the 24-episode story arc, I'd feel differently.  It would have cost me the same, but I'd feel like I had purchased 24 stories (or 23 if the first were free) rather than one, plus reading the whole story arc would have been a bonus.  Paying $3.99 for a complete story is a better deal than paying $68 for a complete story.
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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2025, 03:43:19 PM »
And yet, the never ending story is getting very popular now.

The number of novel series crossing 20 books is going up. And they tend to be serial in nature.

That comic books are doing the same thing is not surprising. But that's probably driven by the movie industry sourcing so heavily from comics these days.

The uncompleted story is an industry problem. Trad started it by not doing book 2 or 3 in a trilogy because 1 didn't sell well enough. Indies saw that as validation for not doing book 2 for the same reason.

So now people only buy completed series, or completed trilogies.

That causes so many book 1s to fail as well, and its a vicious circle unless the author commits to finishing a story regardless of how it sells.

That's partly why even though I'm writing novel 96 in the same universe, and it's less than 5 years on from where I started, I still end series and start again somewhere else. It gives a sense of completion to each series.

What should be happening, and isn't, is the fact the series is serial isn't being highlighted enough. But anyone looking at my blurbs should be figuring that out easily.

Genres: Space Opera/Fantasy/Cyberpunk, with elements of LitRPG and GameLit, with a touch of the Supernatural. Also Spiritual and Games.



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Jeff Tanyard

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2025, 06:17:54 PM »
That's an interesting point. Whenever pricing discussions come up, though, there are a lot of people saying the exact opposite--that selling too cheap makes the product look like trash and reduces sales. In an odd coincidence, yesterday, an old school friend was telling me about some he knew who had to increase charges at his business because people thought he couldn't possibly deliver quality service for the money he was charging.

I think it depends on circumstances--or maybe on the buyer. I've heard anecdotes about luxury goods making more sales by upping prices, and yet the local dollar store is always packed to the rafters. But that's probably two different kinds of buyers.

I know that one school of thought on AI is that human authors will become the luxury good. It will be interesting to see how that shakes out.


I would add that genre makes a big difference.  Some genres can command higher prices than others, and there's only so much that individual authors can do about that.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2025, 09:22:51 PM »
Yes, that's a good point. It also ties back to the digital comics issue. A reader would certainly pay $3.99 (or more) for each novel that's part of a series if the series was enjoyable. Comics provide a lot less reading for the same price. (The ones at graphic novel length do provide more reading, but the price is also higher.) Of course, comics have the overhead of having graphic artists whose work takes a lot of time and contributes significantly to the production cost. Perhaps standalones would work better--certainly true for the consumer. But if a series keeps going, I guess someone is buying it.


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PJ Post

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2025, 10:20:21 PM »
Every business has a brand whether they want it or not - a brand is what the market (in our case, readers and potential readers) think of you. The idea of Branding as a function of business is to influence and leverage that expectation.

___

I'm not sure how anyone can believe people are reading more. My research shows that the book publishing market has contracted by more than 25% in the last 30 years - and that's accounting for self-publishing and inflation. Where have all the magazines gone? Newspapers? The mid-list? Recent studies have shown that college students can't even remain focused long enough to actually read an entire novel. How can any of that bode well for the future of self-publishing?

And now we're going to have bespoke, on demand AI book generating apps.

How does any of this point to business as usual?

 
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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2025, 11:06:46 PM »
I'm not sure how anyone can believe people are reading more. My research shows that the book publishing market has contracted by more than 25% in the last 30 years - and that's accounting for self-publishing and inflation.

Well, where is that coming from?

When you say "book publishing market", I assume that ignores Indie publishing completely? Because all the stats out there do.

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Where have all the magazines gone?

Still around as far as I can see.

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Newspapers?

Went online. The paper versions are still there, but here in Australia that's mainstream media owned by a single individual who doesn't even live here anymore. No-one trusts it anymore but the indoctrinated.

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The mid-list?

Alive and kicking. Top 500k books on Amazon has the mid-list.

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Recent studies have shown that college students can't even remain focused long enough to actually read an entire novel. How can any of that bode well for the future of self-publishing?

Let's see those recent studies.

A lot of Gen Z listen instead of read. That is problematical because we are being screwed by Audible, but it doesn't mean our books are not being 'read' by them.

The problem we have with Gen Z is most of them can't really afford to buy books often anyway. Plus they're being saddled with huge debts. That's more or a problem than their attention span.

Let's see some stats on how many Gen Z have a KU subscription?

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And now we're going to have bespoke, on demand AI book generating apps.

Still waiting for them. Not holding my breathe either.

Still waiting for a bot generated novel to enter the top 500k on Amazon US labelled as a Bot generated book too.

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How does any of this point to business as usual?

Because right now, it is business as usual.

All you're doing is doom and glooming without any evidence there is a real problem.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2025, 12:33:35 AM »
Quote
My research shows that the book publishing market has contracted by more than 25% in the last 30 years - and that's accounting for self-publishing and inflation
In general, I would trust your research. However, where are you getting stats on self publishing? As we know, self published books without ISBNs don't ever get included in the available industry stats. That means pretty much every ebook sale on Amazon is in no publishing stat, ever, and that's where the bulk of self published sales occur. Paper books have to have an ISBN, but most of us don't make most of our sales on paper books.

Before Data Guy (admittedly, only able to estimate indie sales) went behind a paywall, his stats showed that book sales were actually increasing when the industry said they were declining. Even after he went behind a paywall, he did a presentation on fantasy sales that ended up on YouTube for a while. It showed that while the industry was complaining about a decline in fantasy sales, they were, in fact, increasing rapidly.

All of that data is older, but where is the available fresh evidence? I search and find things like how much the average self published book sells. I'm not sure how even that's calculated, but I can't see any global data on total self published book sales, nor any accurate count on how many self published books there are. (Bowker has a figure for how many ISBNs have been sold to self publishers, but that exclude any books without a paperback or hardback version. And the raw number of books is not at all the same as a sales total or a revenue total. Also, did they count ISBN sales to single-author publishers purchased by the "publisher"?

You see where I'm going. Maybe you dug around and found a secret data stash that takes a long time to locate. Such data as I can find easily is just little fragments from which it would be impossible to extrapolate a large picture. If I subscribed to Statista, I'd get a 2025 report (based on data through 2023), saying that revenue had declined only slightly from earlier years and was relatively stable. That sounds like confirmation of the earlier pattern continuing. Add the unreported self published titles, and you'd probably be seeing an increase in revenue.

 


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Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2025, 01:49:17 AM »
As a reader, what would be the point of a custom AI-generated book?

On the surface, it sounds appealing.  I'm sure we've all read books or seen movies or TV series where we enjoyed them at the start but, at some point, they went in directions we didn't like.  Like, I still think they should not have killed off Kirk in Star Trek: Generations.  So, an AI-generated redo (in film or book form) would have some surface-level appeal.  I could watch (or read) the story I think they should have told.

But, then, so what?  In the official storyline, Kirk is still dead (excepting the Shatnerverse novels which brought Kirk back).  I could use AI to generate sequels that have Kirk still alive or I could have AI generate what I deem a suitable ending.  But, what does it matter?  In the end, it would be no different than me simply imagining whatever outcome I prefer.  No AI required for that.

It could be argued that I could share my custom AI-generated redo with like-minded people but they would probably already have generated their own redos with AI.  So, it becomes all sort of meaningless.

Plus, it's not like a Choose Your Own Adventure story where you are choosing your own path through the story.  It's not like a Holodeck holo-novel where you are a participant and it's more game than story.  What you have is an alternative fiction, designed for you and only you.  Will there be book clubs where people talk about the books they had written for them?  Who cares?  Why should I care about what you had generated for you when I have AI generate stuff for me to read?

And then what's the whole point of the experience?  You could have AI generate whatever you want.  How long before that becomes boring?  We don't always know what we want and, often, a good story surprises us.  One could argue AI could surprise us, but, if we don't like it, we just have it redo it again.  It takes something out of the whole experience.  And, I think it would get boring.

If there was demand for something like that, Choose Your Own Adventure books would be the most popular category.  I don't think they're even in the Top 20.  AI generated books would be even less popular, I think, because, again, it would get boring and also you could just imagine whatever you want and you don't need AI to use your imagination.

So, I don't think we need to worry too much about AI generated books, except for them flooding the virtual bookshelves and making it even harder for authentic books to be found.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2025, 05:19:19 AM »
I've wondered about bespoke AI books as well. It's one of those ideas that does sound neat, but I wonder how many people would find it appealing to actually do it.

A general prompt would almost certainly produce something the prompter wasn't expecting. Really specific prompting might come closer to meeting expectations, but the more work up front, the less likely it is for someone to go through all that.

Also, part of the joy of reading is discovery. You appreciate some neat thing a writer has done. You get caught by surprise by an unexpected twist. How is that possible if you're laying out in advance what you want with any specificity at all?

Even we, as writers, can be surprised by what happens during the creative process. The characters don't always want to go the way that we think they'll go when we first start out. Readers might initially get a kick out of creating a book, but I can't escape the feeling that most of them will either be disappointed in the result (too far from what they wanted) or ultimately bored with it (too close to what they wanted, so no surprises).

Maybe a computer that could read minds? Or just plain magic? I could learn to live with books plopping out of their that were just exactly what I wanted to read at that moment. But that's far, far beyond what we could do at the moment.


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alhawke

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2025, 05:29:30 AM »
I don't think we're #5. My newest theory is that science and math should be pushed up there. It's science and math that's gonna be overrun by AI and computers, not artwork. Fiction is a form of artwork. Maybe nonfiction is threatened, but even nonfiction can be put together in artful ways.

I think everyone's going batty over writing because of ChatGPT inroads in creating written composition. But, don't know about you, but I find AI writing by ChatGPT formulaic and boring.

I spent an hour last night playing around with ChatGPT. I was curious what AI thought of me as a writer as I've wanted to improve myself--you guys can try this to. Ask ChatGPT to write in your writing style. I actually learned stuff. I already knew I write in short phrases, to the point with less flowery descriptions. It works great for action but not so great for calmer scenes. ChatGPT thinks this style goes well with thrillers and suspense. Well, my witch stuff supernatural suspense.

But I also found loads of errors in ChatGPT's sources. It resourced books not written by me mixed with actual books I've written.

When I asked ChatGPT to write a story using my voice, it came up with a rather boring tale of witches and college. It was about 50% on target with my writing style--which is pretty darn impressive, tbh. BUT it wasn't me and the tale came across dull and uninspiring (I hope my stuff isn't dull and uninspiring to readers  Grin). In fact, some of it felt more like a comedian aping me than someone given an honest attempt at writing in my style.

Fiction writing is art. We're not #5, imo. I think math and science is gonna be up there. Artists and performers have a future. There's some uplifting ways for you all to think about all this.
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #25 on: August 19, 2025, 05:31:31 AM »
Also, part of the joy of reading is discovery. You appreciate some neat thing a writer has done. You get caught by surprise by an unexpected twist. How is that possible if you're laying out in advance what you want with any specificity at all?

Star Trek: The Next Generation kind of touched on that.  There was an episode where Data played Sherlock Holmes on the Holodeck and there was no challenge because he had read and knew all the Sherlock Holmes stories, so he wasn't so much solving a mystery as remembering it and acting it out.  And that's when they screwed up and asked the computer to generate a villain capable of defeating Data (rather than Sherlock Holmes) and that's when the computer came up with a Professor Moriarty that became self-aware.  But that's not the point.  The point was that the others, especially Doctor Polaski, who participated in the holonovel with Data kind of got bored because they weren't really participating and being part of the mystery and were instead basically just re-enacting the story, which would be fine if you that's what your goal was--after all, they did perform stage plays and such--but if you want to get wrapped up in the mystery and actually have to solve it, if you're playing with someone who solves it by remembering the story, there's no fun in that.

I don't see where custom AI generated novels would be much different from that.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #26 on: August 19, 2025, 05:36:16 AM »
When I asked ChatGPT to write a story using my voice, it came up with a rather boring tale of witches and college. It was about 50% on target with my writing style--which is pretty darn impressive, tbh. BUT it wasn't me and the tale came across dull and uninspiring (I hope my stuff isn't dull and uninspiring to readers  Grin). In fact, some of it felt more like a comedian aping me than someone given an honest attempt at writing in my style.

If you want to have some fun with your writing, you can do what I did a number of years ago, which I had long forgotten.

The other day, I stumbled upon a chapter from one of my books with the file name indicating it was a translation.  I had had a couple of my short stories translated into other languages, but, so far, none of my novels.  So I was curious what this translation was.

I opened the file and then I remembered.  Many years ago, I had taken a chapter from that novel and copied it into an online translator.  I had it translated from English into German or something.  From there, I had it translated into another language.  Then, from that language, into another.  And, finally, back into English again.

Do that and you may get stuff more amusing than AI.  Also makes you wonder how stories actually read when translated into other languages to readers of that language.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 
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PJ Post

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2025, 10:34:28 PM »
The point of bespoke generated novels is profit. The average reader - not writers - is fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction. And it's only getting better.

Rumor has it that the music streaming services are doing this as we speak, presumably to avoid paying Creatives at all. Rumor also has it that Netflix is creating movies and shows designed to be watched in the background, known as second screen or ambient tv.

This is like arguing about cliffhangers. Writers don't like them. Readers do. Writers don't like AI replacing them - readers don't care.

___

https://www.arts.gov/stories/blog/2024/federal-data-reading-pleasure-all-signs-show-slump

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/11/the-elite-college-students-who-cant-read-books/679945/

https://www.mcgill.ca/oss/article/critical-thinking/reading-crisis-perspective

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/whats-happening-to-reading

___

Society changes. Horses to the left and all of the outdated infrastructure necessary to support them, cars on the right and all of the emerging infrastructure to support them. And by infrastructure, I mean: jobs, businesses, processes, factories, products, logistics, technology - and the buying public.



It would be silly to assume that writing and publishing are immune from such changes.

___

If I'm right, my recommendations might save your career. If I'm wrong, my suggestions will make you way more successful.

___

For some people, the joy of reading is discovery, for many it's familiar escapism, be it Romance or Men's Adventure. And when it comes to business, we must be mindful not to project our own preferences onto the market. See cliffhanger comments above.

 

TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #28 on: August 19, 2025, 10:54:28 PM »
The average reader - not writers - is fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction.

Total BS!  :rant :evil2: :HB

Before I was a writer, I was a reader.

I was a reader for 50 years before I started writing.

And in all that time, I was very picky about what I read. I used to visit the book shops every week, sorted through what was new, and I went home with a new book maybe once a month. Sometimes longer.

When I discovered Kindle, I found a lot more books to read, but was still very picky about which ones I got far into in the samples. And getting as far as a sample was even pickier.

As a writer, my selection of what to read hasn't really changed.

So take your 'readers are fine with derivative, good enough AI fiction' bull f*****g sh** somewhere else, because you do NOT NOT NOT speak for me, now, before, or ever.

And before you say I'm not average, damn right I was.

And frankly, the average reader would be insulted by that comment. Like I am.
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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #29 on: August 19, 2025, 11:00:28 PM »

This is like arguing about cliffhangers. Writers don't like them. Readers do.

And yet, the only cliffhangers I've ended on had very definite reader declines for the next book.

The only time they don't matter is after the series is complete, and people have the next book already there to read immediately, and know the series was completed.

But while a series is in progress, cliffhangers can drop the number of pre-orders for the next book significantly, and severely drop the number of people who complete the series as it's being written. Once you lose those people, most of the time, you never get them back.

There is always a drop off with each new book, but books that end in cliffhangers have much larger drop offs after them.

So again, a generalization that isn't any part of my experience.

Readers DO care.
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Bill Hiatt

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #30 on: August 20, 2025, 12:06:54 AM »
We've ended up with an interesting discussion that seems to be flowing in several different directions at once.

PJ's point on diversification is certainly worth considering. It doesn't hurt to have multiple revenue streams, at the very least. We do need to be conscious of the fact that there are only 24 hours in a day, though. A writer can only do so many things, particularly if they involve separate workflows. At the risk of stating the obvious, books and YouTube videos are very different things, requiring different kinds of content and different skill sets.

As far as the audience changes are concerned, it's true that there are many more competing activities than there used to be. But even some of the articles PJ linked provide caveats, for example, the reference to the fact that people have been complaining about the decline of reading for generations (the example goes back to 1907, but I think we can find earlier ones). Also, there seems to be a disconnect between sales figures (which, if we estimate some increase from unincluded self published texts, are either stable or rising) and surveys that show people reading less. One of the linked articles suggests that buying a book doesn't mean the book gets read. But if the disconnect is caused by that, and we want to take a ruthlessly businesslike attitude toward the issue, we make the same amount of money on sales whether the books actually get read or not. That's not my preferred outcome, nor probably anyone else's. But from a strictly business standpoint, sales are what matter.

There is one other point I'd like to touch on briefly. Some of the linked articles reference students no longer being required to read full books. But as another source points out,
Quote
There is not a lot of information on how many books American students are required to read in school. But in general, students are reading less. Federal data from last year shows 14 percent of young people said they read for fun every day. In 2012, that percentage was 27 percent.
https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/do-students-in-american-schools-read-long-books-anymore-/7789204.html
Notice the weird disconnect between the statement about reading in schools, which is then joined with survey data about reading for fun--two very different things. Always be on the lookout for these kinds of odd conflations. They're common.

Also, there is a tendency to blame schools for whatever is happening. I don't doubt that incoming college students said they'd never been asked to read a whole book before, but I question how often that's actually true. I just checked with my old high school, sort of a typical, middle-class institution, and every English class requires at least five books per year. (At the school where I taught, the number is higher.) Checks of several other schools didn't turn up a single one where the reading of books wasn't required.

There has been some tendency to try to introduce more contemporary titles that correspond to students' actual interest. And there seems to have been some slowdown in reading during the pandemic. But I'm having a hard time finding evidence for the kind of sweeping degradation implied by some of the linked articles.

On the issue of whether or not readers will accept AI, a quick search turns up no hard data, just a lot of people speculating. Some writers like AI, and some don't. I see no reason to assume that most readers will accept it unless a writer has worked on the books enough to make them at least sound human. But I wonder why it is that the AI companies come down so hard against labeling if they don't think it will make any difference to people.

Will AI just keep getting better? Maybe. But there are a number of barriers. And remember the recent incident with Grok, when Musk was trying to make it less "woke," and ending up having it call itself MechaHitler and recommend the immediate opening of concentration camps. To be fair, that didn't last too long, but it illustrates that recrafting Ai is not always the easiest thing in the world to do. 


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TimothyEllis

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #31 on: August 20, 2025, 12:23:03 AM »
Observation from a couple of the articles linked above.

They talk about reading percentages going down. But they don't correlate them with populations going up. As the population increases, the reading population as a number goes up, but the percentage could be still be going down. So the number of readers could be increasing, but the percentage doesn't show that.

They're talking about people reporting how many books they read in a year. I wouldn't have a clue how many books I read in the last year. I don't store that sort of information, and I sure as hell don't remember it.

The vast majority of those answers are most likely guesses. And probably wildly wrong. Then they're released as stats that get misinterpreted.

They're also ignoring the percentage of whale readers there are, and how they totally change the dynamic.

For every person who doesn't read a book in a year, there's someone who reads 20. Or reads 300.

As much as they try to gather stats, they're all subject to human memory, which is inherently unreliable.

The only reliable stat is gross income from sales and things like KU and the online reading sites. But we don't have more than half of that data.

So all those articles do is bang on about information that is hardly credible.

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Post-Doctorate D

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #32 on: August 20, 2025, 01:53:41 AM »
I used to keep track of the books I read by writing down the time and date I finished reading a book in a journal.

So, I would have been able to tell you how many books I read in a year.

I found that kind of got in the way of the reading experience.  I'd have to finish reading near the journal so I could write it down.  Or, if I was sidetracked for a while then got back to reading, where'd I put that journal?

And then what I would do is not read the last paragraph or last line of a book so, technically, I didn't finish it and didn't have to bother writing it down in the journal yet.

And then, eventually, I just finished reading the book without worrying about keeping track of when I finished reading it.
"To err is human but to really foul things up requires AI."
 

PJ Post

Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #33 on: August 20, 2025, 10:08:37 PM »
The point of the articles is to highlight that the reading and publishing world is experience meaningful change - change that will affect readership and sales. KDP and self-publishing was a massive change, so we've seen similar disruption first hand. Smartphones were a disruption. Social media is another. AI is the latest.

To remain relevant, publishing will need to change too.

 

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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #34 on: August 20, 2025, 10:17:43 PM »
Smartphones were a disruption.

How do you work that one out?

With the smartphone being perfected, it was finally possible to read a book on your phone easily.

That was a bonus, not a disruption.

Plenty of people now read while they commute on trains and busses, now that they don't need a tablet to do so.

Where's the disruption?
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Re: We're #5. Well, this isn't good.
« Reply #35 on: August 20, 2025, 11:13:21 PM »
Smartphones were a disruption.

How do you work that one out?

With the smartphone being perfected, it was finally possible to read a book on your phone easily.

That was a bonus, not a disruption.

Plenty of people now read while they commute on trains and busses, now that they don't need a tablet to do so.

Where's the disruption?

When I was a technology road-warrior, I read ferociously.  Using my phone, on planes, in taxis, wherever, I easily read over 200 books per year for over a decade.

R.C.